Campaign countdown: 24 March

What do voters think of David Cameron's decision to rule out a third term in Downing Street? Our correspondent Vicki Young was in Hove earlier to find out. You can watch her package here.

If the Conservatives attempt to form a minority government and enough MPs vote against their Queen's Speech the administration would fall at the first hurdle and the leader of the opposition would have a shot at forming a government.

That's how parliamentary democracy works in the event of a hung Parliament.

And yet the Conservatives are saying that by planning to vote against a government he opposes Alex Salmond has "confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people in order to make Ed Miliband prime minister".

It is part of their continuing attempt to portray Mr Miliband as a weak leader whose strings are being pulled by Mr Salmond.

This kind of language causes despair among Tories north of the border who fear that the party in London is waltzing into an SNP trap.

They know that many voters in Scotland will read the phrase "democratic will of the British people" and hear "democratic will of the English people".

Because, if it is illegitimate for Scottish MPs, from whatever party, to vote against one government and support another in the British parliament, then what, voters may ask, is the point of the union?

Who is dancing to Mr Salmond's tune now?

Here's our story on Alex Salmond's comments to the New Statesman about a future Conservative minority government. He told the magazine the SNP would block such a government by voting down its Queen's Speech. The Conservatives say the former SNP leader "has confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people".

If Argentina "got the Falklands", could Britain get it back? Lord West, who was First Sea Lord between 2002 and 2006, says Argentina isn't capable of taking the Falklands at the moment, but British forces wouldn't be able to take it back if they did because they don't have aircraft carriers.

Simon Jenkins, from the Guardian, says it's "ridiculous" to "pretend" the UK can defend the Falklands indefinitely. The UK will have to do a deal with Argentina eventually, he says.

Newsnight is taking a look at the possible candidates in a future Conservative leadership race. You can watch it on the live coverage tab above.

A bit of background to Alex Salmond's comment today on the SNP voting against a minority Conservative government's Queen's Speech. Back in November, when she took over the SNP leadership, Nicola Sturgeon hinted at something similar: she said her party would "never, ever put the Tories into government." The Telegraph covered the story at the time.

tweets: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories still tied: CON 35%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%

More from Philip Hammond on the Germanwings crash in the French Alps earlier. The foreign secretary said: "This is a tragic incident for those involved and their families, I send my deepest condolences to those who have lost family or friends.

"I don't want to speculate on numbers of British nationals involved until we have completed our checks on all the passenger information.

"However, based on the information available to us, it is sadly likely that there were some British nationals on board the flight. We are providing consular assistance and will give further help as more information becomes available. We are working closely with the French, German and Spanish authorities, and the airline, to establish the facts."

tweets: Green Party leader Natalie Bennett says her last appearance on LBC was 'absolutely devastating' but it demonstrates she's 'a human being'

BBCCopyright: BBC

Here's our story on Tim Wilson, above, standing down as a UKIP candidate over comments made by the party's Scottish MEP about a Scottish government minister. Mr Wilson said Mr Coburn had produced "what I can only describe as an Islamaphobic insult, and that's simply not acceptable".

David Cameron has, as you've probably noticed, said he won't stand for a third term as prime minister. But he pledged he would serve a full second term. So when would a Tory leadership take place? Could David Cameron stand down as leader of the Conservatives but remain as prime minster? James Landale has been looking at the possibility.

The Conservatives' leader in Scotland, Ruth Davidson, says Alex Salmond's plan to wield influence over Labour in a hung parliament "scares many, many Scots".

Mr Salmond told the Marr Programme on Sunday that an SNP bloc at Westminster after the election would "hold the power" and move the Labour party in a "more progressive" direction.

Writing in the Evening Standard, Ms Davidson says Mr Salmond does not speak for most Scottish people.

"When Salmond talks of planning to hold a weak Miliband government to ransom, that doesn't just scare people south of the border, it scares many, many Scots too," she wrote. "He is simply doing what nationalists do: trying to conflate the national interest with his own narrow, ideological one and paint anyone who disagrees as unpatriotic.

She adds: "It's cheap, dirty politics designed to send out the message that everyone north of the border is equally Scottish but some are more Scottish than others. The majority of people in Scotland want no truck with this version of divide-and-rule."

And that's all from Free Speech tonight. Were you watching? What did you think? Email us or tweet @bbcpolitics to let us know.

Was David Cameron right to say he won't seek a third term as prime minister? The panel is split. Toby Young says it was a "gaffe", but Ian Birrell says it was "honest" and there should be more honesty in politics.

Sam Gyimah says the PM isn't obsessed with power - that's what came out in the answer he gave. And there is a lot of "strength and depth" in the party to beat Labour, he adds.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Do the Tories support women's rights? Luisa Zissman says she wouldn't consider herself a feminist - there's too much "extreme feminism", she says, but she does support women's rights. Her answer attracts a few boos and some heckling from the audience. Toby Young highlights that the Tories gave women the vote and the first female prime minister was a Conservative.

Sam Gyimah says the gender pay gap is at the narrowest point it's been for a long time. Delivering on that is better than a pink bus, he adds in a dig at Harriet Harman's campaign vehicle.

"If you tax the rich too much, the rich are going to go," says Luisa Zissman on Free Speech. "And then you're going to have no one to tax... then where are you going to get the money for your housing?" The young audience aren't impressed with that answer - one calls for loopholes to be closed so people don't keep money offshore. The government should spend less time demonising people on benefits and more on that, the audience member says.

Why isn't David Cameron at this debate? Sam Gyimah says he speaks on behalf of the PM, who asked him personally to attend. The PM "does value what we're discussing". A number of members of the audience don't seem happy.

The rising number of apprenticeships is one of the "untold success stories" of the government, says Conservative MP Sam Gyimah. There have been 2 million so far and that number will rise to 3 million in the next parliament, he adds.

Journalist Toby Young, on the BBC's Free Speech show, says he wouldn't be surprised if UKIP support falls to the single digits. The only way to get a referendum on Europe is to vote Conservative, he says.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Are the Tories prioritising policies for old people over those for youngsters? Sam Gyimah says the government isn't against young people - the biggest thing it can do is make sure jobs are available.

It's "flat out wrong" to say the government has done nothing for young people, says Toby Young. Many jobs have been created, he says, most of which are full-time and well-paid. But an audience member isn't convinced - she suggests it might be about stats rather than creating proper, well-paid jobs.

Cutting the top rate of income tax and introducing the so-called bedroom tax are two mistakes made by the current government, says journalist Ian Birrell.

Will the Conservatives increase VAT? Sam Gyimah says Labour is "scaremongering" on the issue and the Conservatives have "no plans" to do so.

Sam Gyimah tells the Free Speech audience we are all part of families - that's why his party talks about "hard working families". He says the "real threat" on 7 May is "a party that wants to break up our country" - the SNP.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Has David Cameron tried too hard to attract right-wing voters, the panel is asked. Ian Birrell says yes and the party should be looking to the future, not the past. But Tory MP Sam Gyimah says the party is the future and lists a number of the things it has done in government. He says the Conservatives are planning for a majority, but won't explicitly rule out a coalition with UKIP.

David Cameron turned down an invitation to appear on Free Speech tonight, says presenter Rick Edwards. But we've got Sam Gyimah, Toby Young, Ian Birrell and Luisa Zissman on the panel.

At 20:00 GMT, BBC Three will be showing the latest instalment of the Free Speech discussions, tonight focussing on Conservative policy. We'll bring you updates and you can watch on the Live Coverage tab above. The audience is seated and ready to go.

BBCCopyright: BBC

MPs have tonight agreed further regulations to toughen up counter-terrorism powers. Security Minister James Brokenshire won support for the statutory instruments which bring into force powers contained in the Counter Terrorism and Security Act 2015. The bill became law last month.

The new powers make clear the Prevent duty - which obligates staff in public institutions such as universities or prisons to report extremist behaviour - applies in Scotland in the same way as across the rest of the country. Further regulations provide court rules for temporary exclusion orders (TEO) which can be imposed on Britons who leave the country to fight in foreign conflicts. The orders restrict the conditions of their return home.

