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  1. How to follow Newsnight

    We post occasional updates and analysis from the Newsnight team here.

    Other ways you can follow us:

    • Add "Newsnight" as a topic on the BBC News app to follow us online
  2. Could there be Labour defections?

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    Lots of talk of defections in my patch - yesterday the suggestion George Osborne thought he could bring over Blairites, this morning Tim Farron revealing he's received texts from Labour figures in anguish that Jeremy Corbyn is their new leader.

    Speaking to folk on the Tory side of things, and some Labour people in the frame, I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. But there is something going on.

    From Tories, my understanding is that the project they are currently working on is how to bring over "establishment figures on the centre left" to run institutions, inquiries, commissions, maybe even museums. I gather they wouldn't expect them to become Tories, and instead would actively want them to be loud and proud Labourites... All helps create the sense the Tories are now the big tent camped firmly on the boggy unpredictable marshland centre ground of British politics. This is in the mould of John Hutton and Alan Milburn - who took on commissions on pensions and social mobility respectively.

    But the Tories running this process tell me they "do not expect the defections of any sitting MPs". I've spoken to one of the Labour MPs always rumoured to be on the verge of crossing the floor, and when I put this judgment to them they said "I think that's probably right".

    Why? Well, firstly these Tories tell me they can see that Labour MPs need time to figure out how long Corbyn lasts. But secondly, and most importantly, they are aware that being Labour is a central part of these people's identity - Blairite or not. That they will not turn their backs on it easily. If ever. The agony of a by-election for their party, friends and family would be unthinkable for many. There is a reason they are not Tories, a philosophical choice they have made 20 / 30 years ago.

    Labour folks regard the rumours as put about by their opponents to further destabilise their already ricketty party. What I don’t rule out is that perhaps, over the next five years, a current Labour MP would decide Corbyn isn't for them, decide to stand down and then, a short while later pop up doing a job for the Tories. But that is a long way off.

    Then, what about the Lib Dems? This would be a little less of a journey for Labour folk but still I doubt it. Forgive my cynicism but I suspect Tim Farron's decision to reveal he has been approached by Labour folk is probably partially an attempt to frame the narrative ahead of his party conference which kicks off this weekend. It might have been dominated by the idea that Jeremy Corbyn makes things more difficult for the Lib Dems after choosing a left wing leader like Farron over a centrist like Norman Lamb.  

    Now, that's not to say we won't wake up in a year and learn of a defection. Or even sooner than that. But what's going on right now is, in the words of one Tory minister who has had a chat with a Labour MP about defecting, just "banter".

  3. Can the new style of PMQs last?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    A Punch and Judy show

    The first PMQs of Jeremy Corbyn's leadership was certainly different. Many people have found his more sober approach rather refreshing, particularly contrasted with the "Punch and Judy" style which usually predominates and which, as Speaker Bercow never tires of reminding us, the general public hate.

    It's worth remarking, however, that the initial exchanges between leaders are often relatively civil, with at least a cordial "I congratulate the Rt Hon Gentleman on his election as leader and so on and so on." Sometimes it ascends to even headier heights of camaraderie. Here's the first exchange between Harold Wilson and Margaret Thatcher upon her election as Tory leader in 1975.

    The Prime Minister

    With your indulgence, Mr. Speaker, may I say that I know that I speak on behalf of all my right hon. and hon. Friends when I congratulate the right hon. Member for Finchley (Mrs. Thatcher) on her outstanding success in being elected leader of her party. We wish her happiness in and enjoyment of a life which she knows she can expect to be exciting but sometimes arduous and difficult. From a study of the right hon. Lady's speeches, I have formed the impression that there may well be a deep gulf between her and me in our respective political philosophies, but, having worked closely with her three immediate predecessors, as I have, I know that political disagreement between us need not mar the work that we have to do together in Parliament, and I look forward, as I hope she will, to the meetings behind your Chair, Mr. Speaker, and to the informality and, to judge from my experience with her predecessors, the intimacy, which such meetings afford.

    Mrs. Thatcher

    I know that it is important not to speak too often from this Dispatch Box, Mr. Speaker, but may I respond to the Prime Minister's kindness? I know that we shall have hard things to say to one another across the Dispatch Boxes, but I hope that we shall be able to keep the mutual respect of keen antagonists which I think is in the best interests of parliamentary democracy.

    But it should also be noted that it is usually the case that familiarity breeds contempt between political leaders as they face each other week after week and the political pressure on at least one of them builds.

    It will be fascinating to tune into PMQs after the Conference Recess to see how long Mr Corbyn can sustain his approach and how long Mr Cameron can resist letting slip the Parliamentary Dogs of War. 

    If Mr Cameron is the first one to blink, then that will be a huge strategic victory for Mr Corbyn, showing that his demotic, calm approach has unnerved the Prime Minister. If Mr Corbyn is forced to engage in the traditional polemical style, then he will have failed in one of his central ambitions: to elevate the tone of political debate.

    If he does fail, he would hardly be the first leader to do so. Cast your minds back to December 2005. In his acceptance speech to be Tory leader, David Cameron said:

    "And we need to change, and we will change, the way we behave. I'm fed up with the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster, the name calling, backbiting, point scoring, finger pointing."

    And what about this, from new Prime Minister Gordon Brown in June 2008:

    "And this need for change cannot be met by the old politics so I will reach out beyond narrow party interest; I will build a government that uses all the talents; I will invite men and women of goodwill to contribute their energies in a new spirit of public service to make our nation what it can be."

    Or Ed Miliband's first speech as Labour leader in September 2010:

    "I stand here today ready to lead: a new generation now leading Labour. Be in no doubt.The new generation of Labour is different. Different attitudes, different ideas, different ways of doing politics."

    Most leaders start off with good intentions. The strain of the job and the need to draw political blood leads many of them to dust off their Mr Punch puppets before too long. 

  4. Why crowd sourced PMQs keep Corbyn in power

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    There are two advantages for an opposition leader to be gained at PMQs. Firstly, to communicate with the electorate, who will see what you’ve said on the bulletins. Secondly, to show your MPs that you’re up to the job.

    Traditionally, the Labour and Conservative politicians scream at each other over the despatch box, each hoping to ridicule the other. The evidence is that this doesn’t score very well with the public. But ultimately, from week to week, most political leaders derive their support from the support of their MPs. If as a leader I choose not to scream and make sarcastic jokes, my opponent has a clear field to ridicule me – and my authority is lessened with my MPs as I’m seen as having been beaten. As such, neither leader can back down. By screaming, they make sure they themselves are not ridiculed.

    So what changed today? Most obviously, Corbyn took his questions from the public. 

    This meant two things. It’s a bit harder for a politician to ridicule a question from a member of the public. But secondly, what’s almost unique about Corbyn is that he derives almost none of his authority from support in the Parliamentary Party. He doesn’t need to – and may not even be able to – please these people. His authority comes from his enormous support amongst the party’s supporters and members who voted for him overwhelmingly. This is how he may be able to keep his own party’s MPs in line.

    As such, for Corbyn, the game is rather different. By asking for questions from the public – realistically, mostly the supporters and members that voted for him – he continues to make that group of people feel valued and involved. From his perspective, this makes absolute sense. So long as the people that put him in power stay happy, his authority over his party remains.  

    For Corbyn, reaching over the heads of generally sceptical MPs to the activists and supporters that deliver leaflets and knock on doors for them isn’t just something that he no doubt believes in doing in principle: it’s arguably an absolute necessity for him to remain in power.

  5. "Out" or "in" - do MPs feel part of Corbyn's project?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Former Shadow Education Secretary Tristram Hunt
    Image caption: Former Shadow Education Secretary Tristram Hunt

    A (non-political) friend of mine recognised Tristram Hunt in his local newsagents yesterday morning. He caught Hunt's eye and questioningly held up the front page of one of the papers which were plastered with images of Corbyn. The former shadow education secretary took the paper from my friend's grasp, turned to the page with his own face on it, pointed, and simply said "out".

    An illustration, perhaps, of the mountain Corbyn has to climb with his own party. Hunt isn't the only one that is "out". Liz Kendall is out, Chuka Umunna is out. Many MPs simply flat out refused to serve in a Corbyn cabinet.

    Admittedly, Hunt is exactly the sort of MP you'd expect to be unhappy with Corbyn. 

    But it's not just the Blairites that don't feel part of the project. I spoke to one of the newly anointed shadow cabinet members today who made it clear that "I am not a spokesperson for the Jeremy Corbyn camp. [The] BBC have formed the view I'm a Corbyn camp spokesperson" - and they made it clear that they were not.

    A revealing turn of phrase for two reasons. Firstly, the extraordinary sense of them and us between a newly-appointed cabinet minister and their leader. Secondly, if a shadow cabinet member doesn't speak for the leadership, then who does? 

    Perhaps this marks a new, less authoritarian, more devolved leadership style from Corbyn. Corbyn has a camp - and so does each cabinet minister. Maybe this is a good thing. 

    But when the going gets tough, someone needs to be about to stand up for him in the media...and to the rest of the party. And one wonders whether Corbyn will be left wishing that there were rather more people that felt like they were "in".

  6. Three acceptance speeches in Word Clouds

    From Blair to Cameron to Corbyn

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Here are word clouds generated for three leader acceptance speeches: Tony Blair in 1994, David Cameron in 2005 and Jeremy Corbyn from the weekend.

    The size of the word reflects the number of mentions.

    TONY BLAIR

    Word cloud of Tony Blair's 1994 acceptance speech

    DAVID CAMERON 

    Word cloud of David Cameron's 2005 acceptance speech

    JEREMY CORBYN

    Word cloud of Jeremy Corbyn's 2015 acceptance speech

    Spot anything? The same three things stand out from the Blair and Cameron clouds: "Labour/Conservative", "Country" and "Change". 

    Not one phrase (except, perhaps, "society") really stands from the Corbyn cloud. Buried within it you have things like "unions", "movement" and "decent", but you have to have a good stare to discern any pattern.

    This perhaps reflects the extemporaneous delivery from Mr Corbyn compared to the polished image-making performance of Blair and Cameron. Others might argue that those two had a clear trajectory which linked changing their party to changing the country and that any similar path was missing from the Corbyn speech. 

  7. Jeremy Corbyn's acceptance speech in full

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Jeremy Corbyn after winning the Labour Leadership

    Jeremy Corbyn's speech on Saturday was, it seemed, off the cuff and so no copy of it in its entirety has been released for public consumption, not at least that I have seen. 

    So, in the interests of posterity, I have transcribed it. 

    JEREMY CORBYN ACCEPTANCE SPEECH 12/09/15

    Can I start by thanking everyone who took part in this election, this huge democratic exercise of more than half a million people all across this country?

    It showed our party and our movement passionate, democratic, diverse, united and absolutely determined in our quest for a decent and better society that is possible for all.

    And there are many people I want to thank before I say a few more words if I may. First of all, for Ian McNichol, the General Secretary of the Party, and all of the party staff for their incredible hard work during this campaign and the general election campaign and all the other campaigns that we do and will continue to do. Iain, thank you very much and please make sure all our staff are aware of the appreciation we have for all of them. Thank you.

    I want also to pay a huge thanks and tribute to Harriet Harman, who has been our acting leader and our Deputy Leader and before that our acting leader. I’ve known Harriet for a very long time and what I would say of her is her absolute commitment and passion for decency, equality and the rights of women in our society is something we will honour her for, thank her for and we have legislation that’s been brought about by her determination. Harriet, thank you so much for all you’ve done and the way in which you’ve led the party since the tragedy of the election result in May.

    I want also to thank and congratulate Tom Watson for his election as Deputy Leader of the Party. Tom is passionate about communication, passionate about holding the state and unaccountable people who don’t wish to be accountable to account. Tom’s your man to do that.

    I want also to thank Ed Miliband for all the work he did as leader of our party. I had a very long conversation with Ed a couple of days ago and I thanked him for his work as leader of the party. I thanked him for his work as environment secretary and someone who’s passionate at defending the world’s environment against the way it’s being destroyed at the present time. But I also thanked him for the way in which he stood up to the abuse he received by much of our media and the dignity he showed when his late father, the great Ralph Miliband was so brutally abused by some of our media. So, Ed, thank you for all of that.

    I want to thank the fellow leadership candidates. We’ve been, we’re discussing the number, whether it’s 29, 35 or 39 hustings we’ve been to together since this election started.  We’ll discuss that later and exchange diaries. But it’s been a fascinating experience for all of us. And I want to thank them for the way the debates were conducted, the way we were able to put forward political debate and political differences and still come out of it at the end with a group hug. We’re going to reform ourselves as an ABBA tribute band and continue this work in the future.

    Andy Burnham was our Health Secretary and Andy’s passion and determination for a National Health Service as a human right, free at the point of us is something that comes over every time Andy speaks. And his passion for comprehensive education to ensure all children have a reasonable, fair and decent start in life.

    I want to say thank you to Yvette Cooper for all the work she’s done in Government and in the Party but, in particular, over the past few weeks helping to shape and turn round public opinion to show sympathy, humanity towards refugees and the way they’re treated.

    And one of my first acts as the leader of the party will be to go to the demonstration this afternoon to show support for the way that refugees should be treated and must be treated in this country.

    I want to thank Liz Kendall for her friendship during this campaign. For the way in which we’ve managed to have some moderately different opinions on a number of issues. But we’ve managed to maintain a very good friendship and Liz is somebody that I admire because she absolutely stands up for what she believes in, whether it’s easy, simple or popular or uneasy not simple or unpopular. So Liz, thank you very much. Those late night train rides will never be the same again.

    So thank you to my fellow candidates and to the thousands of party members that have attended the hustings events all over the country. And it’s quite amazing that every one of them was completely full, standing room only and many other members and supporters who unable to get along to them. That is a tribute to our party, all the candidates both for Deputy Leader and Leader and the way in which our members want passionately to engage in debate and be able to influence party policy and make our party more inclusive, more democratic and their membership better listened to in the future.

    I want to thank my own campaign team. They’ve been absolutely amazing. We came together after we got on the ballot paper, I appreciate with difficulty. And I want to say thank you to the 36 members of parliament, well 35 plus me – I nominated myself- for nominating me for this position. I know some of them had possibly some reluctance to do so, it is reported. But they did so in a spirit of inclusion and a spirit of democracy and I thank them for that and I look forward to working with all of them after this election campaign because we’ve got great work to do in the party.

    And so our campaign began with very little and we gained support, we gained volunteers and I thank the unions that nominated me: UNITE, UNISON, the TSSA, ASLEF, the Communications Workers Union,  the Prison Officers’ Association, the Bakers’ Union, the Socialist Education Association, the Socialist Health Association and the support received from the RMT Union and FBU and all the other unions that took part in this campaign. We are party organically linked together between the unions and the party membership and all the affiliated organisations. That is where we get our strength from.

    And as a former union organiser in NUPI, now part of UNISON, I fully understand the importance of unions at the workplace, defending people’s rights, standing up for their members and that’s why I don’t appreciate what this Government is trying to do to shackle unions in the Trade Union Bill they’re bringing forward on Monday.

    Our campaign attracted the support of 16,000 volunteers, all over the country. Organisers in each part of the country, that organised all the events and meetings that we have held. And in total we’ve done 99 of those events. Today is the century. And we are here at the end of this very long campaign. And it’s been quite incredible, the numbers of people that have come forward to join our party.

    But before I go onto that, I wanted to say a big thank you, they all know who they are, to my many personal friends, many people, everyone in Islington North Labour Party for electing me to Parliament 8 times until May this year, their fantastic comradeship, friendship and support. It’s been quite amazing and I absolutely value their advice. Sometimes its advice you don’t always want to receive but that’s the best advice you get and I want to say thank you to all of them in Islington North.

    I also say a huge thank you to all of my widest family, all of them, because they’ve been through the most appalling levels of abuse from some of our media over the past three months. It’s been intrusive, it’s been abusive, it’s been simply wrong. And I say to journalists: attack public political figures, make criticism of them. That’s ok, that is what politics is about. But please, don’t attack people who didn’t ask to be put in the limelight, who merely want to get on with their lives. Leave them alone. Leave them alone in all circumstances.

    During this amazing three months, our party has changed. We’ve grown enormously. We’ve grown enormously because of the hopes of so many ordinary people for a different Britain, a better Britain, a more equal Britain, a more decent Britain. They’re fed up with the inequality, the injustice, the unnecessary poverty; all of those issues have brought people in, in a spirit of hope and optimism. So I say to the new members of the party or those who have joined as registered supporters or affiliated supporters, welcome, welcome to our party, welcome to our movement. And I say to those returning to the party who were in it before and felt disillusioned and went away: welcome back, welcome back to your party, welcome home.

    And as the media and maybe many of us simply didn’t understand the views of many young people within our society: they had been written off as a non-political generation, who are simply not interested hence the relatively low turnout and level of registration of young people in the last General Election. They weren’t. They’re a very political generation that were turned off by the way in which politics was being conducted and not attracted or interested in it. We have to and must change that.

    So, the fight back now of our party gathers speed and gathers pace. I’m delighted that Kezia Dugdale is here today, our leader in Scotland. We’re all going to be campaigning in Scotland for Labour in Scotland with those great traditions, those great Labour traditions in Scotland.

    I thank Carwyn Jones for his leadership and the way in which we’re going to fight in Wales and I congratulate them on ending the internal market in the health service in Wales: something we want to do in the rest of Britain. And I say congratulations to Marvin Rees, selected yesterday as our mayoral candidate in Bristol. We’re all going to be down there, Marvin, helping you and supporting you to win Bristol.