Scottish readers who want to be in the audience for BBC Scotland's pre-election debates can apply here.

tweets: "People have forgotten what politics is. We need to put people back into it."- @caitlinmoran #redboxdebate

In the run up to the election, BBC News has produced short Instagram videos profiling the party leaders.

You can watch David Cameron's profile here and Ed Miliband's here.

The Standard's political editor Joe Murphy thinks David Cameron has opened a "Pandora's box" by saying he will not seek a third term as prime minister. He writes: "In the Westminster bubble, there is a remorseless logic that forbids a leader from naming a retirement date. By ruling out a third term, Cameron has opened a question of who will take over. Since voters in 2020 will not elect a party whose leadership is unresolved, the power struggle must take place during the 2015 to 2020 parliament. The next leader will expect to write his or her manifesto, so the sitting PM will have less say in the country's long-term future."

PACopyright: PA

A UKIP election candidate has quit the party in a row over comments made by Scotland's UKIP MEP. Tim Wilson will not stand for the party in South Northamptonshire in the aftermath of the comments made by David Coburn about Scottish Government minister Humza Yousaf. In a newspaper interview Mr Coburn said: "Humza Yousaf, or as I call him, Abu Hamza". He has since apologised.

But Mr Wilson told the BBC: "If Mr Farage cannot realise that what he has said is wrong, and what was said is wrong, and that it is is not a joke - if he can't take this seriously, Mr Farage too needs to consider his position and go."

PACopyright: PA

A bit more on BBC Scotland's TV debate plans, announced earlier.

One will see the leaders in Scotland of the Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and UKIP debate in Aberdeen on 8 April. A final leaders' debate - also being screened by BBC - is planned for 3 May in Edinburgh and will see Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon go head to head with the Labour leader north of the border Jim Murphy, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats.

Earlier this month, broadcaster STV confirmed it will screen a TV debate between the four leaders exactly one month before the May 7 general election. But with Scottish Greens not due to take part, party co-convener Patrick Harvie said they could consult lawyers over a possible legal challenge to the debate.

A Conservative spokesman has responded to Alex Salmond saying the SNP would vote against a minority Conservative government's Queen's Speech. The spokesman said: "Alex Salmond has confirmed he would sabotage the democratic will of the British people in order to make Ed Miliband prime minister. That would mean chaos for Britain, with weak Ed Miliband dancing to Alex Salmond's tune. The only way to protect Trident, keep Britain together and safeguard the economy is to vote Conservative."

PACopyright: PA

A system to sack MPs between elections has completed its parliamentary passage and will become law. MPs agreed to all the Lords amendments to the Recall of MPs Bill following a brief Commons debate. The legislation is one of the final pieces of the coalition agenda to head to the statute book ahead of May's general election.

tweets: Strikes me Alex Salmond is playing the media like a fiddle. Press seem excited about him saying exactly the same obvious thing in many ways.

Our deputy political editor James Landale has been on PM talking about his recent interviews with Ed Miliband and David Cameron - both of which, of course, featured their kitchens.

He says kitchens are someone's "home space" - inviting journalists there relaxes the host, meaning it's a good place for interviews.

On the David Cameron piece yesterday, in which the prime minister ruled out a third term in Downing Street, he repeats that the question was not pre-planned. He tells Eddie Mair he thinks the prime minister had thought about it before, though - hence his quick answer and Shredded Wheat quip.

In his New Statesman interview, Alex Salmond also has a pop at Ed Miliband for ruling out a coalition with the SNP. He says: "If I were him, I wouldn't have ruled it out. I wouldn't give an inch to the Tory press or to the Tory party . . . Nicola has always said that she thought full coalition was unlikely but she didn't rule it out: she said it was highly unlikely."

tweets: A Tory-SNP deal (not a coalition) is v risky for both. But *if* the Tories offered the SNP what the Nats *say* they want how do they say no?

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

Is there any chance at all of a deal between the Conservatives and the SNP after the election? Alex Salmond says no. Last night at an event in London, he told a journalist his party would not strike a deal with the Tories for full fiscal autonomy. Now, the former SNP leader has said his party would try and topple a minority Conservative government. He told the New Statesman: "The Tories would have to go effectively straight for a vote of confidence, usually the Queen's Speech…and we'd be voting against." more here.

Much of the political talk today, for obvious reasons, has been about the identity of the next Conservative leader. But how about the other coalition party? Lib Dem Business Secretary Vince Cable has had some pretty strong words for another of the potential successors to Nick Clegg, Tim Farron. Here's what Mr Cable told Buzzfeed: "He's a very good campaigning MP, but he's never been in government and has never had to make difficult decisions and I think his credibility isn't great. You know, he's an entertaining speaker and has a bit of a fan club. But I suspect he would not be seen as a very credible leader, at least now. Maybe in five, 10 years' time, things are different."

Our reporter Robin Brant has been looking at the reaction to David Cameron's revelation yesterday that he does intend to stand for a third term as prime minister. Are the potential contenders giving much away? You can watch his package here.

tweets: 46% of Green Party Cllrs support serving vegetarian only school meals

BBCCopyright: BBC

The coalition didn't make much progress in reforming party funding because the parties couldn't agree on the level of a donations cap: too low would help the Labour party, too high would damage Labour. Now the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, which has been investigating where the parties get their cash, has called for reform. Editor Rachel Oldroyd writes that review of the current legislation is now overdue. "It is certainly time for a thorough rethink," she says. "As the Bureau's past investigations have revealed there are considerable weaknesses in the rules governing disclosure of political donations and wider fundraising. The system is simply not transparent enough."

YoutubeCopyright: Youtube

Rapping hasn't formed a big part of this year's politicking, but that isn't stopping one Green candidate from taking to rhyme to undermine his Lib Dem opponents' arguments about tactical voting. Theo Simon, the Greens' candidate in Somerton and Frome, is a singer-songwriter as well as politician. He raps: "I've got no time for hacks at all / who yack: 'if it's too tight to call / be practical / vote tactical' / I want to smack them all / well no, not actually smack." It's certainly an unconventional approach to getting the message across, anyhow. Might this be the start of a trend? Let's hope so.

This is Alex Stevenson and Victoria King signing off. We've spent the day readjusting our brains to the new political reality that David Cameron has started the clock ticking on his leadership. Now our brains hurt and we need to go home, but the live blog continues with Nick Eardley at the helm. In the meantime, here's a summary of the day so far:

• David Cameron has been variously described as "arrogant", "refreshing" and "bizarre" for having ruled out a third term in Downing Street
• Politicians have been arguing over whether the government deserves credit for inflation reaching zero
• Shadow chancellor Ed Balls has pledged not to raise VAT in the next parliament
• Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has outlined the government's plans to increase Britain's military presence in the Falkland Islands
• ... and Shredded Wheat has become a serious part of the political debate.

tweets: I just can't see Boris or May or probably Osborne still being prime leadership contenders if it really is going to be in 5 years time

George Osborne has announced the telephone number for free guidance on the new pension freedoms is operational from today. The freedoms, which start on the 6 April, enable savers to dip into their pension pots as they wish rather than having to use the money to buy a pension annuity. They can ring the number, 030 0330 1001, between 8am and 10pm to book a guidance session. Phone sessions will happen from tomorrow, with face-to-face help starting on the Tuesday after Easter, once the reforms have been launched.

The BBC has a lot planned for the election, across digital, TV and radio. The press office has just published details of exactly what will be on offer.

BBC Scotland has announced plans for a debate between the Conservatives, Greens, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP and UKIP. The debate, on 8 April, will be filmed in front of an audience in Aberdeen. It will be hosted by Scotland Correspondent James Cook.

(C) British Broadcasting CorporationCopyright: (C) British Broadcasting Corporation

The Democratic Unionist Party will "put our mat out very clearly before the election" and not take part in horse-trading after 7 May, said one of its MPs. Jeffrey Donaldson said "national issues will take prominence", and the party will decide this weekend at its spring conference where it stands on supporting larger parties. But speaking to Jo Coburn on the Daily Politics, he would not say whether he backed the Conservatives or Labour.