    And to my friend Sadiq Khan, who’s been elected as our mayoral candidate for London: Sadiq, we’re going to be campaigning together. And we’re going to be campaigning together particularly on the crucial issue of housing in London. I am fed up with the social cleansing of London by this Tory government and its policies. We need a Labour mayor in London who can ensure we do house everyone in London, we do end the sky high rents, we do end the insecurity of those living in the private rental sector. We need a Labour mayor to bring that about in this wonderful, great city of London and Sadiq’s the man to do it.

    This week, the Tories will show what they’re really made of. On Monday they have the Trade Union Bill to undermine even the ILO conventions and shackle democratic unions and destroy another element of democracy in our society. We have to oppose that.

    They’re also pushing the Welfare Reform Bill, which will bring misery and poverty to so many of the poorest in our society. I want us as a movement to be strong, proud and able to stand up and say “We want to live in a society where we don’t pass by on the other side of those people rejected by an unfair welfare system.” Instead we reach out to end the scourge of homelessness and desperation that so many people face in our society. We’re strong enough and big enough and able to do that. That is what we’re about.

    There are many, many issues we face and many people face desperation in other parts of the world and I think it’s quite incredible the way the mood in Europe has changed over the past few weeks of understanding that people fleeing from wars, they are the victims of wars, they are the generational victims of wars, the inter-generational victims of war, end up in desperation, end up in terrible places, end up trying to get a place of safety, end up trying to exercise their refugee rights. They are human beings just like you, just like me. Let’s deal with the refugee crisis with humanity, with support, with help, with compassion to try to help people trying to get to a place of safety, trying to help people who are stuck in refugee camps but recognise going to war creates a legacy of bitterness and problems.

    Let us be a force for change in the world, a force for humanity in the world, a force for peace in the world and a force that recognises we cannot go on like this, with grotesque levels of global inequality, grotesque threats to our environment all around the world without the rich and powerful governments stepping up to the plate to make sure our world becomes safer and better. And those people don’t end up in poverty, in refugee camps wasting their lives away when they could be contributing so much to the good of all of us on this planet. We are one world, let that message go out today from this conference centre in London.

    I conclude by this: the Tories have used the economic crisis of 2008 to impose a terrible burden on the poorest people in this country. Those who have seen their wages frozen or cut. Those who can’t afford to even sustain themselves properly. Those that rely on food banks to get by. It’s not right, it’s not necessary and it’s got to change. We need an economic strategy that improves people’s lives, that expands our economy, that reaches out to care for everybody. You can’t do that if, at the same time, you do nothing about grotesque levels of inequality in our society. We need to develop an economic policy that deals with those issues.

    And so, our party is about justice, is about democracy, it is about the great traditions we walk on. Those that founded our party and our movement, those that stood up for human rights and justice: the rights for women to vote, the right for others to vote. We stand here today because of their work. But we go forward now as a movement and as a party. Bigger than we’ve ever been for a long, long time. Stronger than we’ve ever been for a long, long time. More determined than we’ve been for a long, long time to show to everyone that the objectives of our party are intact, our passion is intact, our demand for humanity is intact.

    And we as a party are going to reach out to everyone in this country to take us on that journey together so no one is left on the side, everyone has a decent chance in life and a decent place within our society. That’s what Labour was brought about to achieve. That is what we’re going to achieve.

    This election campaign is, as we see here, about shaping our future. Our party is going to, I hope, become more inclusive, more involved, more democratic and we’re going to shape the future of everyone in this country in a way which, I feel, will be remembered as something which is good for everyone, that brings about the justice that we all crave. And this is what brought us into this wonderful party and this wonderful movement ourselves.

    I say thank you to everyone for all their support, friendship and comradeship during this election process. And I say thank you in advance to us all working together to achieve great victories, not just electorally for Labour but emotionally for the whole of our society to show that we don’t have to be unequal, it doesn’t have to be unfair, poverty isn’t inevitable. Things can, and they will, change. Thank you very much.

  8. The Trouble with Labour's Europe Position

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn

    Hilary Benn, reappointed shadow foreign secretary, this morning said that Labour would campaign to stay in Europe in the forthcoming referendum, despite Jeremy Corbyn being a well known critic of Europe and, in his resignation letter, Chuka Umunna suggesting Corbyn was sticking to Euroscepticism.

    Speaking on the Today programme, Benn said: "Jeremy has made it very clear that we are going to stay to fight together for a better Europe. We will be campaigning to remain in the European Union."

    My understanding is that this is actually not certain. Instead Jeremy Corbyn is due to go in to see the In and Out camp this week.

    The new Labour leader has told Labour MPs active in that campaign that his decision on whether or not to campaign for Out in the forthcoming referendum will be determined at a special conference of Labour members to take place by the end of the year or early next year.

    He is said to believe that Labour members will probably decide to campaign to stay in the European Union, but that he is not sure.

    Over the weekend Corbyn came under pressure after Chuka Umunna left the front bench partly citing difference over the EU referendum campaign with his new leader.

    I've just spoken to Frank Field, one of the MPs who nominated Corbyn in the first place, and he's clear Corbyn can't credibly campaign for Britain to stay in Europe.

    He said: "Given Jeremy's previous position on Europe, I don't see how he can possibly campaign for an In vote".

  9. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 14th September

  10. 'I can't read my own writing'

    View more on youtube

    Thanks for joining us here. We're wrapping up our live coverage of the new Labour leadership. You can follow along for more updates on the BBC Live page.

    Before we go - and in case you missed it - here's the report we ran on the eve of Jeremy Corbyn's victory.

    Stephen Smith and Ruaridh Arrow go in search of the real Corbyn. Turns out he's got a pretty unusual approach to speech writing. Enjoy. 

    We're back on Monday 22:30 on BBC Two. 

  11. Deputy Leader: Recap

    Tom Watson

    The new deputy leader of the Labour Party is Tom Watson. Here's how the votes for deputy leader were cast.  

    Results table of deputy Labour leadership
  12. Labour leadership - a few figures

    A quick recap if you're just joining us.

    Jeremy Corbyn has won the Labour leadership by a huge margin.

    Here's how the votes stacked up in the end.

    A table showing the votes cast for each Labour leadership contender

    And here are the figures on the turnout

    A table showing turnout
  13. Written on his face?

    Jeremy Corbyn

    This was Jeremy Corbyn right before the announcement he'd been elected the new Labour Party leader.

    The news was made public at 11:30, but the candidates themselves had been told about an hour before - and sworn to secrecy. Spot any telltale signs?

  14. Better news for Andy Burnham

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

      Following the leadership announcement, Andy Burnham was braced for his day to get even worse:  

      Well, with a few minutes to go, the scoreline is Everton 3, Chelsea 1. Small consolation, perhaps, but at least he can watch Match of the Day with a happy heart this evening. He will have to struggle through the news bulletins first, though. 

    He seems a bit more chipper already: 

  15. Could Corbyn absent himself from PMQs?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Our colleagues at BBC Newsbeat have reported that Jeremy Corbyn might share out his duties at Prime Minister's Questions.

    An interesting bit of background to this comes from a speech by Speaker John Bercow in July 2010:

    "An informal understanding also emerged that the Leader of the Opposition would be called on both days if he wished and have the right to ask a supplementary. Hence the proportion of all questions asked by party leaders rose from 10 per cent in 1967-1968 to 25% in 1987-1988 to 33.4% by 2007-2008. This was not the result of any deliberate action of the House. Indeed, backbenchers would make their irritation known if party leaders were excessive. Margaret Thatcher, when Leader of the Opposition, averaged only 1.6 interventions a session. This was partly because if she was due to speak in a parliamentary debate on a Tuesday or Thursday she frequently would not participate in PMQs at all but also because her team came to the view that if she had not drawn parliamentary blood in the first two questions then it would be counterproductive to strain the patience of the House with a third one. This self-denying ordinance or simple tactical retreat has since gone out of fashion."

    What Mr Bercow illustrates is that it is a relatively recent phenomenon for Leaders of the Opposition to intrude largely at PMQs. Mr Corbyn might be about to turn the clock back.   

  16. More reaction

  17. A taste of the Jez We Can party

  18. Corbyn: The first few days

    Alex Campbell

    Newsnight producer

    Jeremy Corbyn

    Once the euphoria of his movement subsides, the work begins.

    In the coming days, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will address the TUC conference, assemble and announce a shadow cabinet and address a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party – a meeting he previously made a habit of avoiding in his 32 years as an MP.

    Then comes Prime Minister’s Questions and a clash between two leaders who could not be more divided in their politics, their style or their rhetoric.

    Cameron’s scathing and often personal quips at the Despatch Box are probably emblematic of the “personality politics” Corbyn has railed against.

    But facing inevitable, pithy attacks that he can’t even unite his own party, that his beliefs are a threat to economic survival and even to national security, can the “straight talking, honest politics” of the Corbyn campaign win over the wider public in the 40-second pantomime exchanges that make the News at 10?

    Questioning on the highly sensitive subject of the refugee crisis might be his strategy to avoid being too comfortably swatted on his first outing.

    One thing that it seems Jeremy Corbyn will not be undertaking in his first few days at the helm is a glut of media appearances.

    Rob Burley, the editor of the Andrew Marr programme, tweeted this afternoon that Corbyn has already pulled out of a planned appearance on the show tomorrow morning.

    Given frequent complaints from the Corbyn camp about misreporting throughout the campaign – juxtaposed with the emphatic nature of his victory – could it be that the Leader of the Opposition’s policy on the mass media is simply that he doesn’t need them?

    There’s no denying that Corbyn’s victory is one of the greatest upsets in modern political history. But after the earthquake comes the tidying up, and there’s an awful lot of it to do. 

  19. Thatcher undone?

  20. This isn't 1983, this is uncharted territory

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Jeremy Corbyn is the most radical left wing leader the Labour party membership has elected in modern times.

    Many cite Michael Foot. But as I wrote some months ago (when all this seemed but a distant prospect) Foot was an entirely different kettle of fish. He was elected only by Labour party MPs, not the membership at large. He was chosen by the PLP as the unity candidate, against the more abrasive Denis Healy, winning the support of 129 of his fellow Labour MPs as opposed to Healey's 119. Corbyn,, by contrast could barely rustle 35 nominations and only did so with a great deal of help from colleagues who had no intention of voting for him. Foot had been a distinguished cabinet minister, an insider, defending the Labour government of Jim Callaghan’s last stand, as Leader of the House in  the 1979 no confidence debate. Up to now, Corbyn's most senior position had been as a member of the Social Security Select Committee.  Foot came to fight the left and the left came to dislike him and nor was he a pacifist, supporting the Thatcher government in its prosecution of the Falklands War.  

    Michael Foot

    Moreover, it seems to me that the Left within the party membership and the trade union movement at large are far more powerful even  than they were in the 1980s. After all, the last time a truly powerful figure of the left contested an election seriously was Tony Benn in 1981 for the deputy leadership election against Healey. Benn lost by the narrowest of margins, “half a hair on a half an eyebrow” as Healey later said. But lose he did, by 0.9%.  The party which had been infiltrated at every level by the entryist left, had in fact voted (albeit by the narrowest of margins) for a man who had just a few years before inflicted a series of austerity budgets as Chancellor.  Today, by contrast, the vast majority of the party (members old and new) voted for the most left wing candidate in modern times as their leader. 

    It’s fair to say that Jeremy Corbyn is the biggest outsider and the hitherto most marginal figure to be elected leader in the party’s history. In the postwar period he is doubtless the most leftist. The electoral schism in the Labour party is and has always been that you can’t run and win from the left. One way or another that dictum is about to be tested like never before.

  21. The press reacts

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    A theme of Jeremy Corbyn's speech (picked up on by his supporters) was the need to stand firm against attacks from the media.

    In some quarters it has already started:

    Daily Mail online frontpage

    You perhaps would not have expected anything different from the Mail. However, it's worth noting that the rest of the press are reporting it in a relatively dispassionate way. The Sun are currently going with the mild pun of "It's Jeremy Corbwin: Leftie lands Labour Leadership",the Telegraph focus on the frontbenchers who are not going to serve (albeit with a Dan Hodges comment piece on "The day the Labour Party died"), the Times are playing it straight. The Guardian and Indy are warm.

    Now they may (particularly the tabloids) be keeping their powder dry ahead of tomorrow morning's front pages, but as reactions go, it's not too bad. Even if the attacks start to intensify, you suspect that Mr Corbyn will wear them like a badge of honour.

  22. More post-match reaction

  23. What now for the 4.5%?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    The four Labour leadership contenders

    As Evan has pointed out, one of the most significant moments in Jeremy Corbyn's speech was the place where he offered warm words for Liz Kendall.

    In all honesty, he could afford to be magnanimous towards the only avowedly Blairite candidate. Her defeat was all but total. It's not much remarked upon, but her achievement in getting under 17% of Labour MPs to support her did not bode well for her chances.

    It ended that she got just 4.5% of the vote, well below even the total that the pollsters were predicting. This is despite (or is it because of?) two high profile interventions from Tony Blair, alongside other dire warnings from figures such as Alan Johnson and Peter Mandelson. 

    Everyone was talking before the result about the effect of the £3 members and how they might sweep aside the views of long-standing members. While they did vote overwhelmingly for Mr Corbyn, even among the members Liz Kendall did very poorly with only 5.5%. 

    So, here is the state of the Blairites as I write:

    • They can muster 17% of Labour MPs
    • They can muster 5.5% of Labour members
    • They can muster 4.5% of the entire Labour selectorate

    All that they have now is the capacity to make a media impact (anything said by Blair, Johnson, Mandelson, Milburn, Clarke et al will be voraciously devoured by the media, including programmes like Newsnight) but this result arguably suggests that they are no longer really relevant to the direction of the party over (at least) the next 2 years.

  24. Who will be Labour Leader at the next election?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Ladbrokes have been quick off the blocks. Before the ink has barely dried on Jeremy Corbyn's acceptance speech, the bookie has stolen a march on its rivals by offering odds on who will be Labour Leader at the time of the next General Election. 

    Good news for Mr Corbyn is that he is 5/4 favourite. Less good news is that Ladbrokes should even see the demand for such a market at this stage. The next favourites are:

    • Dan Jarvis 6/1
    • David Miliband 10/1
    • Chuka Umunna 12/1
    • Tom Watson 14/1
    • Keir Starmer 16/1
    • Alan Johnson 25/1
    • BAR 33/1
  25. That Corbyn victory in context

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Jeremy Corbyn  got 251,417 votes in this contest. By way of comparison, that's over 50,000 more than David Cameron AND David Davis got combined in the final round of the Tory leadership contest of 2005.

  26. Rachel Reeves to stay on backbenches

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Very significant decision. Seems like most of the big hitters are going to declare their intentions to serve under Corbyn or not by end of today.

  27. The post-result scene

  28. The Tory response

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Michael Fallon
    Image caption: "A risk to our nation's security" says Michael Fallon

    Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has given us the first Tory comment:

    “Labour are now a serious risk to our nation’s security, our economy’s security and your family’s security.

     “Whether it’s weakening our defences, raising taxes on jobs and earnings, racking up more debt and welfare or driving up the cost of living by printing money – Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party will hurt working people. 

    “This is a very serious moment for our country – the Conservatives will continue to deliver stability, security and opportunity for working people."

    Mr Fallon is Mr Cameron's preferred attack dog on important occasions. He got into trouble during the election for saying "“Ed Miliband stabbed his own brother in the back to become Labour leader. Now he is willing to stab the United Kingdom in the back to become prime minister.”

    What Fallon has just said is in line with the Prime Minister's speech a couple of days ago when he talked continually about security. He was primarily talking about economic security, but Fallon is more explicit in talking about national security. This theme of security will run through Conservative attacks on Labour for as long as Mr Corbyn is leader.

    Tim Montgomerie wrote an interesting piece yesterday about the Tory strategy. See here.

  29. The first "resignation"

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Shadow Health Minister Jamie Reed has tabled his "resignation" from that role in a very interesting letter to new leader Jeremy Corbyn.

    Two things: first, this is not a resignation. It is always the prerogative of a new leader to appoint their own team, so it wasn't really Mr Reed's post to resign.

    Second, he will not be the first of the previous frontbench to refuse to serve. The question is: what exactly is the threshold of take up from people on the right of the party that enables Corbyn to say that he is bringing the party together?

    If that number is just a handful, then he will be fine. If most of the big hitters (Chuka Umunna, Tristram Hunt, Liz Kendall, Emma Reynolds et al) on the Blairite wing sit it out, then increasingly it looks like an opposition within an opposition.

  30. Another polling disaster

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    I say this with tongue firmly in cheek, but while YouGov will be breathing a sigh of relief that they correctly picked the winner in this race, it's worth noting that the last YouGov poll (which put Corbyn at 53% on the first round) was still over 6% out from his final result.

    Now, the pollsters would say that this reflects a surge towards Corbyn as the race reached its climax, but it just shows that polling is only really picked up on when you get the overall winner wrong. Misjudging the scale of a victory is very rarely remembered. 

  31. Jeremy Corbyn acceptance speech

  32. The result - more reaction

  33. Did Newsnight call it first?

  34. The result

  35. Now what for Jeremy Corbyn?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Chart of challenge facing Jeremy Corbyn

    So Jeremy Corbyn has done it. He's the leader of the Labour Party. 

    It's worth repeating a chart I put up a couple of weeks ago on the challenge for he faces. 

    He's won over the second smallest square - the dark red one. 

    Next he needs to win over the little orange square - labour MPs - to be effective in Parliament. Very few of them nominated him - and there's already some evidence that the rebels are organising. The boost in authority he gets from his endorsement from activists won't last forever.

    Which brings us to the 2015 Labour voters. Remember that there are chunks of these - even in their working class base - that fundamentally disagree with Corbyn on issues like immigration. He's either going to have to try and moderate to accommodate their concerns as Miliband tried, or convince them that they were wrong. This is not an easy thing to do. 

    Finally, the extra voters he needs to win a majority. Fabian society analysis suggested this can't be done from the votes of existing left wingers like the greens. So the obvious conclusion is that he needs to win over Tories - another big ask for a left winger like Corbyn. Now, Corbyn supporters will tell you he can mobilise the fabled non voters into action. But there's no decent evidence I'm aware of that suggests these non voters are any more likely to vote Labour than others. And these people, by their very nature, are harder to turn out than other voters. 

    Corbyn's is a remarkable achievement. But, as this chart shows, this is just the beginning.   

  36. Watson speech

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Leading anecdote is about 1972 Miner's Strike. Thanks the unions.

    Calls Labour the "last line of defence against the Tories". There's only "one Labour", the "guardians of decency". 

    Lots of good crowd-pleasing stuff. Nothing so far that Jeremy Corbyn would disagree with.

    Ah, wait: he talks that there is no conflict between being pro-business and pro-worker. Jeremy Corbyn might apply some caveats to that.

    Now talking about the "old politics". See my previous post.

  37. Leadership result imminent

  38. Watson wins Deputy Leadership

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    He didn't even need to go to the final round. 50.7% after third round. Big job for him ahead.

  39. Deputy Leader vote

  40. Sadiq Khan speaks

  41. Corbyn to win big?

  42. Tweets from the team

  43. Tom Watson to be elected Deputy Leader?

  44. Tweets from the team

  45. Transfer deadline

    Will non-transferred votes be crucial?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    As it stands, nobody is thinking that this race is going to be particularly close. If it is, however, then the transfer of votes from candidates who are eliminated will become crucial.

    In the Labour London candidate election yesterday, 8935 votes were not transferred by the time it came to the run-off between Sadiq Khan and Tessa Jowell. This was nearly 10% of the total. 

    If this is repeated in half an hour, then this could have a material effect on who wins. Unless, of course, a candidate gets over 50% in the first round. 

  46. The Labour Leadership race in four charts

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    As the saying goes you never seek a poor bookie. If that's the case, then Jeremy Corbyn will shortly be declared Labour Party leader. 

    A perfect way of illustrating this is to look at the chart showing implied probability of winning and volume of bets on Betfair, the betting exchange.

    LIZ KENDALL

    Betfair chart on Liz Kendall's chances of winning Labour Leadership

    ANDY BURNHAM

    Betfair chart on Andy Burnham's chances of winning Labour Leadership

    YVETTE COOPER

    Betfair chart on Yvette Cooper's chances of winning Labour Leadership

    JEREMY CORBYN

    Betfair chart on Jeremy Corbyn's chances of winning Labour Leadership

    So, Liz Kendall had an implied chance of winning at over 45% at one stage. Andy Burnham was at over 80% at one point. Yvette Cooper was at 40%.

    But look at that Corbyn steamroller, going from close to 0% to the end point today of (effectively) 100%.

    Incidentally, over £3 million has been staked on this election at Betfair.

  47. The view from the QEII

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    Morning. Myself and Newsnight's programme editors Imogen Walford and Jess Brammar are at the Queen Elizabeth II centre this morning to watch Labour find out who its 18th leader is. 

    Some in Labour are reeling from the mayoral result yesterday - the scale of Tessa Jowell's defeat yesterday has shocked the people who used to run Labour, and the country, to the core. One senior figure believes what is happening to Labour is a "catastrophe". The large margin - 41% to Sadiq Khan 59% was not seen coming. If Jeremy Corbyn's win is also by such a large margin, it gives him a large mandate too. His opponents had hoped it would be a small margin and so limiting his scope for manoeuvre as leader. So we wait to see the scale of his victory.

    Others will feel another new different dawn has broken - including a lady I was chatting to near my house (it is a Saturday, after all, and even us political journalists have things to do before heading to conference centres across the land...) said their 23 year old had voted Corbyn, interested by this election for the first time ever. Into this mix will come the deputy leader - the first announcement this morning. A figure who feels he has to hold the two factions - old New Labour and new Old Labour, if you like - together. That is likely to be Tom Watson but again, let's wait and see. Watson gave a speech this week that is worth a second look - apparently he used it as his last chance to put down a marker of his red lines before this weekend when he is elected and will have to be loyal ie keep schtum. The speech is here - he makes it clear that internally he will fight to defend Labour's historic military and foreign affairs traditions... That means he'll stop Corbyn taking the UK out of NATO. And he'll oppose any plans for mandatory deselection.   

  48. No more Punch & Judy politics?

    Could Jeremy Corbyn as leader succeed where others have failed?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Punch and Judy

    Ahead of an election result where most expect him to come out on top, Jeremy Corbyn has been setting out the style of leadership that he wants to adopt. 

    He has said: "Fundamentally many people are turned off by a political process when the major parties are not saying anything different enough about how we run the economy, and totally turned off by a style of politics which seems to rely on the levels of clubhouse theatrical abuse that you can throw across at each other in parliament and across the airwaves."

    But some of you might be getting a slight touch of deja vu. Cast your minds back to December 2005. In his acceptance speech to be Tory leader, David Cameron said:

    "And we need to change, and we will change, the way we behave. I'm fed up with the Punch and Judy politics of Westminster, the name calling, backbiting, point scoring, finger pointing."

    And what about this, from new Prime Minister Gordon Brown in June 2008:

    "And this need for change cannot be met by the old politics so I will reach out beyond narrow party interest; I will build a government that uses all the talents; I will invite men and women of goodwill to contribute their energies in a new spirit of public service to make our nation what it can be."

    Or Ed Miliband's first speech as Labour leader in September 2010:

    "I stand here today ready to lead: a new generation now leading Labour. Be in no doubt.The new generation of Labour is different. Different attitudes, different ideas, different ways of doing politics."

    It would be a quick job to find other such statements from other leaders over the years. The point is that no new leader has ever made a speech standing up for the "old way of doing politics" and no new leader has ever made a speech where he says that they want to "continue the factionalism and partisanship of the past."

    The problem is that most leaders find it hard to turn that aspiration (even when it is genuine) into reality. David Cameron freely admits that he completely failed in his attempt to abandon "Punch and Judy": indeed, he is one of the most practiced exponents of it in PMQs. Gordon Brown's attempt at a new politics was sunk in the mire of MPs' expenses. Ed Miliband wanted to lead a "New Generation" but was sunk partly by his own association with the past.

    And then there is the party morale bit. Partisan politics may play badly with the electorate but it is deemed essential to keep your own MPs on side. Given the lack of support among MPs that Mr Corbyn has, perhaps his is the best strategy. But week after week of sober performance at the Dispatch Box can contribute to a sense that a leader is under-performing. Iain Duncan Smith tried to make a virtue of this by trying to establish a "Quiet Man" persona. It did not end well for him.

    The question is: would Mr Corbyn break the mould of modern politics and demonstrate that an unshowy, sincere expression on ideas can win people over or would he find out, as others have before him, that image, presentation and showmanship are now essential elements of modern political leadership?

  49. After the election, the honeymoon?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    In case you missed it, earlier in the week I took a look at the honeymoons that other Leaders of the Opposition enjoyed and a few lessons for today's victor.

    More here

  50. The plan for the day

    Welcome to Newsnight Live's Labour leadership special.

    Here's a outline of what will happen this morning:

    • 11:00 Special leadership conference at the Queen Elizabeth Centre in Westminster begins
    • The result of the deputy leadership election will be announced first. The candidates are: Tom Watson, Caroline Flint, Ben Bradshaw, Stella Creasy and Angela Eagle
    • At about 11:30, we should get the result of the Labour leadership race
    • The new leader is expected to speak soon after
  51. Written in the stars?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    A difficult day for the four candidates. The losers will have to measure their reaction to defeat adroitly to avoid accusations of sour grapes and disunity. The winner will have to work out how to keep the party together after a bruising contest.

    Some people seek guidance from their daily horoscope. Newsnight does not endorse astrology, but in the interest of serving those people who do believe (maybe even some of the candidates), here are the readings for the four, as provided by the Horoscope.com site.

    YVETTE COOPER (March 20)

    Pisces: There could be some confusion, discord, and upset in the air today. There may be arguments and misunderstandings among friends and family. Try not to add fuel to the fire. If a person is getting a little hot under the collar, just listen. Be understanding and empathetic instead of trying to prove that you're right, especially if you are!

    JEREMY CORBYN (May 26)

    Gemini: Today you may feel a powerful need to be with friends, Gemini, but once you seek them out, you may not enjoy their company very much. Someone is in a bad mood, and being with this person could put a damper on your day. It might be better to take some time for yourself, perhaps go for a workout. This will enable you to get some exercise and increase your self-confidence as well.

    LIZ KENDALL (June 11)

    Gemini: See above

    ANDY BURNHAM (January 7)

    Capricorn: You may have been exercising too enthusiastically over the past few days, Capricorn, and today you might wake up with more than your share of muscle aches and pains. You should keep exercising, but tone it down. Forget jogging and aerobics. Go for a little yoga or tai chi, which will enhance fitness with minimal strain. If you can, soak in a warm tub later.

  52. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Saturday 12 September 2015

  53. Who will it be?

    The Labour leadership contenders

    By about 11:30 on Saturday we will know who the new Labour leader is.

    It's been an incredible campaign. 

    The Newsnight team will be here with updates and analysis from 10:00 on Saturday, and also live-tweeting @BBCNewsnight

  54. NEWSNIGHT LIVE LABOUR LEADERSHIP RESULT

  55. The Honeymooners

    How long do Leaders of the Opposition keep their new car smell?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Producer

    Whoever ends up as Labour Leader at lunchtime on Saturday will be hoping and praying for a quick boost to their party's poll ratings to keep their critics at bay and to prevent a media narrative from developing that the party has elected a dud.

    What are the chances of that happening?

    I've looked at the poll ratings enjoyed (or endured) by each leader of the opposition since John Smith in 1992 to see how they have fared. I've taken a moving average of the polls to prevent a single poll from carrying too much weight. For each chart below, you will see two lines that intersect at the point where the person becomes leader. Everything above that line represents an improvement on the position they inherited. Everything below represents going backwards from where they took the job.

    ED MILIBAND

    Labour Party Poll Ratings under Ed Miliband

    First point to make is that Labour made up a lot of ground after they lost the 2010 election and before a new leader was elected. Part of this is explained by those more left-leaning Lib Dem voters abandoning the party for going into coalition with the Tories.

    Second point is that, despite a concerted media narrative that the party had elected the "wrong" Miliband, Labour's poll performance did pick up under Ed. It took until the start of 2012 before the average rating went below the one he inherited. After that point it went back up again, reaching the highest point of the Miliband tenure in the summer of 2012.

    It was, however, mostly downhill from there. Around May 2013 he had gone back below the line and, despite another rally, by the end of 2014 Labour were performing well below the levels that they enjoyed when he became leader and close to the levels they were at immediately after losing the 2010 election. 

    This suggests that, while voters might have agreed with Labour on much of their opposition to what the government were doing, the closer the election came, the more focused they were on whether Labour were a viable alternative. We know what conclusion they ultimately reached.

    One additional point that will become clearer when you see the other charts: the sheer density of polling that happened over the past five years compared to prior election cycles. This has the effect that party leaders under fire now face a constant barrage of bad poll news. In another era, there would not have been the sheer attritive quantity of polling to cast doubt on a leader's performance.

    DAVID CAMERON

    Conservative Party Polling Ratings under David Cameron

    As with Labour after 2010, the Conservatives achieved a bounce (albeit more modest) after their defeat in 2005. David Cameron had a pretty big bounce after becoming leader on the back of a swathe of positive media coverage of him being a different kind of Tory leader. 

    What is surprising looking back, however, is how short-lived his honeymoon was. By around April in 2006, the gains made by the party under Cameron had all but vanished. He bounced back for a year or so, but the arrival of Gordon Brown in 10 Downing Street presaged a well-documented crisis for Cameron. The cancellation of an early election in October 2008 triggered one of the most remarkable bounces in recent political history. 

    For months afterwards, Mr Cameron enjoyed a second honeymoon as Mr Brown struggled with, as Vince Cable remarked, his transition from "Stalin to Mr Bean". But what was true for Ed Miliband was also true for David Cameron: the closer the General Election, the more the Conservative poll ratings were squeezed as people weighed up whether they really trusted them to run the country.

    IDS AND MICHAEL HOWARD

    Conservative Party Poll Ratings under IDS and Michael Howard

    The first of a couple of pairs and possibly the most surprising chart of them all. Iain Duncan Smith is regarded as having been a disastrous leader of the Conservative Party. But looking at the chart above it can be seen that, not only did he steadily increase the Tory Party's ratings but he also never went below the rating that he inherited as party leader. Two caveats: firstly, the Tory Party's ratings at this time were pretty terrible and so improving on them slightly was not the most impressive of achievements. Secondly, he suffered a big crash in poll performance shortly before he was ousted, contributing to a sense that the party got rid of him before he could take the party any lower.

    Conversely, Michael Howard is widely thought to have steadied the ship after the IDS period finished. While it is true that the polls did pick up after he took charge, he had a fairly short-lived honeymoon: around seven months after becoming leader he was below the level IDS left him. He then went on to preside over lower poll ratings than IDS had achieved prior to his fall.

    WILLIAM HAGUE

    Conservative Party Poll Ratings under William Hague

    Like IDS, William Hague is not regarded as having been a successful party leader. Like IDS, however, Mr Hague, did slowly improve the Tory Party's ratings from a low base to a slightly less low base. 

    There was a brief moment at the height of the fuel crisis in late 2000 where it looked like he could break through to win an election, but, in common with most of the leaders under consideration, things petered out as the crunch time of an election got close. 

    JOHN SMITH AND TONY BLAIR

    Labour Party Poll Ratings under John Smith and Tony Blair

    The second pair. John Smith had an unspectacular start as Labour leader, taking a party traumatised by a fourth general election defeat. Black Wednesday and Britain's departure from the ERM gave his leadership rocket boosters by the end of 1992, but, after a year as leader, Labour's ratings were bobbing around the level he inherited. At the time of his death, they were starting to trend upwards again. 

    The time of Tony Blair as Leader of the Opposition was a golden time for the party, regularly getting above 55% of the vote in polls. Even with Blair, though, there was a dripping away of support as the election neared. Blair's average went below the level his inherited just as the General Election campaign got under way.

    LESSONS FOR THE NEXT LABOUR LEADER

    The Labour leadership contenders
    1. You will get a bounce as undecided voters give you a fair crack of the whip.
    2. The size of the bounce has to be viewed in the context of how badly Labour did at the election. A bounce from 30% to 33% still leaves you way short of where you need to be. Blair had a relatively small bounce, but Labour were already polling in the 40% territory.
    3. On a related note, improving on what you inherited isn't always enough.
    4. Get ready for a rollercoaster. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron experienced near-death experiences and against-the-odds comebacks. David Cameron in particular was probably days away from losing an election and his job in 2008. Leaders of the Opposition can often be given a boost by a timely policy (energy price freeze, inheritance tax break) or a timely event (a Black Wednesday, a Fuel Crisis, an Election That Never Was). 
    5. Build up a big lead ahead of a general election: all of the Leaders of the Opposition considered above who made it to an election suffered a big erosion of their support as election day approached. If you're level-pegging with the Conservatives in Winter 2019, the trend suggests that you're going to struggle come May 2020.
  56. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 10 September 2015

  57. Julian Assange and The Wikileaks Files

    View more on youtube

    Whatever happened to Julian Assange? Yes, he's still at the Ecuadorean Embassy in London. He's been there for three years now. One of the ways he's been spending his time is commissioning a series of essays, which have been put together as a book, The Wikileaks Files. He agreed to speak to Newsnight's Nick Hopkins on that - and that alone.

  58. UK public 'split' over taking refugees

    According to our poll with ComRes

    Refugees from Syria pray after arriving on the shores of the Greek island of Lesbos

    Some 57% of people in the UK are in favour of the status quo, or the government taking fewer refugees from Syria and Libya, a poll suggests.

    Forty per cent said the UK should take in more.

    One thousand people were interviewed by telephone between Friday and Sunday in a ComRes poll for BBC Newsnight.

    There were sharp divisions on class and age - with middle class and younger people more favourable to taking refugees.

    The poll was an attempt to gauge public opinion after the publication of photos showing the body of three-year-old Syrian boy Alan Kurdi after his family's ill-fated attempt to reach Europe.

    Keep reading here

  59. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 7 September 2015

  60. SPECIAL PROGRAMME TONIGHT

    From Budapest and Berlin

    Many are calling this the biggest crisis that Europe has faced since the Second War War - how will Europe respond? 

    Will it unravel or come closer together? 

    TONIGHT's programme is dedicated to the crisis - with Emily Maitlis presenting from Budapest, and Mark Urban in Berlin. 22.30 on BBC Two.  

    A man holds a placard reading 'Help Europe' outside the Keleti (East) railway station in Budapest
  61. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 4 September 2015

  62. David Blunkett: UK should take 25,000 refugees in six months

    David Blunkett

    The UK should take in 25,000 refugees over the next six months, former Labour Home Secretary David Blunkett has said.