The DUP is the fourth largest party in the current Parliament and could have a role in deciding which party leads a hung parliament, should none emerge with a majority after the election. Speaking of a potential link up with his former Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), Mr Donaldson said "maybe that will happen one day". Watch the interview

(C) British Broadcasting CorporationCopyright: (C) British Broadcasting Corporation

Politicians will make a lot of speeches in the coming weeks in order to win votes, but many of their lines will not have been written by them. Political speechwriters often either do the work, or hone the ideas of the politician they write for. Watch a Daily Politics film, where Giles Dilnot hears from two big beasts of the scriptwriting world for the view from behind the podium.

We've spoken to Downing Street to confirm that this is indeed the final full cabinet before the general election. The answer is "almost certainly", but there's always the possibility that there may be another meeting in an emergency. Most likely, though, the "co-ale-ition" (see below) and crisps they've been consuming has marked the end of a union that made it through the full five years.

tweets: Been in Hove hearing what voters think about no 3rd term for Cameron. Some admire his honesty others think it's undermined his authority.

We thought BuzzFeed's consumption of four Shredded Wheat was impressive. But Sun Nation has taken consumption of the cereal to a whole new level - finding someone who can get through 10 in one sitting. Don't believe us? The video is here. Please don't try this at home.

Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images

David Cameron has focused attention on the trio of Theresa May, George Osborne and Boris Johnson as the frontrunners in the five-year-long race to succeed him. But David Davis, who was defeated by Mr Cameron in the Conservatives' last leadership election, believes the PM's eventual successor as party leader will not be someone obvious. "I can guarantee it will be someone we haven't thought of," he told the Huffington Post in an interview before yesterday's news. "They are the people who win, that don't have enemies or any previous. That's why it can be disadvantageous to be known for something."

PACopyright: PA

Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has been talking about today's inflation figures. Mr Balls said "When David Cameron and George Osborne say living standards are rising, I think most people think they are completely out of touch with most people's lives and now they are claiming a temporary fall in world oil prices, is because of their economic policy. I don't think people will take that seriously at all.

"Low inflation is a good thing if oil prices stay low, it's also a reflection of global challenges to our economy, but the underlying reality is for most people, wages are stagnant, they've not kept pace with rising bills and we need a proper plan to start to get wages up with more skilled jobs."

Not everyone is convinced David Cameron saying he won't seek a third term is big news. Over on the Guardian, Simon Jenkins said the announcement was "blindingly obvious". More here.

tweets: "Our plans do not involve a VAT rise" - George Osborne saying literally the same thing his Tory predecessors said before raising VAT.

tweets: PA: 68% of 1,000 questioned by market research company Usurv said DC was right to make his intentions clear about a potential third term.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Chancellor George Osborne has warned there is an increasing risk Greece will have to leave the eurozone. Speaking to the Treasury Committee, Mr Osborne said the "ill will round the table is palpable between the eurozone and Greece". Mr Osborne said although he didn't think anyone wanted Greece to leave, he thought it could happen through "accident, or mis-step and misjudgement". He added he didn't think a Greek exit was the "likeliest outcome", but said it was "certainly something we need to be prepared for".

The Telegraph has just posted this video of Prime Minister David Cameron being heckled by pensioners earlier. There are some pretty tense moments in the footage from the AgeUK conference.

William Hague is in the Commons presenting the way the government proposes to finish off its legislative business before parliament wraps up on Thursday. The only slight hitch is the Finance Bill that implements the measures contained in the Budget. "Those of us who were here in 1992 will remember the Budget being delivered only a couple of days before dissolution," Mr Hague, who is leaving politics, says. He says the "time available to debate the bill is tomorrow". And that's it.

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has been speaking about David Cameron's decision not to seek a third term as prime minister. "It was the day that Tony Blair said he would go in a few years time, that in fact his authority began to disappear. The Conservative Party is held together well considering you've got these roaring wings, the Eurosceptic wing and the Europhile wing, and I suspect what he's done, perhaps unwittingly, is to launch the war of succession on the issue of Europe.

"What it does is ask questions. If you're not going to stand at the election after this, at what point in parliament will you stand down and have a new leader? I think it's something that he will come to regret."

tweets: Five times Osborne asked to give "cast iron" guarantee not to increase VAT. Each time replies "we do not need to increase VAT"

BBCCopyright: BBC

A prickly exchange between Labour MP John Mann and George Osborne. "Your answers are more Bullingdon than Bassetlaw," says the former. "You've obviously been working on that for some time," replies Mr Osborne. Then to the amusement of some in the room, Mr Mann reaches for a Greggs pasty on the desk in front of him "Here's some sustenance for you that I've brought... in order that you can have the sustenance to answer the question." Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie does not sound amused though. He can he heard wearily saying "John, John, John... do you have any more questions?" Mr Osborne, of course, got into hot water - or hot pastry perhaps - when he tried to put VAT on pasties.

BBCCopyright: BBC

In his interview with the BBC yesterday, Prime Minister David Cameron said "terms are like Shredded Wheat - two are wonderful but three might just be too many." I'm coeliac, so I can't really relate to the analogy. So is three Shredded Wheat too many? Our friends at BuzzFeed have been testing the PM's assertion.

BBCCopyright: BBC

George Osborne is currently facing questions from the Treasury Select Committee. Following Ed Balls' claim earlier that the Tories will definitely put up VAT if re-elected, the chancellor tells the MPs his plans "don't involve a VAT rise" and the Conservatives "don't need a VAT rise" to pay for their policies.

David Cameron's interview with the BBC's deputy political editor, James Lansdale, generated one of the biggest political stories of the year: the prime minister saying he won't stand for a third term in Downing Street. Over on the Guardian website, Holly Baxter takes a look at a few other things she found interesting, including the fact that the PM has a "self-referential chopping board".

tweets: Following Labour's Great Recession Britain is getting stronger. More jobs, deficit is down, the economy is growing & wages are going further

Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images

This morning's cabinet meeting - the last before the election - was an opportunity for the Lib Dems on the team to unite for a quick photo outside Number 10.

BBCCopyright: BBC

David Cameron's third-term vow is "bizarre", Michael Portillo says. "When you play chess you've got to consider what the next two moves are, and I don't think he did." The ex-Tory Cabinet minister tells BBC Radio 5 Live if any other Conservative in government had taken up the news agenda like this the leader would have been rather miffed. But he has some sympathy for the prime minister. "You're damned if you do, damned if you don't. However since that is clear, there's no point setting off on this wild goose chase in the middle of an election campaign."

The government's committed £860m of cash to the National Cyber Security programme, Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude tells the Commons. It's all part of a bid to "ensure Britain remains one of the safest places in the world to do business online". But shadow Chi Onwurah is only half-impressed. She says the government is only helping big businesses, "leaving consumers to fend for themselves".

TwitterCopyright: Twitter

"You're not answering the question", "rubbish" and "answer the question" - these were some of the heckles faced by David Cameron at the AgeUK conference earlier. "Out of all the PM Directs, schools and factory visits," Telegraph correspondent Matthew Holehouse tweets, "never seen Cam jeered, booed, heckled like at Age UK". After taking questions from the media, Mr Cameron thanked the delegates for their "lively questions and the lively interactions". But Labour has already commented on Cameron's reception. Shadow health minister Jamie Reed says: "David Cameron cannot shake off his betrayal of the NHS and older people's care services."

BBCCopyright: BBC

Here's a few of the contributions from backbench MPs on the Falkland Islands:

• Labour's Barry Sheerman says he hopes the "whiff of gunpowder and sabre rattling we heard this morning" doesn't preclude taking part in discussion at the "senior diplomatic level".
• Conservative Alec Shelbrooke says the actions of Argentina and Russia show "that we must maintain Trident as a deterrent."
• Conservative defence expert Dr Julian Lewis asks for a commitment that 2% of GDP will be spent on defence throughout the lifetime of the next parliament. Russia and Argentina react to the "signal we send to them", he argues.