    In an interview with BBC Newsnight, Mr Blunkett said the US and other developed nations should share responsibility for responding to "a global crisis".

    But he said the UK needs to take "very large numbers" of refugees if it is "to be taken seriously" as a nation.

    Those from Syria and women and children should have priority, Mr Blunkett said.

    The former minister's intervention came as the government faced increasing pressure to commit to taking more people fleeing conflict, following the publication around the world of images of a young Syrian boy who drowned and was found on a beach in Turkey.

    Mr Blunkett said: "This time we must be seen not to wash our hands and not to pretend that, good though it is, investment we are making in the camps in the region is an alternative to overcoming the sheer, blinding misery of women and children who have nowhere else to go, who are destitute".

    "I understand entirely people do not want the borders opened and do not want a situation where anything goes," he added.

    "How could I not understand that, having been home secretary at a time when we had to take quite drastic measures? But this is on a different scale."

    Mr Blunkett was home secretary from 2001-2004, during which time he took a hard line stance and significantly reduced the number of asylum seekers accepted into the UK.

    "With united agreement from the developed world and a united front from Europe, we won't have the pictures we have seen this week, we won't have the handwringing," he said.

    Mr Blunkett said the photos of three-year-old Aylan Kurdi lying dead on a Turkish beach have "brought this home to people in a way that all the words that we could ever use could never do."

    Speaking earlier on Thursday Prime Minister David Cameron said that "as a father" he felt "deeply moved" by the images, and said the UK would meet its "moral responsibilities" but he did not give any commitment on numbers.

    Mr Blunkett's suggestion is a significant increase on the figure of 10,000 whichLabour leadership contender Yvette Cooper called for on Tuesday.

    The interview with David Blunkett will air on the programme tonight at 22.30 on BBC Two.

  63. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 3 September 2015

  64. On tonight... Emma Thompson

    Talking about arctic drilling, climate change and refugees

    Emily Maitlis and Emma Thompson

    Tonight Emily Maitlis speaks to actress Emma Thompson about arctic drilling, climate change and the refugee crisis in Europe. 

    Thompson's own son was adopted as a refugee from Rwanda. 

    That's 22.30 on BBC Two and afterwards on YouTube 

  65. Have we passed the peak era of globalisation?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    A woman working at a factory in China

    This weekend many of the world's top central bankers met in the picturesque setting of Jackson Hole in Wyoming to debate "inflation dynamics and monetary policy".

    Bank of England Governor Mark Carney was in attendance and his speech "Inflation in a globalised world" is well worth taking the time to read.

    Mr Carney's talk opened with a provocative question: "In this era of hyper-globalisation are central banks still masters of their domestic monetary destinies? Or have they become slaves to global factors?"

    Or, as a cynic might put it, does what the Bank of England decides to do with interest rates really matter? Or is the pace of inflation determined more by events overseas?

    Unsurprisingly, Mr Carney offered a forthright defence of the importance of the Bank of England.

    Keep reading on Duncan's blog

  66. Out of focus

    Reflections on last Friday's focus groups

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Producer

    View more on youtube

    A good chunk of my time over the past week has been filming and editing the Labour Leadership focus groups film that went out on Friday (which you can watch above). 

    It was clear, not least from looking at Twitter, that there were some Jeremy Corbyn supporters who were less than happy with what was said by the contributors. It's worth making a few observations having watched both sessions in their entirety and edited over three hours down to 14 minutes.

    • Ben Page and his team at Ipsos MORI did a great job in conducting the groups for us. Ben in particular very skillfully guided the contributors through a wide number of areas in a very fair way.
    • Nobody would claim that you can make sweeping judgements about how the entire country feels about Jeremy Corbyn based upon those two groups. That was not, thankfully, the purpose of the exercise. The purpose was to have an in depth discussion with former Labour voters in swing constituencies about what they thought about the Labour Party, the candidates on offer and the chances that any of them could bring them back to Labour. As the name suggests, "qualitative research" like this focuses on the quality and depth of people's views rather than trying to scientifically measure how prevalent they are.
    • The members of both groups were not "True Blue" Tories (all had previously voted for Labour and some voted for UKIP and the Lib Dems in 2015) and did not come with any discernible covert agenda. In fact, they were probably pretty typical of the wider electorate in that they were not familiar with the names of the leadership contenders, let alone the minutiae of the leadership contest.
    • It's true that some of them expressed positive views of Tony Blair, but this is hardly surprising when many of them had voted Labour when he was leader and, in some cases, stopped voting for Labour when he stood down. While it is undoubtedly true that Tony Blair's role in taking the country to war in 2003 alienated him from many voters, it should be pointed out that Labour did win the 2005 general election in the immediate aftermath of the war, post-"dodgy dossier" et al.  
    • There was no question of the panels being led towards a negative view of Jeremy Corbyn. Indeed, two of the most negative comments included in the film (Mr Corbyn being the "archetypal baddie" and him having "policies straight out of the sixties and is a bit of a hippy as well") came when Ben asked what people knew about the candidates, before they saw anything of Mr Corbyn.
    • Nor did we cherry-pick the negative comments at the expense of more positive remarks. If the point of the exercise had been to "rubbish" Mr Corbyn, there was more material that could have been included. For example, when the discussion came around to what Mr Corbyn stood for and the question of re-nationalisation came up, both groups reacted negatively: in some cases because, although they supported the policy, they were dubious about how much it would cost; in others because these were not deemed "bread and butter issues" and didn't affect them greatly. 
    • It is hard to see how the two clips that we played the groups of Mr Corbyn in action could be construed as leading them in one direction. The first was taken from what was by all accounts a barnstorming performance at a rally in Ealing, where Corbyn denounced "austerity" and the damage that it was causing. The second, from a Newsnight interview with Emily Maitlis, focused on the question of the Iraq war and Tony Blair's role in it. This is not an issue that Mr Corbyn has shied away from during the campaign: he told the Guardian that one of his first acts as Labour leader would be to apologise to the British public for the war.
    • A key comment in the Croydon group was from a woman who said: "I agree with most of what he said, I must admit, but I don’t think as a country we can afford his principles." This chimed with what other contributors said: namely, that they did not necessarily dissent from his diagnosis of the country's problems, but either doubted his ability to afford his solutions or thought that the wider electorate would not think him credible. Several said that he seemed to be very principled, but was more like a "social worker" than a leader and would turn Labour into a "pressure group". 

    Aside from the Corbyn question, there were some other interesting points that arose which didn't make the final cut for reasons of time:

    • Both groups, but particularly Nuneaton, were very exercised by immigration. We left in one reference to the fact that none of the candidates were talking about the issue, but it ran through the discussion like the lettering on a stick of Brighton Rock. In fairness, the leadership contenders have been talking about immigration on the stump, but, with the public's trust in politicians on the issue so low, coming up with a vote-winning policy will be a significant challenge for whoever ends up as leader.
    • Likewise, Labour's management of the economy came under sustained criticism, with several contributors saying that they wouldn't trust Labour again until they apologised for the "Great Recession". This is in the context of most people in the Labour Party (and certainly Team Corbyn) not believing that Labour were responsible.
    • Both groups were pretty scathing of Ed Miliband's performance as Labour leader. Some of the comments closely resembled Conservative attacks on him during the campaign: namely that he was "weak" and that you "couldn't imagine him standing up to Vladimir Putin".
    • As mentioned, there was praise for Tony Blair, but other politicians were also held up as positive examples. Nigel Farage, Barack Obama, Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon were all namechecked as leaders that some admired. Interestingly, the Croydon group also expressed disappointment that Chuka Umunna dropped out of the leadership contest.
    • A recurring theme was "safety". Some of the groups expressed concern that they didn't believe that voting Labour was "safe". One woman in Nuneaton put it even more strongly: she said that she felt "safer" under a Tory government.
    • None of the people were really tuned into politics at this time. The prevailing view was that an election had just happened and they would dip back into politics in a few years' time to see how Labour were doing. One contributor made a good point that, with David Cameron unlikely to fight the next election, they would have to look at the competing options come 2020 before making a definitive decision. This is a mixed blessing for Labour. It means that these swing voters, and surely others like them, are open to going back to Labour if the party can present themselves as a compelling alternative to the Tories by 2020. On the other hand, any apparent progress that the party makes under its new leader in the next few years could be illusory, in that voters simply will not be sufficiently engaged for us to say that it means that Labour are set fair to win in 2020. 
  67. NEWSNIGHTLIVE

    Wednesday 2 September 2015

  68. Cooper tops Corbyn in focus groups

    Yvette Cooper and Jeremy Corbyn

    Former Labour voters prefer leadership contender Yvette Cooper to frontrunner Jeremy Corbyn, a Newsnight/Ipsos Mori focus group suggests.

    In-depth discussion groups were held with voters aged 30-50 in the swing constituencies of Nuneaton and Croydon on 20 August and 26 August.

    All had previously voted Labour, but gone with a different party in 2015.

    Although small, focus groups often provide very accurate information due to their qualitative nature.

    The focus group results are in stark contrast to polls, which have suggested that Mr Corbyn is the clear frontrunner in the race for the Labour leadership.

    Keep reading here

  69. To hike or not to hike?

    The tricky choice facing the Fed

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen
    Image caption: No easy choices for central bankers or the Fed chair Janet Yellen

    After a volatile week for global markets, investors' eyes are turning to this weekend's meeting of top central bankers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. The Federal Reserve's annual symposium is always closely followed - but this one is seen as especially important.

    One of the three main questions facing the global economy that I posed this week, was: "When will the Federal Reserve begin to raise interest rates?" This week should provide some more clues.

    The worry is that the economic recovery in the US (and the UK) has been driven by ultra-low interest rates which have encouraged companies and households to borrow and helped support asset prices - leave that support in place too long and the Fed risks over-stimulating the economy and will, eventually, need to raise rates by more than it would otherwise to prevent overheating, financial instability and higher inflation.

    But withdraw the support too soon (as interest rate doves argue the European and Swedish central banks did) and the Fed will end up having to provide more support later and could snuff out the recovery.

    Keep reading on Duncan's blog

  70. George Monbiot skins and cooks a squirrel

    View more on youtube

    Yes, it really happened... environmentalist George Monbiot butchered a squirrel and ate it on air - together with presenter James O'Brien. The squirrel was accompanied by a fine Chianti. 

    "I want people to be aware of the realities of food production," said Monbiot who had earlier written about why he ate a roadkill squirrel

    You can watch the squirrel segment above. 

  71. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 28 August 2015

  72. Is the House of Lords too bloated?

    House of Lords

    The government has just announced 45 new members of the House of Lords - taking the total to 826 members. Critics say the Upper House is now ridiculously bloated - second in size only to China's National People's Congress. But what would the alternative be? We DEBATE tonight at 22.30 

  73. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 27 August 2015

  74. What can we learn from #CecilTheLion?

    View more on youtube

    Remember ‪#‎CecilTheLion‬? What can we learn from the way this story exploded? 

    Was it an example of social media democracy in action? Or evidence of social media distorting our sense of perspective? 

    Watch our debate with Brian May, Rosamund Urwin and Rosamund Urwin.

  75. Kids Company warned its closure could cause 'riots'

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Camila Batmanghelidjh at a protest in support of the charity shortly after its closure

    As central government, local authorities and charities pick up the pieces of Kids Company, the charity which collapsed insolvent in early August, new details are emerging of the discussions that preceded the Cabinet Office paying a controversial £3m grant to the charity in late July - just days before it closed its doors.

    BBC Newsnight and BuzzFeed News have learned of a document, emailed to civil servants in the name of Alan Yentob, chair of the charity's trustees, on 2 June. It warned that a sudden closure of the charity would mean a "high risk of arson attacks on government buildings".

    The document also warned of a high risk of "looting" and "rioting", and cautioned that the "communities" served by Kids Company could "descend into savagery". The document was written in language that civil servants across government described as "absurd", "hysterical" and "extraordinary".

    The document was the first part of the case made by Kids Company, which sought to help young people up to the age of 24, for the £3m grant. It was part of a proposal that the financially troubled charity should be restructured into a much smaller "child wellbeing hub", which could survive on a smaller income.

    Keep reading on Chris Cook's blog

  76. What next after China market woes?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Chinese person holds umbrella whilst walking past boards showing stock price falls

    It's been a rough August for investors. As has now been repeated ad nauseam, trillions of dollars have been wiped off global stock markets.

    And that's left many questioning the underlying health of the global economy and wondering what comes next.

    At heart, anyone grappling with this issue is really asking themselves three inter-related questions: how sharp is China's slowdown? What happens next to commodities? And when will the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates?

    The direction of China's stock market is very much a third order issue - despite all the attention over the last week.

    It matters little to investors outside China, as foreign ownership is still very limited - except perhaps as a gauge of sentiment.

    It matters only a little more to Chinese investors - who are still a tiny subset of the Chinese people.

    Its wild gyrations certainly don't tell us much about the underlying health of the Chinese economy.

    So on to the first real question - how sharply has China slowed? 

    Keep reading on Duncan's blog

  77. How is Labour weeding out its 'cheats'?

    James Clayton, Political Producer

    Labour Rose

    Labour is desperate to make sure they uncover as many non bona fide Labour supporters as possible. So far approximately 3,000 voters have been struck off. 

    But how are they doing it? If you’re an entrist who supports another party and you’ve signed up to vote this is how you’ll be caught.

    ·         Unusual name. This sounds odd but one of the main ways local Labour branches are checking you out is simply by "Googling" you. The odder your name the easier you are to find. One branch claimed they found Tory peer Benjamin Mancroft because “his name was unusual”. Equally, if you’re called Tom Smith, it’s pretty difficult to separate you out.

    ·         Email address linked to social media. Yup, local branches are going through your social media. To have signed up to vote you must have supplied your email address. People who have used the same email address on say, their Linked In profile, are likely to rumbled.  

    ·         More than one social media profile. Some branches are trying to "triangulate" using as much open source data as possible. If you have open Twitter, Facebook, Google Plus accounts etc... branches will be more confident in reporting you to Labour HQ.

    ·         Labour door knockers. Do you remember ever talking to a Labour party campaigner during the General Election? Or getting a phone call from Labour's phone bank? If you responded saying you’d vote anything other than Labour, the party could be onto you. Some local branches are looking at their own internal campaign returns – a system called "Contact Creator". They won’t report you for saying you’d vote for another party per se, but it will put a red flag by your name.

    ·         Views that don’t chime with the "values and aims of the Labour party". Actually although this is a reason for being disbarred, you’re extremely unlikely to be struck off for having fruity opinions on Facebook. Labour is terrified of legal challenge and the general nature of Labour’s own definition – set out in clause 4 – makes it hard to remove your vote on these grounds. A list of reasons given to me by Labour HQ for excluding registered voters include: not being on the electoral register, already being a member, having stood for another party and being a known member/campaigner of other party. Nothing in there about having contrary opinions. 

    And that’s about it. To register as a voter you had to provide so little information that if you have a generic name, you have closed social media profiles (or even better no online social media presence), the email you used is personal and you haven’t spoken to Labour canvassers it is very hard to prove you’re not a Labour supporter.

    The chances of weeding all of the entrists out, as Harriet Harman has suggested, is extraordinarily low. 

  78. How worried should we be about Chinese share price falls?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Woman in front of share price screens in China

    Chinese shares fell by almost 9% overnight, alongside another broad sell-off across Asia. Global stock markets suffered their worst week in years last week and, so far, Monday has provided no respite.

    The immediate catalyst for China's fall was the lack of a government policy response over the weekend. Investors - both Chinese and foreign - have come to believe that the Chinese government will support prices in the market, and so far they have been right.

    Previous sharp sell-offs have been met with a strong response by essentially banning large institutions from selling to interest rate cuts.

    The lack of a response could be taken as either a bad sign (that China is running out of policy tools to respond, potentially damaging the credibility of a government that has staked a lot of on its rising market) or as a good one (that the government's commitments to market reform are real and are going to stop trying to manipulate their market).

    Although either way, it's not good news for those who have bought Chinese equities which they thought were underpinned by a "Politburo Put".

    Keep reading on Duncan's blog

  79. The strategic choice facing every Labour leadership candidate

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    It's three weeks until we'll find out who's going to become the leader of the Labour party - and I thought it might be worth starting to reflect on the electoral challenge they'll face. Here's a diagram I made (all the squares are to scale):

    Squares showing size of electorate and various Labour groups

    The biggest square, the black one, represents everyone that voted in the last election.

    So far, the leadership candidates have had to appeal to the tiny little orange square - the Labour MPs - to get nominated.

    Since the nomination, they've been appealing to the next biggest square - people that can vote in the Labour leadership. 

    But that's when, numerically, it starts getting really tough.

    They have to reach out to and hold onto that much much larger, bright red square - the people that voted Labour in 2015.

    And then, beyond that, they have to pick up new voters. That's why I've included a dotted line to show what they'd have to do to get as many votes as the Conservatives last time around - which we can use as a very rough approximation of what scraping a majority might look like.

    That's why all the candidates are having to walk a strategic tight rope. 

    If you think that Labour leadership voters have different views from those bigger groups of people Labour needs, then there is a trade off between appealing to that electorate, and the broader ones they need to win the general election in 2020. 

    The strategic calculation for a candidate might be something like this. What is the minimal number of pronouncements that Labour leadership voters will like but the general electorate won't that I can get away with, and still win the Labour leadership election.

    Now Jeremy Corbyn seems to take the view that this number is pretty high - in fact, he'd probably entirely reject the premise that it's impossible to appeal to the wider electorate with very left wing policies, so there's no trade off.

    Liz Kendall appears to think this number is much lower - she has suggested that for Labour to appeal to the general electorate, it needs to take positions that might be seen as less left wing - or at least less comfortable for a left wing party to take.

    Burnham and Cooper seem to sit somewhere between the two.

    Who is right? There's no telling - but I think we'll start to get a pretty good idea once the polls settle down after the leader is elected on 12 September.

    ** A few sharp eyed psephologists on Twitter have noticed that I have defined "the electorate" as being all the people that voted in 2015 - rather than the total number of people eligible to vote. There's an implicit assumption here that turnout will remain closer to 60-70% than 100% at the next election. Of course, if you think 2020 will herald a sudden spike in turnout, you could redraw the a much bigger "electorate" square - and those Labour squares would look a lot smaller.

  80. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 24 August 2015

  81. The women fighters taking revenge against IS

    View more on youtube

    The ongoing war against IS in the Middle East is rarely out of the headlines. Less familiar however is the story of Yazidi women soldiers who have joined the banned Kurdistan Workers Party - or PKK - and its affiliates to take up arms against their persecutors. The BBC's Jiyar Gol has gained exclusive access to one of them to show us how the PKK women learn to fight.   

  82. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 20 August 2015

  83. Tough outlook for emerging markets

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Bank notes

    So, just to be clear, this is not a re-run of 1997. But that doesn't mean it isn't serious.

    In 1997 much of Asia fell into a severe financial crisis. Countries like Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea had become dependent on foreign credit, and when it dried up they were severely hit. Currencies crashed, economies tumbled, unemployment soared and there was serious talk of a global financial meltdown.

    The current situation is quantitatively different and rather than being a sudden episode of crisis, it feels like the culmination of some deeper structural changes in the world economy.

    Emerging market currencies have lost value against the dollar and currently stand at a six-and-a-half-year low in aggregate. The Financial Times today reports that almost $1tn of capital has flowed out of emerging economies in the last 13 months.

    Keep reading on Duncan's blog

  84. RIP to the UK's last deep pit coal mines

    Nicholas Jones
    Image caption: Nicholas Jones, who covered the miners' strike for the BBC, at Hatfield - one of the recently closed mines

    The UK's very last deep pit coal mine is about to close. The BBC's former labour and industrial correspondent, Nicholas Jones, reflects on the end of an era.

    Coal heated our homes, fuelled the industrial revolution, and over the centuries provided millions of jobs in coalfields across the UK, but soon deep mining will be no more, and a way of life is about to end.

    "It's absolutely heart-breaking," says Dave Douglass, a former pit delegate and secretary who has spent his life working at the recently-closed Hatfield pit near Doncaster.

    "The only way that a non-professional working class lad could earn a decent living, buy a house and get a decent car and holiday was by being a miner, and being a miner was a very proud thing to be."

    Read the full story

  85. When will interest rates go up?

    Pretty soon, it seems...

    View more on youtube

    When will interest rates start to go up? 

    "I think it's pretty soon," says economist David Miles, who sat on the Monetary Policy Committee for six years, and whose term has just ended. 

    He spoke to Evan Davis on Tuesday night's programme. Watch the interview above. There's lots more on our YouTube channel.  

  86. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 19 August 2015

  87. Three reasons why raising interest rates makes sense

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney
    Image caption: The Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney

    Inflation rose by just 0.1% in the last year and has been basically stagnant around zero percent for six months.

    Looking at the global economy, there are plenty of reasons to think that there are disinflationary forces at work that will keep headline inflation down - the oil price is flirting with a six-and-half-year low, China's economy is slowing and food prices continue to fall.

    And yet the Bank of England is increasingly signalling that interest rates will soon begin to rise. Given that its target is to get inflation to 2.0%, this has left many scratching their heads.

    There are three reasons why raising rates may make sense, even with inflation (temporarily?) stuck around zero.

    Read Duncan's blog for more

  88. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 18 August 2015

  89. Why most of the 'Stop Jeremy' schemes won't work

    It's complicated!

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Jeremy Corbyn

    Ballot papers are going out this morning for the Labour leadership contest after a weekend of various grandees apparently dreaming up new schemes to stop Jeremy Corbyn. Almost none of these will work. Why?

    Because, on current polling, it all comes down to whether you think the people voting for Andy Burnham or those voting for Yvette Cooper are more likely to put Corbyn as their next preference. And there is no decent publicly available evidence that either of them are. Furthermore, for similar reasons, there is no arithmetic reason why non Corbyn candidates withdrawing would do anything to stop Corbyn.

    Let me explain. 

    Voters in this election will be given the opportunity to rank the candidates in order of preference. The first preferences are counted up, and the person with the fewest is eliminated from the contest - and the votes they received are given to whoever each person that voted for them rated as their second preference. If after that none of the candidates has achieved 50% of the vote, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is eliminated and their votes are given to whoever they put as their higher preference amongst the two remaining candidates. By definition, this gives one of the two remaining candidates a majority of the votes.

    Current polling puts Corbyn first, Cooper and Burnham roughly tied in second, and Kendall trailing in third. So either Cooper or Burnham will most likely be the candidate that faces Corbyn in the final round. If you want to stop Corbyn, you'll be voting for some combination of Cooper, Burnham and Kendall as your first three preferences. So your vote WILL end up being for whoever faces Corbyn in the final round, WHICHEVER order you put those three in.

    The only way you can affect the number of votes Corbyn gets is by trying to second-guess the second preferences of people that vote for eliminated candidates. If you believe the polls, Kendall's almost certain to be eliminated first, so you can't affect that. But one of Burnham and Cooper won't be eliminated before the final run off with Corbyn. Whichever one is eliminated will have their preferences redistributed to either Corbyn or his opponent.

    T-shirt of a Corbyn supporter which says: "Hell yes, I'm voting Jez"

    So, in theory, if you, the "stop Corbyn" voter thought that, say, Burnham's supporters are more likely to have Corbyn as their next preference than Cooper's, you should put Burnham ahead of Cooper in your preference list even if you ACTUALLY prefer Cooper to Burnham - because it'll starve Corbyn of the extra votes he'd get if Burnham was knocked out.

    The thing is, I am not aware of any decent evidence that this is the case. We have very few polls on the Labour leadership election - and those that exist (necessarily) have small samples of what Burnham and Cooper's second preferences would be. Very roughly speaking, the polling tables I've seen suggest supporters of both split their second preferences about 30/70 between Corbyn and his opponent. So it's not clear which of these you should give a higher preference to tactically stop Corbyn anyway.

    In other words, there is no obvious way to tactically vote against Corbyn. If you want to stop him he'll be your last preference anyway - and it literally doesn't matter what order your first three preferences are in. Crazy thought though it might be, you can happily vote for candidates on the basis of, y'know, how good you think they are.

    A quick addendum on candidates dropping out

    This actually has implications for people dropping out of the race as well. Ballot papers have already gone out, but Cooper could, for example, tell all her supporters to first preference Andy Burnham instead. In terms of tactical voting, there is NO POINT in any of the three non Corbyn candidates doing this. All their votes will be aggregated to support whoever faces Corbyn in the final round anyway as a result of the preference system. 

    Of course, that's just on the arithmetic. There might be a case for candidates dropping out if they think that a unified anti-Corbyn campaign would be more effective at winning over existing Corbyn supporters - perhaps because they spend less time attacking each other. But this is necessarily pretty speculative, especially this late in the game.

  90. If Corbynmania is not the answer - what is?

    Tristram Hunt needs to know as badly as anyone in the Labour Party

    Alex Campbell

    Newsnight producer

    Tristram Hunt

    Shadow Education Secretary Tristram Hunt, due to be interviewed on Newsnight this evening, has been explicit in his opposition to Jeremy Corbyn’s surge toward the Labour leadership.

    In an impassioned 1,300-word letter to constituents in Stoke-on-Trent Central, Mr Hunt described a Corbyn victory as a “very real risk” to the party’s future and rebuked those supporters who consider it “unfashionable to aspire to government”.

    But could Labour’s shape in his own constituency offer clues about why the renegade candidate has surfaced as an unlikely frontrunner?

    Stoke-on-Trent Central has never returned anything other than a Labour MP. Mr Hunt, initially disdained by some local activists as a beneficiary of “parachuting” by central HQ, has continued this unwavering tradition with convincing wins at two general elections.

    Yet the picture is far murkier than his unhindered victories imply.

    Stoke-on-Trent Central was the only seat in the country where a majority of people did not vote in May. Labour has lost 14,000 voters there since 1997 and Tristram Hunt – while comfortably re-elected – was in fact mandated by a miserly 18.3% of eligible voters.

    The latest bloody nose to Labour is that the party has now implausibly lost its majority on a council which once had a Labour councillor in every single seat. The City Independents, an eclectic assembly of unaffiliated residents elected on a populist anti-cuts mandate, are leading an unlikely coalition with the Conservatives and UKIP.

    This is despite boundary reforms designed to improve council performance by providing “strong governance” and political stability – perceived locally as an opportunity for Labour to govern indefinitely and keep out insurgent parties such as the BNP.

    Clearly, history dictates that Mr Hunt’s constituents want to back Labour – and the collapse of the city’s traditional industries in steel, coal and the potteries have only strengthened this bond.

    But recent developments imply that, in a city whose voters see scant alternative to Labour, the enthusiasm for its message is waning dramatically.

    Mr Hunt is clear in his view that Jeremy Corbyn is not the answer. But given that his is the campaign noted most for spreading hope, passion and excitement amongst its supporters – how does Mr Hunt propose that the same enthusiasm is restored to the disaffected supporters in cities like the one he represents?

    Perhaps tonight we’ll find out.

    Tristram Hunt will be on the programme tonight at 22.30 on BBC Two. 

  91. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 17 August 2015

  92. Yvette Cooper on Newsnight

    It's a "battle for the soul of the party" she tells us

    Kirsty Wark interviewing Yvette Cooper

    TONIGHT. Kirsty Wark interviews Labour leadership contender Yvette Cooper. They discuss Corbyn mania, being a working mum and more. 

    The interview will be up after the programme on our YouTube channel

  93. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    13 August 2015

  94. Farkhunda: The making of a martyr

    View more on youtube

    On the programme last night, we reported on the heartbreaking story of Farkhunda - the Afghan woman who was falsely accused of burning the Koran, and beaten to death. 

    The film pulled together footage of the attack - and heard from her parents, women's rights activists in Afghanistan, and relatives of those accused of her murder.

    You can watch it again above.

    There's also an extended version of this report on Our World.     

    Credits: Reporter: Zarghuna Kargar, Camera: Elissa Mirzaei, Film Editor: Gordon Watt, Executive Producer: Kavita Puri, Kabul Producer: Maryam Maseh, Producer: Sara Afshar. 

  95. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 12 August

  96. Kids Company: Some questions for trustees

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    A child with Kids Company written on his cheeks
    Image caption: There are been a number of demonstrations in support of Kids Company

    As local authorities and charities have started helping people stranded by the closure of Kids Company, the big concern is still about how to provide support for young people who used the charity's services, particularly in its south London heartland. A police investigation involving the charity is, quietly, still interviewing former staff members and clients.

    In the medium term, though, attention must turn to the Kids Company's trustees, who have legal responsibilities for the charity. Chaired by Alan Yentob, the BBC broadcaster and creative director, the trustees clearly made strategic decisions that repay some examination.

    Read the full story on Chris Cook's blog

  97. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 11 August 2015

  98. 'I prayed - God, don't let me die'

    Our exclusive with stabbed teacher Vincent Uzomah

    View more on youtube

    A 14-year-old who stabbed a teacher and then bragged about it on Facebook has been given an 11-year sentence. The court in Bradford heard there was "clear evidence" the attack was racially motivated. Katie Razzall spoke exclusively to the teacher Vincent Uzomah, who says he has forgiven his attacker.   

  99. Lab leadership - results breakdown blackout

    So that's no detail on voter numbers of members, affiliated supporters or trade union affiliates when the winner is announced. That is going to surprise a lot of people. 

  100. UK dismisses Rwanda spy chief case

    The scene outside the Rwandan High Commission in London
    Image caption: The scene outside the Rwandan High Commission in London

    A UK court has rejected a bid to extradite Rwanda's spy chief to Spain to stand trial for his alleged role in massacres after the 1994 genocide.

    Karenzi Karake was on bail in the UK following his arrest in June on a warrant issued by Spain.

    His arrest strained diplomatic relations between the UK and Rwanda.

    A Spanish judge indicted Gen Karake in 2008 for alleged war crimes. The UK ruling has been welcomed by Rwanda's Justice Minister Johnston Busingye.

    Gen Karake had been the victim of "an unjust case", he said.

    Read more here and follow Newsnight's Gabriel Gatehouse and Ruaridh Arrow on Twitter for updates.

    Rwandan Lieutenant General Karenzi Karake at Nasho Military training school in Kirehe District, in Rwanda's Eastern Province, when he was still a major-general.
    Image caption: Karenzi Karake in 2010 when he was still a major general
  101. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 10 August 2015

  102. A day with a UKIP MEP on a mission in Calais

    UKIP MEP Mike Hookem believes British and French authorities aren't doing nearly enough to stop migrants from coming to the UK. We spent a day with him as he went about his fact-finding mission in Calais. Here are a few stills from the trip.

    Watch Jack Garland and James Clayton's report tonight at 22.30 on BBC Two, or afterwards on iPlayer (UK only)   

    UKIP MEP Mike Hookem climbs a security fence near the Eurostar railway to prove how easy it is to access the tracks
    Image caption: UKIP MEP Mike Hookem climbs a security fence near the Eurostar to show how easy it is
    Watch our report on Newsnight at 22.30 tonight. (for more images follow Jack Garland's Instagram account @jackwgarland)
    Image caption: He made it
    A French police officer threatens a migrant with pepper spray to stop him approaching lorries on a motorway
    Image caption: A police officer threatens a migrant with pepper spray
    A young man hides in a field near the Eurostar railway tracks
    Image caption: A young man hides in a field near the Eurostar railway tracks
    A slip road in between "the jungle" camp and a motorway
    Image caption: A slip road in between "the jungle" camp and a motorway
    Migrants run near a fence leading to the Eurostar railway tracks after being spotted by police
    Image caption: Migrants run near a fence leading to the Eurostar railway tracks after being spotted by police
    Woman rolls "sniper style" across a field near Eurostar railway tracks to avoid being seen by police
    Image caption: Woman rolls "sniper style" across a field near Eurostar railway tracks to avoid being seen by police
    This Eritrean migrant told UKIP MEP Mike Hookem that he'd tried and failed to enter the Channel Tunnel in a lorry, and now wanted to try and jump on a train to travel to the UK instead
    Image caption: This Eritrean migrant told Mike Hookem he'd tried and failed to enter the Channel Tunnel in a lorry, and now wanted to try and jump on a train to travel to the UK instead

    Watch Jack and James Clayton's report tonight at 22.30 on BBC Two, or afterwards on iPlayer (UK only)   

  103. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 7 August

  104. Prepping to meet the 'man of the moment'

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Jeremy Corybn

    On the train to Leeds my producer Ed Brown and I are putting together a list of questions for Jeremy Corbyn. As usual, we start to role-play the interview to work out how it would take shape. Then something funny happens. Ed stops. Looks puzzled and says "I've just worked out I can't imitate Corbyn's voice. I don't actually know what he'd say."

    It is a unique moment for a political producer. Usually, we can get the script word perfect. And the intonation to boot. How they start a sentence. And how they will avoid the question. It's to Corbyn's credit that we cannot - yet - second guess him. 

    Once the interview starts for real there are a couple of times I pull him up and tell him he's sounding like every other politician. The response is immediate - he ditches the crutch of a sound bite - and looks around for something less contrived.

    The result is sometimes quite earnest - and not always snappy. As you see from the quickfire questions we asked him for our YouTube channel, he even gets his favourite movie wrong. But they are, at least, believable.

    We've come a long way from Gordon Browns Arctic Monkeys. Long may it last.

    Emily's interview with Jeremy Corbyn will air on Newsnight tonight (Tuesday 4 August) at 22:30. There's also a quickfire version on our YouTube channel.  

  105. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 4 August

  106. Help for Parliamentary obsessives

    How to get over those Recess Blues

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    The Department for Culture, Media and Sport follow horse racing closely
    Image caption: The Department for Culture, Media and Sport follow horse racing closely

    The House of Commons Recess started on 21 July and finishes on 7 September. I'm sure, like me, you're wondering how you're going to muddle through the next month. If so, I come with help, a Parliamentary amuse bouche to see off those hunger pangs.

    While MPs are on their holidays (or working hard in their constituencies), poor officials are beavering away in Whitehall to answer the scores of written questions that were asked before Parliament adjourned. The answers are published on the Parliament website. Here are some of the highlights of what we've learned in the past week:

    It is a bit like a political anorak's Aladdin's Cave. Have a browse yourself. I'll post anything else interesting that catches my eye.

  107. Silly Season Quiz: The answers

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    For those of you waiting with bated breath for the answers to our Silly Season quiz, here they are:

    1.      Iraq invades Kuwait 1990

    2.      Marilyn Monroe dies 1962

    3.      Atomic bombs are dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki 1945

    4.      Richard Nixon resigns as President 1974

    5.      The Great Train Robbery happens 1963

    6.      The Manson Family kills Sharon Tate in Hollywood 1969

    7.      The border between West and East Berlin is closed 1961

    8.      The Cultural Revolution in China starts 1966

    9.      British troops are sent to Northern Ireland to restore order 1969

    10.   Elvis dies 1977

    11.   Bill Clinton admits an affair with Monica Lewinsky 1998

    12.   The Hungerford Massacre takes place 1987

    13.   The Prague Spring happens in Czechoslovakia 1968

    14.   Hard-line Communists attempt a coup against Gorbachev in USSR 1991

    15.   An IRA bomb kills Lord Mountbatten 1979

    16.   Martin Luther King delivers his "I have a dream" speech 1963

    17.   Princess Diana dies in a car crash in Paris 1997

    The answer to the bonus question of the sum total of all those years is 33559. Well done to @GreensladeR for being fastest on the buzzer.