The Commons is now moving on to another statement - this one on cybersecurity from Francis Maude.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Conservative MP Brian Binley, who is standing down at the next election, says he was "a little surprised" by David Cameron's comments. It wasn't a "scripted, planned announcement as such" in his view. "The prime minister has a perfect right, being a young man with a young family - I can understand why 20 years in politics would be long enough for anybody." Mr Binley says the story "could create a bit of a diversion" over the coming weeks. He wonders whether Mr Cameron is right to pick out Theresa May, George Osborne and Boris Johnson as his potential successors. "It's made it perhaps slightly more difficult for the three people named - and who knows whether those three people are going to be in the frame in three-and-a-half years' time."

Mike Smithson of politicalbetting.com says people gambling on who becomes the next Conservative leader will get a lot of pleasure from picking out who's going to win the leadership battle started by David Cameron's comments. "Once you've opened Pandora's Box and suggest there's a possibility of a contest in the not-too-distant future, people start thinking about it," he says. Boris Johnson is the favourite on 5/2 with Theresa May on 9/2. Then come George Osborne, Philip Hammond and Sajid Javid - even though the latter two weren't mentioned by the PM. "The bookies don't take their lead totally from the prime minister on these matters," Mr Smithson notes.

tweets: Today's plane crash in the Alps is heartbreaking news. The UK will do everything it can to support the French emergency services.

Northern Ireland Secretary Theresa Villiers tells The World At One she's already apologised for the "hurt caused to victims" by the On the Runs letters condemned by MPs today. It was never an amnesty scheme, she says. The Northern Ireland committee has complained of question-marks over the legality of the government's actions. "I provided clarity in September when I announced to the Commons the scheme was at an end," she says.

tweets: Ukip announcement gone off rails. Local party treasurer says new candidate chosen without consultation. Press officer asks him to keep quiet

Some news just in from Folkestone and Hythe, where ex-UKIP candidate Janice Atkinson was expelled from the party earlier. Her replacement has been confirmed as Labour's former National Executive Committee chair Harriet Yeo.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Shadow defence secretary Vernon Coaker voices his support to the government over defending the Falklands: "The government is right in its vow to remain vigilant in the protection of Falkland Islanders at all times," he says. But he suggests defence of the islands should be kept permanently under review, especially given "the role of Russia in the region".

Here's some details of the ComRes polling of 56 Green councillors discussed on the Daily Politics just now. The top findings are:

• No Green councillors would join a Conservative-led coalition in the event of a hung parliament
• All Green Party councillors believe the top level of income tax should be over 45%
• 96% of Green councillors do not want Trident renewed

Around 1,200 military and civilian personnel will continue to defend the Falklands, Michael Fallon tells MPs.

• Two Chinooks are to be deployed to the Falklands, he says, in order to provide more tactical flexibility to the UK's defensive forces there.
• The Royal Navy will continue to maintain a patrol vessel in the archipelago
• Mr Fallon announces £180m of infrastructure spending in the Falklands over the next ten years

BBCCopyright: BBC

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon is on his feet making his statement about the Falkland Islands. "We will always defend the right of the Falkland Islanders to determine their own political future," he tells MPs. The review he's updating the Commons about today was triggered in December 2013. Not that he can actually say what it found, of course, because of "operational sensitivities". But Mr Fallon can say the development of an oil and gas industry has been a factor.

In the Commons farming minister George Eustice has been taking questions about the Rural Payments Agency, which has struggled to implement its digital service for farmers. Maria Eagle tells MPs that the government has been "insisting that everything will work" as recently as 12 March, only to admit today that they are behind. Responding to Ms Eagle, George Eustice says while he cannot guarantee the payments - made up of funding under the EU's Common Agricultural Policy - will be made in the "payment window" he is "confident we will have a system in place to deal with them".

BBCCopyright: BBC

Ahead of Defence Secretary Michael Fallon's Falklands statement, which is coming up shortly, the Daily Politics samples the views of the Greens' Andrew Cooper and UKIP's Peter Reeve on the role of the military. "The bigger issue in defence is what the Greens would do to decimate our Army, which is even worse than the terrible things that Labour and the Conservatives are proposing," Mr Reeve says. Mr Cooper says the Army should be more about peacekeeping and humanitarian aid. "These are the sorts of things that will give our country more security, not less," he insists. "We need to be using our armed forces intelligently."

BBCCopyright: BBC

Jeffrey Donaldson of the Democratic Unionist Party - currently the fourth largest party in the Commons - has been explaining the DUP's approach in the event of a hung parliament. "What we will seek to do is support whoever is going to deliver the strongest government for the United Kingdom… we're not in the business of bringing about instability, we've had enough of that." He says there's an opportunity to "maximise Northern Ireland's influence", though - suggesting there may be strings attached to his party's support.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Brian May, the Queen guitarist and campaigner, is explaining why he's offering funding to candidates from more than one party. His Common Decency campaign is encouraging "colour-blind politics" that focuses more on the individual than the political party they're backing. "I would rather have my relationship with good people in all the parties," he says. "We know some great people and we're endorsing MPs in all the big parties and some of the minor parties as well."

tweets: #Cameron thought he was in safe territory at Age UK event - but pensioners in audience heckled and jeered him. Food for thought, Dave...

Here's a bit more about what the prime minister had to say about his third-term announcement: "I'm going to fight with everything I've got to win that election because we've got a long term economic plan that's working, we're putting the country back to work, we've turned the economy around, we're providing the dignity and security that elderly people deserve in old age and that's the fight I'm going to have. But I think giving a straight answer to a straight question about the future is actually a sensible thing to do. And I think most people will understand that rather than want to play an endless game of political processes five years hence."

BBCCopyright: BBC

Brian May launched his "common decency" campaign this morning and is on the Daily Politics explaining his views. Five years ago, he says, he was fed up by the fact that in many "safe seats" there aren't really meaningful contests. But he's changed his mind now and deploys a pie chart to explain his point: that if everyone who didn't vote backed the second- or third-placed candidate, they'd win outright. "I'm politically colour blind," he says.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Chris Leslie, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, is on the Daily Politics talking about VAT after Labour pledged not to increase the tax in the next parliament. "It's important, from our instincts, that Labour governments haven't raised the main rate of VAT. But every single Conservative government for the past 40 years has," he says. He's asked what increases would take place in income tax or national insurance, and replies by saying income tax would only be increased for the higher-rate taxpayers. Can he rule out raising national insurance? "We've got no need to."

BBCCopyright: BBC

David Cameron hits back at claims he blundered by saying he would not serve a third term if retains power in May. "What I did in my kitchen was give a very straight answer to a very straight question. And I think people will understand that a full second term, a full five years, is a very reasonable, sensible thing to say."

BBCCopyright: BBC

David Cameron named three potential successors in his BBC interview: Theresa May, Boris Johnson and George Osborne. We heard from the London mayor earlier, and now the chancellor has answered questions about the PM's comments too. Mr Osborne would only say his Conservative colleague "leads a really strong team" on his own possible future candidacy. And on the third-term announcement itself? "I think it's really refreshing we have a prime minister who gives a direct answer to a direct question," he says. We'll be hearing more from the chancellor later when he takes questions from MPs on the Budget.

Groans all round at the Age UK meeting, as David Cameron says he wants to take some questions from the media. "Only two," says Mr Cameron, "they have been sitting quietly at the back."

BBCCopyright: BBC

There's very much an end-of-term feel to today's Commons questions. Nick Clegg's enemies are being nice to him. "For the last five years I've tried to irritate the deputy prime minister by asking questions exposing Liberal Democrat failures," Tory backbencher Peter Bone says. He praises Nick Clegg's "good grace and good humour" in answering them and adds: "I think history will look at the deputy prime minister in being very courageous in bringing his party into government at a time of crisis."