  108. What does COBRA look like?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    No crisis is a true crisis unless it leads to a COBRA meeting and the Calais Migrant situation is no exception. There were several last week and another one today, chaired by the Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond. 

    There has long been a suspicion that COBRA (Cabinet Office Briefing Room A) has been at least as much about media management as crisis management, giving a clear impression of thrusting West Wing-style action rather than more prosaically telling the press and public that a group of politicians and officials met in an office in the Cabinet Office. 

    Disappointingly, there is apparently no truth in the old chestnut that the "Cabinet Office" initials were added to give a bit of glamour and avoid the Prime Minister's Official Spokesman giving a read out to assembled members of the Fifth Estate about the latest BRA meeting.

    Nonetheless, Meeting Room A must be one of the most secret-enshrouded rooms in British public life. We only have one photo of it, released as part of a Freedom of Information request in 2010.

    Cabinet Office Briefing Room A
    Image caption: Cabinet Office Briefing Room A

    That's quite a nice video wall, by 2010 standards. On the West Wing point, to demonstrate that British politics is essentially like a more mundane version of American politics, just have a look at how much fancier the White House Situation Room is. 

    White House Situation Room
  109. The Silly Season Quiz

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Screenshot from Doctor Who: The God Complex

    It's the first Monday in August: time to start a tally chart to monitor the progress of the Silly Season, a phenomenon so ingrained in British culture that it has its own entry in the Oxford English Dictionary.

    Quote Message: Silly Season: A period (typically in late summer and early autumn) when newspapers (and other media) often cover trivial material because of a lack of more important news. from Oxford English Dictionary
    Oxford English Dictionary

    The OED also gives citations for its earliest use. The first was from the satirical periodical The Saturday Review in July 1861: "We have, however, observed this year very strong symptoms of the Silly Season of 1861 setting in a month or two before its time." This implies that as a media trope it was already pretty tiresome.

    The second mention was in the Illustrated London News in 1884: "The ‘silly season’ having begun in real earnest, the newspapers are, as a necessary consequence, full of instructive and amusing matter." I'm not sure exactly how instructive many of today's efforts are. The Guardian did a rundown of some of the best Silly Season stories a few years ago: they include a giant carp, squirrels on crack and killer chimpmunks. Anyone who takes instruction from those obviously lead a more interesting (terrifying?) life than I do.

    Even Newsnight is not immune from a good silly season story on a tumbleweed-rich day in August. Last year saw seminal treatments of such pressing items as loom bands, the Great British Bake Off scandal, Buddleia and Yo, an app whose sole purpose is to message people with the word "Yo".

    In truth, last August was sorely lacking in levity: Ukraine was in crisis, ISIS was on the rise, Ferguson was in the grip of riots following the Michael Brown shooting, Ebola was rampant in West Africa. Not a lot of laughs there.

    So, perhaps the Silly Season is itself a creation of the media's overactive imagination. To illustrate my point, here is a Silly Season quiz for you. Below are 17 events from the past 70 years, all of which would have been worthy of a Newsnight Special on their own and all of which happened in August. The question is: in what year did each occur? 

    1. Iraq invades Kuwait
    2. Marilyn Monroe dies
    3. Atomic bombs are dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki
    4. Richard Nixon resigns as President
    5. The Great Train Robbery happens
    6. The Manson Family kills Sharon Tate in Hollywood
    7. The border between West and East Berlin is closed
    8. The Cultural Revolution in China starts
    9. British troops are sent to Northern Ireland to restore order
    10. Elvis dies
    11. Bill Clinton admits an affair with Monica Lewinsky
    12. The Hungerford Massacre takes place
    13. The Prague Spring happens in Czechoslovakia
    14. Hard-line Communists attempt a coup against Gorbachev in USSR
    15. An IRA bomb kills Lord Mountbatten
    16. Martin Luther King delivers his "I have a dream" speech
    17. Princess Diana dies in a car crash in Paris

    We'll post the answers at 3pm. The first person to tweet us @BBCNewsnight with the sum total of all of the years will get a special mention.

  110. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 3 August

  111. A Corbyn shadow cabinet?

    Corbyn key backers have rebelled 1254 times

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    If you believe the polls (and who does these days?) then the left-winger Jeremy Corbyn is heading for a barnstorming win.

    If that proves correct what happens in the days afterwards? Well one of the first tasks for any new leader is to assemble a shadow cabinet, a prospective alternative government. He has around 15-20 positions to fill.

    The problem for Corbyn would be, which Labour bums (so to speak) would sit around that top table? Many current members have already said they could not countenance being included, including Yvette Cooper, Liz Kendall, Tristram Hunt and Chuka Umunna. Corbyn has indicated he'd like to bring back shadow cabinet elections (abolished under Ed Miliband).

    Presumably favoured candidates might include those who nominated him (for real, rather than those who did so for the rather nebulous cause of "widening the debate". 

    In that case we might expect the following to stand or find preference from the new leader. It would be a first for almost all of them. In the past, many of them haven't found too much favour with previous leaderships, indeed together since 1997 they've rebelled against the party some 1,254 times. If you include Corbyn's own rebellions that number would rise to nearly 1,800.

    Given that, it's hard to see how he or any of them might easily expect the loyalty of their fellow MPs in any Corbyn led Parliamentary Labour Party meeting.

    1.) Diane Abbott, Hackney North and Stoke Newington MP since 1987, rebelled against whip 187 times: One of the only familiar faces among the Corbyn backers. She had said she didn't expect him to win. Only problem is, she's standing for the London mayoralty too.

    Diane Abbott

    2.) John McDonell, MP for Hayes and Harlington since 1997, rebelled against the party whip 539 times: An ideological soul mate with Mr Corbyn, he's best known for trying to stand against Gordon Brown for the leadership in 1997, only to find he couldn't garner enough support from colleagues to mount a challenge. He's the chair of the Socialist Campaign Group.

    John McDonell

    3.) Clive Lewis, MP for Norwich South since 2015: A newby to Parliament. Mr. Lewis was a BBC News reporter for a decade (surely counts against him). He describes himself as a "proud socialist" and is against nuclear weapons. Hitherto he is most noted for an incident on the campaign trail where he said he was bound to win his seat lest he was "caught with [his] pants down behind a goat with Ed Miliband at the other end". A cheery image.

    Clive Lewis

    4.) Kelvin Hopkins, MP for Luton North since 1997, rebelled against the whip 358 times: Like Mr Corbyn Mr Hopkins is known for his rebellious skirmishes with the whips. Before entering parliament, he worked for the trade union movement all of his career.

    Kelvin Hopkins

    5.) Michael Meacher, MP for Oldham West and Royton since 1970, rebelled against party whip 51 times: The joint-longest serving Member of Parliament, Mr Meacher is a veteran of the PLP and left-wing causes. Uniquely among the genuine Corbyn backers, he was a minister in the Blair administration, serving as environment minister from 1997-2003.

    Michael Meacher

    6.) Richard Burgon, MP for Leeds East since 2015: One of the most fervent Corbyn-backers, Burgon is being tipped as something of a new left-wing firebrand in the party.  A trade union lawyer before his election to parliament, he has called for the abolition of the monarchy. Before taking his oath of office he said: "As someone that believes that the head of state should be elected I make this oath in order to serve my constituents". Not to be confused with the long-standing MP for Birmingham Northfield, Richard Burden. Think of the post-bag confusion.

    Richard Burgon

    7.) Grahame Morris, MP for Easington since 2010, rebelled against the whip 11 times: A former parliamentary researcher to the erstwhile MP for Easington. He was a signatory of an open letter from Labour MPs lobbying former leader Ed Miliband to take rail and energy companies back into public ownership and reverse austerity measures. He is the chair of the All-Party Friends of Palestine group and voted against renewal of Britain's nuclear weapons.

    Grahame Morris

    8.) Jon Trickett, MP for Hemsworth since 1996, has voted against his party whip 68 times: One of Corbyn's key backers and unusually a shadow cabinet minister under Miliband. Was the secretary of the out campaign in the 1975 Common Market referendum.  For many years he was a member of the far-left ILP. 

    Jon Trickett

    9.) Dennis Skinner, Beast of Bolsover since 1970: Requires no introduction. Rebelled against the whip 286 times.

    Dennis Skinner

    10.) Ronnie Campbell, MP for Blythe Valley since 1997, rebelled against the whip 123 times: A recognisable geordie in the Commons, he switched his support from Andy Burnham to Corbyn saying the latter was the only "true socialist" in the contest. A former coal miner, during the miners strike he was arrested twice. 

    Ronnie Campbell

    11.) Kate Osamor, MP for Edmonton since 2015: A newcomer to the Commons, she has said that under Corbyn women will be taken seriously in the party. 

    Kate Osamor

    12.) Imran Hussain, MP for Bradford East since 2015: Wrested this seat from the clutches of  the Lib Dems,  Hussain was previously Deputy Leader of Bradford City Council. 

    Imran Hussain
  112. New Labour, New Oblivion

    Or perhaps not

    Alex Campbell

    Newsnight producer

    Jeremy Corbyn

    A dip into the archives can be enlightening.

    Tony Blair’s intervention in the Labour leadership race, for instance, provided an absorbing opportunity to recap the party's seemingly perennial Left-Right tug-of-war.

    Comments from both Blair and Jeremy Corbyn read like a BuzzFeed quiz: “1990s or Now.”

    “Labour lost the election because it failed to offer people an alternative vision of society and a coherent programme for implementing it. In the end, people simply did not know what, if anything, Labour stood for."

    (Jeremy Corbyn, 1992)

    "I think our problem as a party is we weren't offering a clear enough alternative to the Conservatives… did we lose the last election because we were too left wing, or because we were offering an austerity-lite agenda?"

    (Jeremy Corbyn, 2015)

    “I am a politician, not a psychiatrist. But if people seriously think that by going back to where we were … we are going to win power … they require not leadership, but therapy.”

    (Tony Blair, 1995)

    “This is why when people say, my heart says 'I should really be with that politics', well get a transplant - because that's just done.”

    (Tony Blair, 2015)

    “These are the issues that should be aired in the current leadership contest. The last thing Labour Party supporters need now is a stitch-up orchestrated by the chattering classes - who proved themselves so utterly out of touch with public opinion in the recent election.”

    (Jeremy Corbyn, 1992)

    “Our party must become a social movement again. It was founded to stand up to injustice, and too often we have lost our way, ignored our supporters or been cowed by powerful commercial interests and the press."

    (Jeremy Corbyn, 2015)

    “Of course it means changes…it calls for a new politics. It is time to break out of the past and break through with a clear, radical and modern vision for Britain.”

    (Tony Blair, 1994)

    “We can win again. We can win again next time. But only if our comfort zone is the future and our values are our guide and not our distraction.”

    (Tony Blair, 2015)

    What is perhaps even more striking than any wry commentary on the Labour Party’s identity debate, and in complete contradiction to the fossilised Blair-Corbyn debate, is the reminder archives provide us that politics is remarkably fickle.

    The language surrounding Labour’s election defeat and leadership race has been classically thespian; veering from the greatest crisis ever to oblivion.

    Maybe they’re right this time. Who knows?

    Either way, we’ve been here before.

    An electronic trawl through UK news publications since 1984 for the terms “Labour Party” and “in turmoil” returns a staggering 21,900 stories.

    Despite the arguably right-leaning bent of the UK's printed press, it isn’t much more edifying for the Conservative Party. It has 13,225 hits for its own turmoil over the same time period.

    As for “electoral oblivion”, in 30 years the Labour Party has been connected with that 4,025 times.

    It’s 2,400 for the Tories – warned of oblivion from within their own ranks by Malcolm Rifkind in 1998, former chairman Michael Ancram in 2001 and Francis Maude in 2012.

    You may have noticed that they controlled the last government then stormed the election.

    Of course, this is not science. But as emotional debate rages about the future of Labour and the left, it might just be worth noting that this is not the first political apocalypse. And I’d wager it won’t be the last.

  113. Michael Mansfield on 'the silence of suicide'

    View more on youtube

    On the programme QC Michael Mansfield spoke very movingly about his daughter who took her own life in May. In the UK about 6,000 people make that decision every year. On Friday, there's an event called "The Silence of Suicide" which aims to help break the taboo over discussing it. You can find the details here

  114. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 30 July

  115. Some hard facts for the Labour Party

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Front pages of newspapers the day before the 2015 election
    Image caption: Sun and Mail readers was just one demographic where Labour fell short

    After Labour lost in May, the familiar cry went up from across party that the party had to "learn the lessons" from the defeat. On Tuesday, Andy Burnham made a speech on creating a National Health and Care Service. One of the reasons he gave for introducing the policy was that he believes "it would help win more than just the 26% of over-65s who voted Labour at the election".

    There has been plenty of data in the public domain to help Labour since then, but those who want the Cheat's Guide to Why Labour Lost could do a lot worse than look at this paper produced by the House of Commons Library.

    Here are some of the grisly highlights if you're of a Labour persuasion:

    • On Mr Burnham's point, it's not just that so few over-65s voted Labour (the research paper says it was 23%, incidentally), it's that there was an 8 point drop on what they got in 2010
    • Many of the demographics in which Labour did well are ones that also have much lower than average turnout. So, Labour won 18-25 year-olds (turnout 23% below average), DE voters (turnout 9% below average), social renters (turnout 10% below average), private renters (turnout 15% below average) and BME voters (turnout 10% below average)
    • The flip side of that, which compounded the problem, is that the Tories decisively won those groups that had higher turnout (older people, professionals and those who own their houses or have a mortgage)
    • Despite the Coalition Government cutting public sector jobs by 400,000 between 2010 and 2015, Labour only won the public sector vote by 3 points. They lost the private sector vote by 17 points.
    • On the face of it, Labour did not do too badly with some newspaper readers, but if you look at the circulation of those papers, you can see that four of the top five all broke decisively for the Tories.
    Table showing circulations of newspapers and how readers voted

    Facts like these set out the dilemma that is torturing Labour thinkers at the moment. Is the way to win to strike a clear divide from the Conservatives on issues like austerity and wealth creation in the hope that you will energise those groups who already support Labour but in insufficient numbers? The risk of that is that you further alienate those professional, middle class voters who have already drifted away from Labour. Or do you seek to win back Tory voters with a pitch to the centre? The risk there is that you risk totally turning off those voters who look to Labour for a real alternative and might desert the party if all they see is a Tory-lite option.

    As a problem, it's actually pretty straightforward. Whatever your view on the answer, there is no question that, as it stands, the demographics are moving very much against the Labour Party. 

  116. Tim Farron cooks a store cupboard supper

    Who is in the new Lib Dem leader's team?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Tim Farron

    We're all familiar with the store cupboard supper. You come home from work, rummage through the fridge and find nothing that even remotely resembles a square meal. So, you do your best and end up with some hideous culinary chimera that doesn't really work.

    In political terms, that was the situation facing new Lib Dem leader Tim Farron in assembling his team of spokespeople. We would usually call it his "frontbench team" but this would be a bit of a misnomer for reasons that will become clear.

    The GoodFood storecupboard suppers book

    It was never that easy a job for previous Lib Dem leaders to fill all the necessary "Shadow" posts, even when their total of MPs was safely in double digits. Now, with just seven other MPs, not including Mr Farron, it has become almost an exercise in self-selection. This was exacerbated by the decision of Nick Clegg not to accept a front bench job. So, then there were six.

    So, how has he managed? Firstly, by glossing over the inconvenience of having so few MPs and appointing people who are not MPs. Two defeated MPs (Lorely Burt and Lynne Featherstone) are given jobs. Prominent Lib Dem local government representatives are given jobs. Finally, and most understandably, Lib Dem Peers pick up most of the slack.

    This will create a few logistical difficulties for the party. How, for example, will those who are not in Parliament represent Lib Dem views? One simple solution would be that those people will be nominated as Lib Dem peers. How, also, will the party get a hearing in the Commons in those portfolios where their spokesperson is in the Lords. This is particularly the case for a huge area like the economy, on which Baroness Kramer will speak. The likely solution is that Mr Farron himself will seize any high profile issues for himself.

    Two final points. The defeated leadership contender Norman Lamb is not moved from his health brief. Mr Lamb has great expertise in that area, so in some ways it makes sense. But one would normally think that a defeated rival would be strongly in the running for the economy job. This could suggest that Mr Farron and Mr Lamb do not necessarily see eye to eye on the best way to position the party for the future.

    And what is the deal with Ceredigion MP Mark Williams? He is the only one of the Lib Dem MPs apart from Mr Clegg not to have a job. The Lib Dems say that he will have a campaigning role that will focus on specific issues such as the Human Rights Act. Disappointingly, this means that there is hardly any potential for us to talk about Mr Farron having a backbench rebellion, unless Nick Clegg decides to make things difficult for his successor.