SkyCopyright: Sky

I would like to see a minister at cabinet level who represents the interests of older people, says a 91-year-old questioner. The prime minister is having a hard time getting a word in to reply. "We as a group need the same recognition as you give to children," the audience member says. When he does reply, David Cameron says he wants "every single one of my ministers to care" about older people. He says that if pensioners feel they haven't got what they need, the person to blame is him, not any of his ministers.

Stephen Mosley, the Conservative MP, gives the coalition nine out of 10 for its performance over this government's lifetime. Invited to give his own assessment, Nick Clegg says: "I will leave the markings and scores to other people." But he does note that the government survived - in spite of suggestions from many it would not make it through the full five years.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Harriet Harman comes back at Nick Clegg by summing up the deputy prime minister's time in power with three policies: the bedroom tax, tuition fees and tax cuts for millionaires. "The reality is the only thing that people in this country will remember him for is giving a whole new meaning to the phrase, 'Yes prime minister'," she says. Mr Clegg offers a serious response when asked about his claim that he is even more anti-establishment now than he was five years ago. "I think the era of single party government in this country is over," he says. "I think the fact that this coalition government has in very difficult circumstances presided over what is now the fastest growing economy in the developed world… after the absolute economic mess that she bequeathed to us, is quite an achievement."

BBCCopyright: BBC

Harriet Harman uses her last questions of this parliament to condemn Nick Clegg's record in government. She opens by quoting the Liberal Democrat leader saying in an interview last week that "the way that politics works is bust and Westminster is a joke". Was he referring to himself? Mr Clegg is deeply sarcastic in reply. "Er, I wonder what answer I should give to that?" he says. "No, of course not."

tweets: That Cameron not-doing-a-3rd-term-thing is classic eg of something that at Westminster sounds mad but in normal life sounds quite...normal.

SkyCopyright: Sky

"I know some of you will have seen electoral carnival many times around. But this election really really matters," the prime minister says.

BBCCopyright: BBC

On Tuesday's Daily Politics, Jo Coburn is joined Danny Kruger, former speechwriter to David Cameron, to discuss the prime minister's revelation that he will not serve a third term if his party stays in government. She will also talk political apathy with Queen guitarist Brian May, who now heads the Common Decency Campaign, and Alex Robertson, from the Electoral Commission. The Democratic Unionist Party is the fourth largest party in the current Parliament, and could be a kingmaker after 7 May - and the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson will also be on Tuesday's programme. And there will be the results of a survey about what UKIP and Green Party councillors really think. Desktop viewers can watch the programme live from 12:00 GMT on the Live Coverage tab above.

David Cameron is listing his commitments to pensioners - changing the rules around annuities, protecting the NHS and retaining universal benefits like free bus passes. We are also doubling the research budget for dementia, he says, adding: "I see this as a personal priority."

"I don't want my political epitaph to read that I just cleared the up the mess... I want a different kind of Britain," he goes on.

BBCCopyright: BBC

On The Runs - republicans suspected of involvement in terrorist crimes but who had never been charged - were sent to over 180 Irish Republicans. But they shouldn't have existed at all, the Northern Ireland affairs committee of MPs has concluded this morning. Its chairman Laurence Robertson says the scheme had caused "further hurt to people who have suffered far too much already". More here.

tweets: I have just finished 175th + final cabinet of this coalition @David_Cameron tells @ageuk. So confident no coalition negotiations

SkyCopyright: Sky

Cheers for David Cameron as he arrives on stage at the AgeUK conference. He tells the audience he's just come from the last cabinet meeting before the election.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Speaking after cabinet earlier, Nick Clegg was asked for his response to the news that no survivors are likely in the Alps plane crash. The deputy prime minister said: "My heart goes out to the family and friends of those people who appear to have lost their lives in this devastating air crash in the Alps. It really must be the most traumatic time for all of them. I know all of our thoughts are with them right now."

Nick Clegg is now answering questions in the Commons. Labour frontbencher Stephen Twigg invites him to condemn the "Conservative government" for being "no friend of the north". Mr Clegg replies that the coalition had to work to fix Labour's mess. "The problem is that because of mismanagement on their watch, the economy blew up," he says.

tweets: With his retirement looming, David Cameron is attending a conference held by Age UK

Michael DeaconCopyright: Michael Deacon

tweets: No-one tasted the Co-ale-ition beer at Cabinet this morning, apparently...

PACopyright: PA

Speaking after cabinet, Nick Clegg was asked the inevitable question about whether he'd rule out a third term himself. "I'd very happily settle for two terms as prime minister, speaking personally. And for whatever David Cameron said, that's entirely up to him, of course, to say. I'm not going to get into running commentary on other people's comments about their own future."

It's nearly time for the last Tuesday of the 2014/15 Parliament to get underway. Here's a run-down of what we've got to look forward to:

• Nick Clegg faces his final deputy prime minister's questions before the election
• There'll be an urgent question on the Rural Payments Agency
• Defence Secretary Michael Fallon updates MPs on reinforcements to the Falkland Islands
• Cabinet Office Minister Francis Maude gives a statement on cybersecurity
• Then the Commons is spending much of the afternoon finishing off legislation like the Recall of MPs Bill and the Small Business, Enterprise and Employment Bill
• While over on the committee corridor Chancellor George Osborne will face the Treasury select committee for a grilling on the 2015 Budget

tweets: According to @EricPickles this ale handed out to mark last Cabinet of Coalition. Last day of being on friendly terms?

Sophy RidgeCopyright: Sophy Ridge

tweets: Cameron gave Cabinet a beer called Co-ale-ition. Combines oak (Conservatives) and "Zesty lemons" LibDems. Clegg provided Yorkshire crisps

BBCCopyright: BBC

Ed Balls isn't keen on the Conservatives getting political capital out of today's zero inflation figure. "It shows you how out of touch David Cameron and George Osborne are now and how desperate to try and tell people they're working people that they're trying to claim the fall in the world oil price is somehow the result of what's happened here… it's obviously nonsense." Wages are stagnant and bills are going up faster than people's earnings, the shadow chancellor says.

tweets: Tory MP (and potential leadership challenger) just described to me Cameron's third term gaffe in these terms: 'Casual arrogance'

Here's some more of your comments on David Cameron's third term announcement - a little more critical of the PM over the last hour.

Government ministers can deny it all campaign long if they wish, but Cameron's revelation has dealt a mortal blow to his leadership. Lose the election - he has to go. Win the election but fail to renegotiate with the EU - he has to go. Renegotiate, but lose a referendum - he has to go. Even in the unlikely event he manages all 3 - he's going anyway!

Graeme McDonald

I know why David Cameron made his 'third term' comment. He's managed to keep all the headlines and news feeds away from discussing the damning revelations from last night's Channel 4 Dispatches program.

David Sutherland

Excellent PR stunt from David Cameron. Just before election put the idea in the electorate's mind that he's already won it. Genius.

Tom Jolly

tweets: Leading Lib Dem expert Dave Cutts: prob win 25-30 seats, over 30 good, 5-6% of vote, local work of Kennedy era gone, lots of 4th/5th places

tweets: Not picking holes in Labour's new poster... but the chain is broken on the left side. Suggests VAT will fall. No?

tweets: Excellent announcement by @edballsmp on no VAT increase under Labour. The Tory VAT hike in 2010 was a hammer blow to our High Streets.

A short time ago Ed Balls touched on the prime minister's future. "In his spectacularly self-indulgent, presumptuous and arrogant announcement, David Cameron is ruling out a third term before he has even won a second term. But he won't rule out raising VAT," he said. "We may not now know who the Tory leader would be at the next election, but one thing we do know for sure - the Tories will ‎raise VAT if they win this one."

"As an economist I've never seen anyone boast that zero inflation is a sign of economic success," Ed Balls says scathingly. That is, of course what both the Conservatives and Lib Dems have done this morning. More on the inflation figures.

LabourCopyright: Labour

This is Labour's latest election poster. It forms the backdrop - literally - for Ed Balls' speech.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Ed Balls is asked whether he'll raise another tax, rather than VAT, if Labour get into power. He says that's what the Tories will say, but all the promises he's made are funded: "Labour's sums add up."