    The full list is as follows:

    • Leader: Tim Farron MP
    • Economics: Baroness Susan Kramer
    • Foreign Affairs/Chief Whip/Leader of the house: Tom Brake MP
    • Defence: Baroness Judith Jolly
    • Home Affairs: Alistair Carmichael MP
    • Health: Norman Lamb MP
    • Education: John Pugh MP
    • Work and Pensions: Baroness Zahida Manzoor
    • Business: Lorely Burt
    • Energy and Climate Change: Lynne Featherstone
    • Local Government: Mayor of Watford, Cllr Dorothy Thornhill
    • Transport: Baroness Jenny Randerson
    • Environment and Rural Affairs: Baroness Kate Parminter
    • International Development: Baroness Lindsay Northover
    • Culture Media and Sport: Baroness Jane Bonham-Carter
    • Equalities: Baroness Meral Hussein-Ece
    • Justice/Attorney General: Lord Jonathan Marks
    • Northern Ireland: Lord John Alderdice
    • Scotland: Willie Rennie MSP, Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats
    • Wales: Kirsty Williams AM, Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats
    • Campaigns Chair: Greg Mulholland MP
    • Grassroots Campaigns: Cllr Tim Pickstone, Chief Executive of the Association of Liberal Democrat Councillors
  117. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 29 July

  118. A mythical suicide note?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Former Labour Leader Michael Foot led the party to defeat in 1983
    Image caption: Former Labour Leader Michael Foot led the party to defeat in 1983

    Much of the debate about Labour over the past week has focused on whether the party has "gone back to 1983", with the clear sense in most cases that this would be an undesirable destination.

    Not everyone feels that way. John Wight has written a thought-provoking piece on The Huffington Post entitled "It Is Time to Dispel the Myth That Labour's '83 Manifesto Was Too Left Wing."

    Needless to say, the article has raised the eyebrows and scorn of a number of commentators.

    But, given the waxing star of Jeremy Corbyn in the contest, this argument merits further examination. I would say there are two points to look at: firstly, was the manifesto the kind of "beyond the pale" nonsense that deserved the Gerald Kaufman jibe of "the longest suicide note in history" and, secondly, could a similar prospectus ever win an election?

    On the first point, it is certainly true that some of the ideas in it were ahead of their time. So, there are proposals for a minimum wage, to spend 0.7% of GDP on development aid, to increase the personal tax allowance, to eliminate lead in petrol and so on. Their proposed Equal Pay Act presaged the current blazing debate about income inequality. You could also argue that Labour's insistence that the country needed to pull out of the EU (EEC at that point) to deal properly with Britain's problems was also prescient of the eurosceptic surge of the past decade. Their economic policy (borrowing to invest) seems to be quite a tough sell at the moment but would not exactly be regarded as loony by many  respectable economists. 

    So why does the manifesto have such a bad reputation? I think in many cases it was not the policies themselves, it was the ghosts that floated around the party at the time. On the economy you had the ghost of the country being bailed out by the IMF in 1976; on the unions, you had the ghost of the Winter of Discontent in 1978; on security, you had the threat of a Soviet nuclear strike on the UK. 

    Looking back on past manifestos is an exercise in sterility, where you can read the policies but miss any sense of the emotional resonance that they had for voters at the time. For many of these in 1983, Labour represented a risk that they were not prepared to take. The entire process of modernisation started by Neil Kinnock and finished by Tony Blair was all about exorcising these ghosts.

    On the additional question, John Wight sets out two reasons why he believes that Labour lost the 1983 election:

     - "The bounce in personal popularity enjoyed by Margaret Thatcher in the aftermath of the Faklands War the previous year"

     - "The split in Labour's vote by the breakaway SDP faction" 

    On the first point, you could argue it was not just that Mrs Thatcher found popularity post-Falkands: it was that people contrasted the strong Tory rhetoric on defence with the unilateralist nuclear policy of Labour. On the second, it seems that the danger is to confuse cause and effect. A counter-argument would be that senior Labour people left the party because they were so disillusioned with what they saw as Labour's leftward journey to unelectability.   

    The wider point raised by the article is whether elections are actually won in the centre ground of politics. The period of so-called "Butskellism" that ran from the 1950s to the mid-1970s established a system where Labour and Tory exchanged power with very few major points of distinction (this is disputed on both sides). Mrs Thatcher ended that, winning elections by eschewing any courting of the centre ground as a fruitless compromise with your opponents. Tony Blair revived it from the mid-1990s and won two landslides.

    That's the question for Labour: do they want to find their own Margaret Thatcher, a leader who will stick it to their opponents without fear? Or do they want someone who, like Blair, seeks to understand why people voted for their opponents and win them over.   

  119. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 28 July

  120. On Newsnight tonight: Rafael Behr on the Corbyn phenomenon

    Jeremy Corbyn

    When Jeremy Corbyn first declared his candidacy for the Labour leadership, most of his colleagues in parliament saw him as the token candidate of the perpetually rebellious left. He needed charitable nominations just to get on the ballot paper. The limit of his ambition was meant to be a respectable last place out of four.

    None expected him to emerge as a serious contender - the front-runner according to one opinion poll. (Although who believes those, these days?) But something extraordinary is certainly happening on the British left. Corbyn seems to be harnessing great stores of pent up energy from a generation that rejects not just the politics of the New Labour era but the whole style and idiom of pragmatic, centrist compromise. 

    Activists forming this pro-Corbyn surge look to elements of the "Yes" campaign in last year's Socttish independence referendum and at anti-austerity parties in Greece and Spain - Syriza and Podemos. They look at the emergence of Bernie Sanders as a more radical left rival to Hilary Clinton for the Democratic party nomination ahead of US presidential elections. They see themselves as part of a global anti-austerity, anti-capitalist re-awakening. Thanks to new rules introduced under Ed Miliband, these Corbynites can buy a vote in Labour's leadership election for three pounds a time. With some help from large trade union campaign machinery the whole political complexion of the party seems to be shifting sharply left. 

    The other candidates are worried. MPs who still think general elections are won by appealing to swing voters are veering between despair and panic. On Newsnight tonight we take a look at the Corbyn phenomenon. We speak to his supporters and to one shadow cabinet minister who warns of the potential chaos in the parliamentary party that his victory would unleash. And we consider the question of whether Corbyn is really just the lucky beneficiary of a force that was ready to erupt before there was even a vacancy at the top of the party. Does the romantic idea that some Corbynites have of their candidate match the reality of the man himself?   

  121. Turkey: The erratic ally

    Mark Urban

    Newsnight Defence and Diplomatic Editor

    A Turkish soldier checks cars at a checkpoint in Diyarbakir on July 26, 2015 following the death of two Turkish soldiers

    If you're sitting in the Pentagon or State Department there's good news and bad news. The good news is that Turkey is embracing the struggle against the Islamic State group with a vigour it has never shown before; bombing them; allowing US aircraft to use Turkish air bases for the same purpose; arresting hundreds of suspects in Turkey, and tightening security on the Syrian border. The bad news is that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also taking the opportunity for an onslaught on a long-standing enemy of Turkey's, the PKK Kurdish extremist group. 

    So keen are the Americans to disabuse people in the region that they've given any sort of green light for this attack on the Kurds that a senior official, Brett McGurk, tweeted an unusually blunt message pointing out, "There is no connection between these airstrikes against PKK and recent understandings to intensify US-Turkey cooperation." With Turkey's call for discussions at Nato on Tuesday, its allies are nervous that it could link its actions against IS and the PKK in ways that they would rather avoid.

    For the Americans, strikes against Kurdish armed groups in Iraq and Syria are highly unwelcome because these troops are one of the few reliable partners they have on the ground in the struggle against IS. To the Turks, the so-called Caliphate of IS and the PKK are two sides of the same coin - terrorist movements that endanger their security while exploiting the power vacuum in northern Syria and Iraq.

    Mr Erdogan apparently calculates that hitting the PKK, against which Turkey fought a long and bitter insurgency, will not overly endanger his relations with the US, a two-year-old ceasefire with the Kurdish group, or shatter the peace of south-east Turkey more generally. He tested the waters last October with air strikes against PKK bases inside Turkey, which despite some angry rhetoric and Kurdish street protests did not reignite a full blown insurgency. 

    His actions exploit the fact that Kurdish politics is very factional, with many Turkish Kurds rejecting the Marxist-hued politics and violence of the PKK. Furthermore Mr Erdogan has built good relations with the Kurdish factions in northern Iraq that have not so far been endangered by military action against the PKK. 

    Syria presents a trickier conundrum, because the PKK is closely linked to the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which, backed by coalition air power, successfully fought off IS in Kobane and has expanded the area under its control. The YPG is another Marxist group closely aligned with the PKK.

    For Nato ambassadors meeting tomorrow, the risk therefore is backing anything that might lead to a new conflict in south-east Turkey or endanger recent gains by anti-IS forces in northern Syria. At the same time, they must acknowledge both the importance of Turkish cooperation against IS and its right to self-defence against groups, including the PKK, that might bring terror to its streets.

    These calculations could become even more fraught if Turkish troops enter Syria to create a buffer zone. Mr Erdogan has been toying this idea for the past two years - seeing it as a way to fill a power vacuum, thwart the Kurds, and give a serious blow to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Now there are reports suggesting that the US has agreed to a limited buffer zone.

    If Turkish armour does indeed roll across the Syrian frontier, President Erdogan's gamble will be that the US and Nato have little choice but to back him. The consequences in terms of the fractured politics of Kurdish nationalism and the Syrian opposition would though be far harder to predict.              

  122. How do you sack a Lord?

    50 Ways to Leave your Legislature

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    House of Lords chamber

    The allegations against Lord Sewel have led to many people asking whether it is possible to "sack" a peer who is deemed guilty of misconduct, either in the court of law or in the court of public opinion. The answer reminds me of that of Reverend Lovejoy in the Simpsons.

    It may surprise you to know that, until 2014, there was an extremely limited process for disqualifying a peer and no process at all for peer to resign voluntarily.

    Up until then, as this House of Commons Library note sets out, you would leave the House of Lords if:

    • You were a septuagenarian Bishop who was not a life peer. They are required to retire from their see at 70
    • You successfully applied to the Clerk of the Parliaments for a leave of absence for the rest of the Parliament
    • You were declared bankrupt under the Insolvency Act 1986. Once your period of bankruptcy finished, you could resume sitting and voting 
    • You were convicted of treason under the Forfeiture Act 1870 until you had either gone through your term of imprisonment or received a pardon 

    Otherwise, there would need to be a specific Act of Parliament. There was one in 1917 to "sack" two peers for supporting "the King's enemies" during World War One, while Tony Blair's House of Lords Act in 1999 ousted all but 92 of the hereditary peers.

    Progress was made in 2014 through the House of Lords Reform Act, which set out some additional exit paths. A peer could now:

    • Voluntarily resign
    • Be removed if he or she didn't not attend the Lords at all during a session
    • Be sacked if convicted of a "serious offence", defined as a sentence of more that one year

    A final development came through the House of Lords (Expulsion and Suspension) Act 2015. This short Act allows a Standing Order of the Lords to be introduced to allow for anyone to be suspended or expelled from the Lords via a resolution of the House. A Standing Order is merely one of the basic rules that determines how Parliament operates.

    The Standing Order to this effect was passed by the Lords on 16 July 2015. The House of Lords Committee on Privileges and Conduct (whose Chairman is, as chance would have it, Lord Sewel) published a report only a couple of weeks ago which set out a draft Standing Order. 

    Through this, the process would be:

    • A suspension or expulsion "must follow a recommendation from the Committee for Privileges and Conduct that the member be expelled or suspended (as the case may be) because the member has breached the Code of Conduct"
    • "Such a recommendation may be made by the Committee for Privileges and Conduct only if the Commissioner for Standards has found the member in breach of the Code of Conduct or the member is in breach of the Code in accordance with paragraph 16 or 17 of the Code"

    It's worth noting that those paragraphs of the Code of Conduct only apply to convictions and not to any general poor behaviour.

    The clear concern for a layperson looking at that is that the process seems to rest on a judgement behind close doors by a Commissioner and a Committee. Peers do not, to state the obvious, have an electorate to answer to. They are, nonetheless, lawmakers. Whatever happens to Lord Sewel, one of the central consequences of this affair might be demands for increased public accountability for the inhabitants of the red benches.

    Correction: A previous version of this story stated that the Standing Order had not, to the author's knowledge, been passed. It was on 16 July 2015. 

  123. Firms are almost 'eating themselves': Andy Haldane

    The Bank of England's chief economist, Andy Haldane is widely regarded as a free thinker and an internationally influential central banker. He's been speaking to our Economics correspondent Duncan Weldon - and he had some tough words for British businesses. In case you missed it, here's the interview. You can watch more on our YouTube channel .

    View more on youtube
  124. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 27 July

  125. In the psychiatrist's e-chair

    What can a supercomputer tell us about the Labour leadership rivals?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    The IMB supercomputer

    I've discovered a tool which should definitely be filed under "Just a bit of fun" (©Peter Snow). It comes courtesy of the IBM Watson supercomputer and is called "Personality Insights". Essentially, what you do is to input a decent chunk of prose from a single person and it comes up with a brief personality profile of that person. 

    In search of some suitable victims to try this out on, I alighted upon the four contenders to be Labour leader. Here is the supercomputer's verdict (all inaccuracies should be directed to IBM...).

    Liz Kendall (based upon her speech on devolution):

    "You are genial and helpful.

    You are empathetic: you feel what others feel and are compassionate towards them. You are self-controlled: you have control over your desires, which are not particularly intense. And you are altruistic: you feel fulfilled when helping others, and will go out of your way to do so.

    Your choices are driven by a desire for connectedness.

    You are relatively unconcerned with tradition: you care more about making your own path than following what others have done. You consider helping others to guide a large part of what you do: you think it is important to take care of the people around you."

    Jeremy Corbyn (based on his speech on the economy):

    "You are shrewd, skeptical and tranquil.

    You are philosophical: you are open to and intrigued by new ideas and love to explore them. You are imaginative: you have a wild imagination. And you are independent: you have a strong desire to have time to yourself.

    Your choices are driven by a desire for prestige.

    You are relatively unconcerned with both tradition and taking pleasure in life. You care more about making your own path than following what others have done. And you prefer activities with a purpose greater than just personal enjoyment."

    Yvette Cooper (based on her article on welfare reform):

    "You are shrewd, skeptical and can be perceived as indirect.

    You are empathetic: you feel what others feel and are compassionate towards them. You are philosophical: you are open to and intrigued by new ideas and love to explore them. And you are energetic: you enjoy a fast-paced, busy schedule with many activities.

    Your choices are driven by a desire for connectedness.

    You are relatively unconcerned with taking pleasure in life: you prefer activities with a purpose greater than just personal enjoyment. You consider helping others to guide a large part of what you do: you think it is important to take care of the people around you."

    Andy Burnham (based on his speech on the economy):

    "You are inner-directed, skeptical and strict.

    You are philosophical: you are open to and intrigued by new ideas and love to explore them. You are independent: you have a strong desire to have time to yourself. And you are empathetic: you feel what others feel and are compassionate towards them.

    Your choices are driven by a desire for prestige.

    You are relatively unconcerned with both taking pleasure in life and tradition. You prefer activities with a purpose greater than just personal enjoyment. And you care more about making your own path than following what others have done."

    A lot of common ground there, giving hope to those who are hoping for a harmonious denouement to the contest. 

    Try it yourself here.

  126. Watergate, elastic, Gershwin and the Labour Party

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Richard Nixon following his resignation because of the Watergate scandal
    Image caption: Richard Nixon following his resignation because of the Watergate scandal

    The past few days in the wake of what we should probably now just call "The Poll" have seen a variety of doom-mongering predictions about the Labour Party's future. On Wednesday you had Tony Blair saying that the party could be out of power for 20 years if Jeremy Corbyn won, top donor John Mills warned about turning off the cash supply and others have predicted a possible SDP-esque breakaway by Labour centrists.

    What hope is there at the moment if you're a gloomy Labour supporter (not all are, by the way, particularly those energised by Mr Corbyn's message of anti-austerity)? Here's one crumb of comfort that I encountered listening to Slate Magazine's Whistlestop podcast presented by John Dickerson (well worth a listen for fans of US presidential politics). In the latest episode, Dickerson is actually talking about the turmoil within the Democrat party in 1978 as Jimmy Carter floundered, but he referred to the situation faced by the Republican Party just two years previous in the toxic aftermath of Watergate. He says:

    "The Democrats are having a restless self-examination in December of 1978. You’ll remember in the 1976 Ford-Reagan fight, the huge debate in the Republican Party was how the party after being in such horrible straits could repair itself. Remember 'Republicans are people too', the ad campaign from the Republican National Committee. Just two years later the Democrat party are having their own soul-searching moment which reminds us of something we should always be reminded of, which is that things can change very quickly in politics. And usually the moment that you declare the death of a party is the moment you should ‘buy, buy, buy’ into the stock of that party."

    On that basis, should those of you of a betting sensibility out there be putting the house on a Labour victory in 2020? The cheery lesson closer to home for the Labour Party is that similar warnings of imminent obsolescence were voiced following their defeat in 1992. Five years later, they were celebrating a landslide victory. 

    But let's talk about elastic. Sir John Major has talked about a conversation he had with Chris Patten following that 1992 victory:

    "The day after the 1992 general election, Chris Patten (the Conservative chairman) and I sat in the White Room at Number 10. Chris had lost his seat at Bath. And we agreed that in winning a fourth successive term, we had stretched the democratic elastic as far as it would go, and unless Labour collapsed, we would have little chance of winning the next election."  