"They even tried to put VAT on pasties and caravans" says the shadow chancellor. That draws an audible rumble from the assembled audience. "VAT has always been the Tory tax of choice."

Ed Balls outlines some of Labour's plans - abolishing what he calls the bedroom tax, increasing free early years provision from 15 to 25 hours a week, introducing a mansion tax - all of these, he insists, are "fully costed". He then moves on to repeat the message of his last big speech - that the only way the Conservatives can meet their "extreme" cuts targets is by raising VAT and slashing the NHS. "Every Tory prime minister has raised VAT," says Ed Balls.

No Labour government has ever raised the main rate of VAT, the shadow chancellor says. And he adds: "The next Labour government will not raise VAT. We will not extend it to food, children's clothes or public transport, ether." He adds: "I would resign rather than break that promise."

tweets: John Humphrys summed it up on #today: how on earth can Cameron serve a full-term AND have his successor installed for the 2020 election?

BBCCopyright: BBC

Ed Balls now up and running with his speech in Birmingham on VAT. Watch live by clicking above. He says VAT hits everyone, for many pensioners it's the biggest tax they pay.

Asked whether VAT on women's sanitary products should be abolished, she replies: "This is simply a tax on being female and is utterly unacceptable. There should no VAT, it's absolutely ridiculous."

Ms Bennett concludes the interview by saying that the Green Party manifesto will be out in "early April", the exact date hasn't been decided yet.

PACopyright: PA

Natalie Bennett is keen to draw distinctions between the Green Party's "long term vision for Britain" and their manifesto for this election. In the long run, they want to spend far, far less on defence and boost aid to 1% of GDP - she says improving the lives of people around the world would make the UK more secure than buying more nuclear weapons.

How can you afford to be so completely against austerity, the Green leader is asked. Multinational companies and rich individuals aren't paying their way, she replies, so the Greens would raise £20bn from a Robin Hood tax, for example. "We're not afraid to say they have to pay more." UKIP says concerns over low wages and crowded schools are down to immigration, argues Ms Bennett, when in fact they are down to poor planning and a failure to spend government resources in the right way.

"I'm a human being, we have failings, I'm not a spin machine," says Natalie Bennett when she's asked about That Interview on LBC a few weeks ago. She says it's now time to move on.

Green Party leader Natalie Bennett is now on Radio 4's Woman's Hour. Listen to it on a desktop by clicking the live tab above. She starts by announcing that the Greens currently have more than 57,000 members, more than UKIP and the Lib Dems.

tweets: To me, "I don't want to do a 3rd term" sounds like "I'm already on #LinkedIn & looking for something better". Not a great #election2015 msg!

Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images

We'll be hearing more from Defence Secretary Michael Fallon in the Commons a bit later on UK efforts to "beef up" the defence of the Falklands, as he put it. But in the meantime, our colleague has pulled together what we know so far. Read it here.

Here's a selection of the comments we've been receiving on David Cameron's third term announcement - they're all very supportive of the prime minister...

To me this was a sensible remark, provided it was on the basis he had won a second term in the first place! It provides clarity.

Richard Hall

There is no doubt that both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair overstayed their time in office. Their earlier performances in the first two terms of their respective offices in power far exceeded poor performances from them both in a final term of office - many complex problems were caused by them hanging on and caused considerable difficulties for their cabinet members and successors!

Gerry Dingley

No sensible person, or politician, should want to serve more than 10 years in office. So my vote goes to Cameron on this for taking an entirely pragmatic approach.

David Trevers

I don't see why the Lib Dem and Labour counterparts have anything against the Prime Minister making an honest, hypothetical and decent statement. He is simply stating he isn't egotistical... his goal is to fix the economy - hopefully he will. Thanks Prime Minister!

John McDonald

Send us your comments to politics@bbc.co.uk and we'll put up a selection of them throughout the day.

Boris Johnson wraps up his hour answering listeners' questions on LBC by elaborating on his opposition to a third runway at Heathrow. "If you continue with the expansion of Heathrow you will see environmental devastation across London," he says. There would be 320,000 people affected by serious noise pollution and west London would be "choked with traffic".

tweets: Inflation is running at 0% - the lowest on record. It's good news for family budgets and a sign our long term plan is working.

PACopyright: PA

Here's what Danny Alexander, the Liberal Democrat Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has to say about today's inflation figures falling to zero: "Today's zero inflation is the right sort of price freeze, with low oil prices feeding through to prices. Coming alongside good growth and record numbers of jobs, Liberal Democrats in government are delivering a stronger economy and a fairer society. It's yet another month that sees earnings pulling ahead of prices, which will be a great help to millions of families."

BBCCopyright: BBC

Boris Johnson delivers a potted history of Winston Churchill's views on defence spending, pointing out that while he was a "great re-militariser" in the 1930s, he had argued for defence cuts in the first decade of the 20th Century. It's in response to a listener who's disappointed that the Conservatives aren't backing the armed forces. "The Conservative Party is utterly committed to a strong defence, to standing up to Russian revanchism in eastern Europe," he says. Revanchism - for those of you, like us, who are not on Boris's verbal level - apparently means a policy of seeking to retaliate. to reverse territorial losses incurred by a country.

tweets: Boris Johnson says he is "personally committed" to 2% defence spending target: "That's right, it's right for this country" @LBC

LBCCopyright: LBC

The London Mayor paints a vivid picture of his nocturnal activities in his office. Sitting there late at night "meditating great thoughts for London", Boris Johnson says, he often gets interrupted by the energy-saving system which automatically switches the lights off if no motion is detected. "I have to jump up and down and wave my arms to bring them back on," he says.

tweets: The Lobby has gone absolutely berserk over Cameron's comments and I can't figure out why. It seems at entirely sensible thing to say.

Boris Johnson is pressed on how he felt about being named as one of three possible leadership contenders. "Of all the subjects in the world this is the one that sends me into the deepest coma of tedium," he says, before wriggling uncomfortably for several minutes. Here are some of the comments he had to say:

• "I felt very pleased that the prime minister is going to go on for five years."
• "There are many candidates out there."
• "To be perfectly honest I don't think the prime minister has actually said anything new. I don't want to sound dementedly conceited about it, but I think he has said stuff like this before."
• "This is a hypothetical question - there is no vacancy, nor will there be a vacancy for five years which is an incredibly long time. We're talking about 2020."
• Will he go for it? "I can't possibly answer that because it is a long way off."

tweets: Boris Johnson refusing to say not only whether he'll be the next Tory leader but how many Shredded Wheat he can eat #askboris

tweets: UK CPI inflation falls to a new record low of 0%. Employers will be quoting this figure back at you when you mention a pay rise

The high stakes of this year's general election will result in turmoil among the party leaderships, Rachel Sylvester writes in the Times. She imagines a "bloodbath" and offers readers the chance to play "political Cluedo" by working out what "Westminster deaths" might be in the offing. Nigel Farage as Professor Plum, Nick Clegg as Colonel Mustard - and then there's the Labour leader. "Ed Miliband is an unlikely Miss Scarlett..."

Boris Johnson is answering a question about Grant Shapps' second job while working as an MP. The Conservative Party chairman told "porky pies", a listener suggests, but the London mayor disagrees. "If there was an overlap it wasn't very long. People are bashing this guy because he was so enterprising," he says. But what about the fact that Mr Shapps said he hadn't had a second job at all. Mr Johnson says he's sure Mr Shapps "forgot" rather than sought to deliberately mislead.

tweets: By insisting he won't serve a 3rd term Cameron's making sure he serves a second without challenge. Clever #election2015

tweets: @BBCJLandale Cameron scoop shows it's much more effective in political interviews to treat leaders as human beings facing complex dilemmas.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Boris Johnson is asked about "equality before the law" and allegations of sexual impropriety. Why is it that politicians facing allegations of sexual impropriety aren't identified when media and celebrity figures are? Mr Johnson isn't convinced by that claim. He says the police need to get people coming forward and that's why they put names out there - but that it doesn't always work out. "It may sometimes turn out the allegations are completely unfounded, in which case people go through an awful lot of misery for no purpose."

David Cameron - huge over reaction by the media hype - an honest answer and what a sensible point to make. We all have our sell-by dates - the important point is never overstay your time. Well done Prime Minister.

David Wilkinson

Send us your comments to politics@bbc.co.uk and we'll put up a selection of them throughout the day.

tweets: George Osborne now 'too busy' to do an interview this morning on inflation. Now why would that be??

tweets: Thanks again 4 kind comments. To clear up: it was lettuce, not carrot; I did wash my hands & he meant big Shredded Wheat - think Botham

"To say he's arrogant or presumptuous seems to me to be totally bizarre. Actually I think he's being rather humble, rather straightforward and telling it like it is," Mr Johnson continues.

lbcCopyright: lbc

London Mayor Boris Johnson is currently doing his weekly phone-in on LBC radio. Unsurprisingly, the first question - from Andy in Dartford - is, what would you do differently as PM? He tries to dodge it, saying: "My job is mayor of London and I've got to get on with making changes in London." After a bit of haranguing from presenter Nick Ferrari, Boris declares the PM's announcement as "entirely banal and obvious".

The BBC's deputy political editor James Landale says he wasn't expecting David Cameron to give such a clear answer to his question about a third term. He tells Today that "it was not something planned" - this was not a pre-prepared message the PM wanted to get out, as some have suggested online. "I think he had in his head this idea he wanted to get out there that he would serve a full five-year term," he says. Countering Labour's idea that an EU referendum and then leadership election could lead to "chaos" might have been what Mr Cameron was driving at, but he went a little too far. "You sometimes catch the thoughts and the thinking that's at the front of their head, purely by a piece of luck and spontaneity." That is not great news for the PM or the party he leads. "The trouble is once you get into a debate and statement saying you'll serve the full five years, then you have to say what happens then, and that's where you get into trouble."

tweets: Can't help thinking that by naming Osborne, May & Johnson as potential successors, Cameron has almost ensured they won't be...

tweets: This is either a political mistake of epic proportions or Cameron sees some advantage that eludes everyone else.

PACopyright: PA

Ed Balls' pledge not to raise VAT in the next parliament has left the Conservatives asking how Labour would tackle the deficit - particularly given the party's support for £30bn of cuts. "Labour have let the cat out of the bag," a spokesman says. "Ed Balls is confirming his real plan - big hikes in the jobs tax or tax on hard work." In other words, the Tories think Labour would raise national insurance or income tax.

tweets: Hats off to Michael Fallon who finally crafts proper No 10 response after PM slip up with @BBCJLandale: arrogant of PM to say go on + on

No-one had the faintest idea Mr Cameron was going to say what he did.

Conservative cabinet ministers know this has the potential to be one humungous distraction. Up to now the Conservative campaign has been pretty disciplined, pretty focused on the economy. Now, inevitably, they face endless questions about Mr Cameron's intentions.

The real difficulty is this: it changes the atmosphere at Westminster. Once you start sketching out your political shelf-life, then people begin to speculate about life after you have gone.

BBCCopyright: BBC

A rather breathless Boris Johnson, back from his morning exercise, had this to say earlier about David Cameron's comments: "All he's saying is obvious and common sense. He doesn't want to go on and on and on like Mrs Thatcher. He's got five more years to complete the work of getting Britain's economic recovery on track and there's still a lot to do." But does that mean that Mr Cameron will stay on for the full five years? "Of course he's going to."

Kevin Maguire offers his take on the biggest political story of the last 12 hours: "The Tory leader's incredible blunder fired the starting gun for a Conservative bun fight to replace him." The Mirror's associate editor says the result is "permanent instability" should David Cameron win the 2015 election, he says. "One vote, two prime ministers."

BBCCopyright: BBC

Here's a sentence you probably weren't expecting to read this morning: decades of dancing have helped Vince Cable reach "international supreme" level, his dance teacher says. This is how Dr Cable spends his Friday afternoons, it turns out. He has passed every exam possible for an amateur dancer. It is all rather dizzying stuff, but there's some politics in Buzzfeed's article about the business secretary too. He is rather critical of Tim Farron's credentials as a future successor to Nick Clegg. "I suspect he would not be seen as a very credible leader," he says. Mr Clegg, of course, will be in the Commons later for what could be his last ever deputy prime minister's questions.

tweets: So: does Cameron's standing-down announcement look as bad for the Tories as it did yesterday evening? No. It looks even worse.

Some Tory backbenchers are deeply concerned about the possibility Britain's defence spending could slip below the 2% of gross national income target stipulated by Nato. "We have long-term commitments to our defence," Michael Fallon tells Today. He says the "10-year commitment plan" for future spending, David Cameron's pledge that the size of the regular Army will not be cut and the commitment to modernising the nuclear deterrent should all be of reassurance. But the final decision on spending for the bulk of the next parliament won't be taken until next autumn's three-year spending review, Mr Fallon accepts.

tweets: Both Michael Gove and Michael Fallon have said a Tory leadership race could run throughout 2020 while Cameron remains PM. Very American.

tweets: Now poor Mr Fallon is on to moving around imaginary divisions. Time to invest in defence. #today

BBCCopyright: BBC

Asked about the Falkland Islands threat, Defence Secretary Michael Fallon says "any future and possible threats" to the islands have to be weighed up. He won't give away many details ahead of his Commons statement, but says: "The threat remains, it's a very live threat, we have to respond to it and I am responding to it this afternoon."

tweets: So you're a #ShreddedWheat man @David_Cameron?! What's your preference - hot or cold milk?

Michael Fallon says 2020 is too far off to predict what's going to happen. "10 years as prime minister is probably enough for everybody," he says. His uncertainty about the future means he doesn't directly address questions about whether the PM would have to resign before the 2020 general election once his replacement is chosen.

tweets: "Let's stick with one election at a time." Michael Fallon gives the answer Cameron should have gone for.

APCopyright: AP

What about the possibility of a leadership election at the end of the next parliament? Michael Fallon says only people in Westminster care about that sort of thing. "Let's deal with one election at a time," he says.

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon is on the Today programme to give his take on David Cameron's announcement that he won't stand for a third term in 2020. "It was a fairly obvious answer. He's not going to go on and on," he says, saying that every politician has a "shelf-life".

tweets: Odds are that Cameron would not make two full terms either way. And that is even without an EU referendum in 2017...

tweets: Amid the fuss around Cameron it is worth noting that only two PMs in the last century (Thatcher and Blair) actually served two full terms.

tweets: Things must be bad, they're wheeling out Michael Fallon! The safest pair of hands they have for Today interrogation

Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images

The law about minimum wage and care workers is very clear, minister Norman Lamb says. Employers who aren't scheduling in travel time are underpaying their staff and that's illegal. And it's not just about fairness, Mr Lamb adds: exploited workers won't provide good care.

tweets: #ImRulingMyselfOut of competing for Team GB in the 100m. It was a bit more realistic than Cameron's third team

Care providers are thought to be among the biggest groups who face the problem of not being paid the minimum wage. And HMRC is taking action: it's investigating six of the country's biggest social care providers for elderly and disabled adults. The problem is that employers don't pay staff for the time spent travelling between visits to their clients' homes. The Today programme is reporting on the issue now - desktop readers can listen in above.

BBCCopyright: BBC

David Cameron's brush with James Landale wasn't all about third terms. The Guardian's Esther Addley has been sizing up the pair's "spontaneous village promenade" and picks out some revealing details that haven't been widely picked up. The Camerons aren't so keen on London, for example. "I'm a country boy at heart," the prime minister says. His children say No 10 is just their "pretend home".

tweets: 3rd term hubris really makes Cameron look like a man who asked what his country could do for him and not what he could do for his country...

tweets: Labour criticising PM for talking about third term before getting second... Although Miliband did outline a "two term" plan at Conference

BBCCopyright: BBC

A bit more on today's Falklands announcement, which the papers have been previewing extensively this morning. Defence Secretary Michael Fallon is expected to tell Parliament that Britain will reinforce its military garrison on the archipelago. It's in response to the increased threat posed by Argentina, backed by Russian-supplied strike aircraft. A Whitehall source told the Sun: "The defence secretary's decision reflects operational judgements and the increased nature of the threat. We want the people of the Falklands to know they are uppermost in our thinking."

tweets: I'm upgrading 'interviews in kitchens' from 'pointless' to 'potentially lethal' in my list of party leader PR exercises

tweets: Cameron sparks bout of leadership speculation? I've been reading leadership speculation stories every week for the past 3 years.

tweets: Labour VAT promise a big policy-political statement. 2010 attacks that Cons would raise VAT blunted when Lab didn't rule it out

Labour and the Liberal Democrats were quick to make clear last night that they would do their best to make David Cameron's leadership announcement an issue in the campaign - because they say ruling out a third term before having won a second says something about the man's character. It's "incredibly presumptuous", a Lib Dem spokesperson says, while Douglas Alexander - Labour's general election strategy chair - calls the PM's comments "typically arrogant". Mr Alexander adds: "In the UK it is for the British people and not the prime minister to decide who stays in power."

tweets: Next Tory leader, current betting: Boris 7/4, Theresa May 4/1, George Osborne 7/1, Sajid Javid 10/1, Hammond 12/1

BBCCopyright: BBC

Michael Fallon says the UK is going to "beef up" its defence of the Falkland Islands. There'll be a statement in the Commons later on that subject.

Lady Morgan says David Cameron's third-term announcement is "quite serious" because the PM has "turned his mind to leaving". It reveals quite a lot about the man, Tony Blair's ex-adviser suggests. Sean Worth, a former coalition special adviser in Downing Street, tells Today that the practicalities of preparing for a 2020 election suggest that Mr Cameron would have to resign as PM around a year beforehand.

"He gave a straight and sensible answer to the question he was asked," Defence Secretary Michael Fallon says of David Cameron's announcement. He insists the PM was clear he would serve a "full term" if elected in May.

Downing Street will be "slightly annoyed" by David Cameron's "distraction" getting on to the front pages, the PM's former special adviser Sean Worth says. "He probably should have said, 'It's not something I'm thinking about right now, I'm focusing on the election'," he tells Today. He's not so sure about the suggestion from Tony Blair's former senior adviser Sally Morgan that this will become a big theme of the campaign, though. Lady Morgan replies: "You're going to end up with a leadership election running right through the next term."

Sean Worth, former special adviser to David Cameron, tells Today that David Cameron's third-term announcement was surprising. "It did look to be a pretty honest, unplanned comment by a politician who's self-aware enough to know that people don't like you hanging around too long," he says. Lady Sally Morgan, former senior adviser to Tony Blair, says she was "staggered" because the message damages the Conservative election campaign.

The calculation the PM has made is, presumably, that he gave a straight answer to a straight question, and he thinks the voters will admire his honesty. He might also think that being clear with the public like this is the right thing to do, in and of itself.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Brian May wants MPs to break free - of the oppressive system of party politics, that is. The former Queen guitarist is busy launching his own campaign today: a bid to free up MPs from the party whips system. The badger cull activist is going to provide some cash to candidates he thinks are willing to act "decently, transparently and accountably" once elected - and, as the Telegraph has noted, is prepared to consider including UKIP candidates. "I wouldn't be averse to backing a UKIP guy whom we regard as a pillar of decency," he told the Telegraph.

PACopyright: PA

UKIP has one fewer MEPs this morning after it expelled Janice Atkinson and her chief of staff Christine Hewitt for "bringing the party into disrepute". Ms Atkinson says she'll be appealing the decision, which also means she is no longer the party's candidate for Michael Howard's old Westminster seat of Folkestone and Hythe. It follows the emergence of a recording in which Ms Hewitt appears to ask for an invoice for a much higher sum than the bill she had originally received. More details, including what Ms Atkinson has to say about the affair, in our story.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Mark Wallace, executive editor of Conservative Home, says the one surprising thing about David Cameron's announcement is where it fits into the wider campaign strategy. Lynton Crosby, the PM's chief election strategist, is "all about discipline, contrasting Labour chaos with Tory competence", Mr Wallace says, so it's a bit surprising to see the PM stray so far off message.

BBCCopyright: BBC

Labour's big policy announcement today comes from Ed Balls, who will use a speech in Birmingham to say his party will make a "clear pledge" not to raise VAT. The tax is a big revenue-raiser for the Treasury: its coffers have benefited greatly from the increase from 17.5% to 20% contained in George Osborne's 2010 emergency Budget. Now Labour says the Conservatives will be forced to hike the tax after the election and will hope to create a big dividing line on the issue during the campaign. "We will not raise VAT because it's the tax that hits everyone," the shadow chancellor will say. "It's the tax that hits you every day. And it hits pensioners and the poorest hardest." Here's our story.

By answering my question, Mr Cameron has potentially opened a Pandora's Box.

He has invited Westminster and the country to contemplate a time when he is no longer prime minister and that is a dangerous gamble to make so close to an election.

He did not need to tip some of his potential successors but he did. And I am not sure Theresa May, George Osborne and Boris Johnson will thank him for it.

BBCCopyright: BBC

David Cameron's comments start the gun on a lengthy leadership race, many of the papers conclude. The prime minister named a trio of senior Conservatives - Home Secretary Theresa May, Chancellor George Osborne and London Mayor Boris Johnson - as potential successors in his interview with James Landale. But yesterday evening saw Tories insisting his announcement was nothing to get excited about:

• Mr Johnson said the story was just "people making a fuss about nothing"
• Conservative chief whip Michael Gove said the PM's comments were a "statement of the bleeding obvious"
• Tory backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg said Mr Cameron's approach was "quite refreshing"
• Tory MP Peter Bone rejected the idea the PM's remarks would overshadow the party's campaign messages. "Just the reverse - it stops you guys saying 'when are you going to quit' every time you interview him."

tweets: Source close to Boris tells me their ideal is for Cameron to stand down mid term so he get into no 10 without having to be opposition leader

tweets: Papers just arrived at Downing Street, the usual stack. He'll be reading those over two shredded wheat #ge2015

As you'd imagine the newspapers are dominated by David Cameron's announcement. There are two versions of the headline - one focusing one him ruling out a third term and the other focusing attention on what this means for the Tory leadership stakes. You can cast your eye over them here.

tweets: Update: Lab & Con tied - Latest YouGov / The Sun results 23rd Mar - Con 34%, Lab 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%; APP-13 Read more.

BBCCopyright: BBC

For those of you who stopped paying attention yesterday evening, there's been a bit of a development: David Cameron has said he will not run for a third term as prime minister - assuming he wins a second, of course. The Conservative leader told James Landale he was "not contemplating" standing at the 2020 general election - triggering an almighty amount of excitement overnight. Attention on Mr Cameron's comments is set to be a big, big story today - we'll be bringing you the latest reaction as Parliament continues its wind-up.

Here's a quick run-down on some of the big events of Monday:

• David Cameron said he wouldn't seek to serve a third term as prime minister if elected this time round - much more on that shortly
• UKIP launched its economic policy and committed to spending 2% of UK GDP on defence
• Theresa May outlined Conservative proposals for dealing with extremism, including banning certain speakers from social media
• Ed Miliband rubbished suggestions made by Alex Salmond that the SNP could play a role in writing a Labour Budget in the event of a hung parliament
• Under-fire Conservative candidate Afzal Amin insisted he would "robustly defend his position" despite calls for him to quit over allegations he schemed with the English Defence League to win votes

Welcome to another day with your faithful Politics Live team. It's Victoria King and Alex Stevenson here, hitting the caffeine and getting ready to bring you all the action and reaction from Westminster and the election campaign trail. There are 44 days to go until polling day and we'll be staying across everything from Today to Newsnight. Yesterday was a certainly a busy one, here you can read how it all panned out.