    Two points: firstly, the Tories have only just won their first election victory since 1992, so it is questionable as to how taut the democratic elastic is in Labour' favour. Secondly, the important Major-Patten caveat was "unless Labour collapsed". Surveying the current state of the Labour Party, there is at least a small possibility that this might happen this time. Just as the "democratic elastic" stretched to breaking point for the Tories in government in 1997, so it can do so for parties in opposition that cannot come to terms with defeat. 

    We are quite unused in this country to the idea that prominent parties can just cease to exist and the experiences of Labour until Blair and the Tories until Cameron have implanted the notion that time and the right leader can heal all wounds. As Gershwin wrote, "it ain't necessarily so."

  127. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 24 July

  128. How to get Blairites really animated

    Dangle the prospect of a left-wing leader

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Jeremy Corbyn

    A candidate who was expected to get nowhere suddenly turns out to be the frontrunner. Who do you expect to be most excited - the candidate, or their opponents? 

    The story of the last few days is that it's the opposite to what you might expect.

    At about 22:00 on Tuesday night we got news of the remarkable poll from YouGov and the Times putting Jeremy Corbyn as the frontrunner in the Labour leadership race. At 22:01, I called Corbyn's spokesperson - and it turned out I was the first to break the news to them. They were just putting the finishing touches to the press briefing on Corbyn's speech on the economy the next day. 

    There was a certain resignation in their voice to that economic speech being buried as they gave me the following statement which you've probably seen around since:

    “You can get excited about polls if you want to, Jeremy will continue to concentrate on policies not polls, policies not personalities, and in the morning he will be outlining his economic vision of fairer taxes for Britain in 2020.”

    It was a forlorn hope. Some people got very excited about the polls - and it wasn't Corbyn's supporters.

    Thirty-five minutes later, John McTernan called MPs that had nominated Corbyn "morons" on Newsnight, and since then there's been a veritable smorgasbord of anti-Corbyn rhetoric from the Labour establishment - Blair, Milburn, Umunna, Beckett, the list goes on. And those are just the ones that are willing to talk live on air. "Very cross" says one very senior former adviser. "Spitting mad" said another former cabinet minister.

    Contrast this with the Corbyn supporters. I've spoken to a few of them over the past couple of days. Several of them have said they simply don't believe the opinion poll. A few of the older heads say they've seen these sorts of things before - and they are a mere puff of air, a bit of media overexcitement. The message seems to be, let's see where we are in a month or so, it's only one poll and so on. You'll notice that there have actually been relatively few of them around on the airwaves. I suspect the reason why is that they don't want to stoke things up any further.

    Perhaps it's because they've been beaten so many times. Perhaps it's because they're right, and the whole thing is a media overreaction. But it's not the Corbynites that are all in a tizzy. 

    Strangely enough, it would seem that the thing that gets the Blairites and the centrists really excited is the prospect of a left wing candidate winning the leadership.

  129. Inside the Newsnight Green Room

    Guests about to go on air on Newsnight on Wednesday 22 July

    This was the scene in our Green Room last night just before we went to air.

    The guests were: Diane Abbott, Emily Thornberry, Mary Creagh, Marieme Jamme and Robtel Neajai Pailey.

    Notice anything?

    If you missed the programme, you can watch again here (UK only)

  130. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 23 July

  131. The battle over the eurozone's future

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Elderly people outside a bank in Athens July 2015

    On Wednesday Greece votes on the second tranche of reforms required to secure a third bailout from its creditors.

    The upside, optimistic scenario, now looks something like this: the measures are passed, a third funding package is agreed and, with trust between the Greek government and its creditors gradually restored, some sort of debt relief (probably involving interest rate cuts, interest payment moratoriums and the extension of the loans maturities) is agreed later this year or early next.

    Read the full piece on my blog

  132. Why Jeremy Corbyn is no Michael Foot

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Michael Foot

    As the Corbyn bandwagon has picked up pace (it's looking more HS2 than wagon as thing stand) there has been a lot of excited chatter among the Westminster classes about the Islington MP being the party's "new Michael Foot". This is pretty ahistorical and a really bad parallel.

    Yes the two men share some significant policy positions. They're both unilateralists, they're both on the left of the party, they're both favourites of the party grassroots. But in almost every other respect they're extremely different.

    1. Foreign affairs: Foot was not pacifist.Foot supported the Thatcher government's military efforts against the Argentinians in the Falklands War. It's hard to imagine Corbyn doing the same. Nor was Foot in favour of withdrawing from Nato, as Corbyn has in the past indicated he'd like to do.

    2. Foot had been a distinguished cabinet ministerthroughout the 1970s Labour governments. As leader of the house he had given a virtuoso parliamentary performance on the night of the Callaghan government's last stand in its vote of no confidence, leading the debate for the government. He had also been Employment Secretary under Wilson and a string of junior ministerial posts before. He was very much inside the Labour machine and as a consequence not a surprise candidate for leader. He'd run for leader twice and deputy leader too - he was very much a big beast already. Corbyn, by contrast, has spent over 30 years on the backbenches.

    3. Foot was no rebel.Until now Jeremy Corbyn's claim to fame was his record for defying the party whip 500 times. Foot served in both the Wilson and Callaghan governments without complaint.

    4. Foot had the support of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). In the second round Foot won the support of 129 of his fellow Labour MPs as opposed to Healey's 119. Corbyn could barely rustle 35 nominations and only with a great deal of help from colleagues who had no intention of voting for him.

    Jeremy Corbyn

    Which leads us to perhaps the most important difference...

    5. He was the unity candidate. It's hard to imagine - given our knowledge of what was to come in 1983 - but in the 1980 Labour leadership election Foot was considered the unity candidate by most Labour MPs. Unlike Corbyn, he was not on the hard left of the party - he was neither a Marxist nor a Bennite. Rather he was a total devotee of Aneurin Bevan, a romantic socialist of the old school who felt more comfortable with the thinking of Swift and Laski than Lenin. 

    His politics were leftist and hence to the distaste of people like Shirley Williams, David Owen and Roy Jenkins, but not so far left that he couldn't attract the support of a majority of Labour MPs. Hence he wanted to form a unity shadow cabinet: Foot went to enormous pains to try and keep the party together during the split. He was utterly furious with Tony Benn for challenging Denis Healey (on the right of Labour) for the deputy leadership and campaigned for the latter against his more ideologically compatible colleague. Indeed, Foot demanded that Benn challenge him instead of Healey. When he won the contest it was considered that the result was better for party unity than if Healey had won, given the former Chancellor's belligerent nature. It's hard to imagine that if Corbyn wins the press write up will be one praising the result as a paean of party unity.

    So let's not make any mistake. If Jeremy Corbyn is elected Labour is in unchartered territory, even compared to 1983. In terms of parliamentary support, and his position on international affairs, Corbyn really would be in a league of his own.

    Michael Foot
  133. Is Labour 'moronic' to consider Corbyn as leader?

    Labour MPs are "moronic" and "suicidally inclined" to consider Jeremy Corbyn for leader. That's what former Blair adviser John McTernan told us on last night's programme, on hearing the news that a new YouGov poll has Corbyn as the frontrunner. 

    In case you missed it, you can watch the interview below.  

    View more on youtube
  134. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 22 July

  135. Milibandites for Corbyn and other oddities

    Who are local Labour parties supporting for leader?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Contenders for the Labour leadership

    Constituency Labour Parties (CLPs) have been busy declaring their support for the four candidates for the Labour leadership. The CLPs have no official role in the contest: each is made up of individual members each with a single vote. So, an endorsement does not mean a block vote for the candidate (for example, in 2010 Islington North endorsed Diane Abbott but its members overwhelmingly plumped for the Miliband brothers). Nonetheless, they do provide an interesting snapshot of the political leanings of local party bigwigs.

    The New Statesman is doing a useful running total of who is endorsing who. Here's where the fun begins. You can cross-reference this with who those CLPs supported in the 2010 contest (many formally endorsed no one).  

    Look at this table, which shows how many of the 2010 endorsements have gone to the candidates this time and who those previous endorsements were for.

    List of CLP endorsements of 2015 Labour leadership candidates

    Now I admit that the significance of this chart is not immediately apparent. To get a better idea, let's first look at Andy Burnham. This table shows that 40  of the 396 CLPs that made an endorsement in 2010 are so far supporting Burnham. Of that 40, only 6 supported him in 2010 when he was also a candidate. 23 of his endorsements previously supported David Miliband, which sits a bit awkwardly with the idea that he is (Corbyn aside) the more left wing option.

    What about Yvette Cooper? She's narrowly in the lead (among CLPs that endorsed in 2010) but only 2 of her 41 endorsements supported her husband Ed Balls in 2010 (he got 17). This means that there is not currently a transfer of Balls support to Cooper.

    Or let's look at Jeremy Corbyn. First point is that he is doing very well, having near parity of endorsements with Burnham and Cooper. But look at where they came from: 10 of his 36 CLPs previously supported David Miliband. This would seem to lend credence to the notion that the leadership of some local parties moved leftwards during the Ed Miliband era.

    A few important caveats to all this:

    1. The endorsements are still coming in, so the picture might change;
    2. A number of CLPs have endorsed this time that didn't in 2010, so it's not possible to compare in those cases;
    3. The CLPs in 2010 do not in some cases directly correlate to those listed for 2015. I have omitted them where this is the case.
    4. Not all CLPs are equal. Some (like Hornsey and Wood Green) had over a 1000 members in 2010, while other were barely more than a hundred.
  136. Why today's spending review cuts are smaller than they look

    A rather crucial bit of arithmetic

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    George Osborne this morning released a document suggesting that he was asking for departments to outline possible cuts of either 25% or 40%. 

    One of the arguments that gets made around the upcoming spending review is that this set of cuts is going to be harder to make. The argument goes that a lot has been cut off departmental spending in the last Parliament, so presumably all the low-hanging fruit are gone. Now the government has to do the really difficult stuff.

    That may well be true. And 25% or 40% on top of the 2010-15 cuts does sound like a lot. 

    But there is a little bit of arithmetic that means that the impact might not be quite as great as it appears.

    Imagine department X had a budget of 100 in 2010. It took a 20% cut from 2010-15, which meant that in 2015 it had a budget of 80. Let's say it makes 20% of cuts again 2015-2020. That gets them down to a budget of 64 by 2020. 

    You'll notice that, despite both cuts being 20%, the 2015-2020 cash cut is of 16 rather than 20. In cash terms, it is less, despite the percentage being the same.

    That means to do a 20% cut this time around, you need to fire fewer civil servants, get rid of fewer facilities and so on than last time.

    So yes, it may be the case that the low hanging fruit on spending cuts are gone. But remember that this time around, because the tree is often smaller than it was, to get the same percentage cut they also need to pick fewer fruit.

  137. Stephen Hawking on aliens

    A brief history of a U-turn?

    Physicist Stephen Hawking experiencing weightlessness in a zero gravity jet

    Has Stephen Hawking committed a cosmic U-turn on the question of whether or not we should be trying to make contact with aliens?

    A Russian billionaire is ploughing £64m into the search for extra-terrestrial life, saying he wants to take the search for intelligent aliens away from being a fringe activity and into the realms of serious science.

    Professor Hawking, who launched the quest yesterday, said: “Somewhere in the cosmos, perhaps, intelligent life may be watching these lights of ours, wondering what they mean… It’s time to commit to finding the answer, to search for life beyond earth.”

    But in 2010, in a series for the Discovery Channel, he said: "If aliens visit us, the outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which didn't turn out well for the Native Americans.” He added that we should actively avoid contact.

    Rather than flip-flopping, Professor Hawking could be referring to two different scenarios: ‘If aliens find us, that’s bad’; ‘if we find them, it could be very interesting.’ Or he could simply have changed his mind.

    Either way, the prospect of finding aliens isn’t as remote as we once thought. Nasa chief scientist Ellen Stofan was quoted earlier this year as saying: "I think we're going to have strong indications of life beyond Earth within a decade, and I think we're going to have definitive evidence within 20 to 30 years."

  138. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 21 July

  139. First cut not the deepest?

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Parliament

    Thought the Budget was it? Think again. The government's spending review, which will set its priorities for the next five years, will take place on 25 November. On Tuesday, the Treasury will write to cabinet ministers asking for savings in their departments to total £20bn.

    The Treasury believes that billions can be found from selling off public land - they say currently over £300bn worth is owned by the taxpayer. And for the first time, departments will be expected to show they are contributing to the government's target of building 150,000 homes on land previously owned by the taxpayer by 2020. It’s worth noting that the government’s attempts to do this in the last parliament was more stumbling than they had hoped, as a recent NAO Report found.

    But ministers also believe that billions could be released by devolving spending from Whitehall, under the Chancellor's so called "Northern Powerhouse" strategy - plans for increased devolution across England. Concrete estimates of how much devolution could save are hard to find. But the Treasury is confident that pooling budgets under their proposed reforms can save significant amounts of money.

    The independent IFS has calculated that departments that are not protected by the ring fence will have to cut 12.6% from their budgets over the next five years. But Newsnight understands the Treasury will not set specific targets for departments. Instead, George Osborne wants to encourage public sector reforms that use taxpayers' money more efficiently. Sources cite Michael Gove's proposed changes to the justice system as an example. The theme of the November review will be "more with less". 

    The Treasury expects cabinet ministers to put forward their proposals for cuts in their departments by September. Newsnight understands the previous process of the "star chamber" where ministers had to appear in front of a small cabinet committee to answer for their plans will not be repeated. But ministers who are keen to "engage" with the Treasury as part of the process will have more control over where the cuts to the departments are made.

  140. Are Islamic extremists as dangerous as bees?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Some bees
    Image caption: Some bees

    This is not quite as silly a question as it looks.

    David Anderson, the Government's independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, pointed out a couple of years ago that people in the UK are roughly as likely to be killed by stings from hornets, wasps and bees as they are by terrorism. US citizens are killed as regularly by their furniture.

    You'll have seen that report is a few years old now - but the statistic still more or less holds out - as does the general point. Far more people are killed by falling off cliffs (18 in the last year for which the statistic exists), a similar number are hit by lightning. You can find your own comparator in the ONS' slightly grisly mortality statistics.

    Now, plainly these comparisons are slightly disingenuous. If the government took the entire budget for the security services and spent it on stopping bee stings, no doubt the number of fatalities from bees would fall and the number of terrorist attacks would substantially rise. 

    We do not know how many attacks the security services stop - for all we know, this statistic is an illustration of their remarkable effectiveness and success.

    But perhaps this gives us an illustration of why the Prime Minister (and many politicians before him) put such an emphasis on British values and identity this morning. 

    Terrorism, arguably, causes a lot more trouble than bees not because of the number of people in the UK that it kills but because of its effect upon the national consciousness - its sense of self.

    It all sounds rather wishy-washy - but this stuff makes a difference. It's widely accepted that financial markets can rise and fall purely on the basis of the general mood of investors. Lest we forget, Scotland almost left the UK last year as a result of a difference on national identity. 

    Which brings me back to my original question. Are terrorists as dangerous as bees? As someone in the UK, you should probably be roughly as scared of dying by terrorism as dying by a bee sting. But the point is you're not. You're scared of terrorism. Unsurprisingly. Because terrorism is inherently scary. It can divide or unify the nation. And that can be just as, if not more, important than the raw mortality statistics.

  141. MPs talking about the Nazi Party

    What were they saying in the early thirties?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Adolf Hitler in 1934
    Image caption: Adolf Hitler in 1934

    One strand of argument around the film of the future Queen performing a Nazi salute in either 1933 or 1934 is that it is ahistorical to be critical of the Royals because the heinous crimes of the party still lay in the future.

    I thought it might be interesting to look at the Parliamentary record to see what MPs were saying about the Nazis in the early 1930s and see the extent to which they were flagging up concerns.

    The first mention of the term Nazi I can find was in July 1931 by Labour MP Major Archibald Church, and was clearly with a negative connotation: 

    "You have a party which in 1929 only returned 10 members to the Reichstag, a year later, in November, 1930, returning 107 members; that is the extreme party, the Hitlerites, or the Nazi."

    Very little followed in 1932 but, as the saying goes, it all started "kicking off" in 1933, around the time that the Sun's video was recorded. In February, Josiah Wedgwood asked the Home Secretary Sir John Gilmour:

    "Is the right hon. Gentleman aware that our ancestors allowed the Huguenots to come into this country under similar circumstances without any damage to our country or our reputation? Will he be prepared to give an equally felicitous asylum to the persecuted victims of Nazi terrorism in Germany?"

    In April, Labour MP Barnett Janner set out very clearly his view on the Nazi "direction of travel":

    "There is no question of any exaggeration here. The policy is openly avowed; it is part and parcel—if not the whole—of the Nazi programme, which seeks to extirpate all non-Aryan influence from the national life. Its operation in practice is manifested in the columns of the Nazi Press, which daily publishes long lists of Jewish doctors driven from hospitals, Jewish lawyers and judges expelled from the courts, and Jewish nurses prevented from carrying on their merciful work. Even Jewish sportsmen like Prenn have been forbidden to play. In fact night after night Nazi spokesmen proclaim on the wireless that Jewry will be destroyed."

    Also in April, Major Harry Nathan said:

    "I believe those who are now in power in Germany, Herr Hitler, Captain Goering, Dr. Goebels and their Nazis, have for the moment, at least dissipated the prospects of Europe being rendered safe for democracy. They have roused the moral conscience of the world against Germany."

    Barnett Janner again, in May:

    "At Leipzig, Nazis summoned the Jewish doctor Schwer to an ailing person. On his arrival at the appointed place he was assaulted and severely beaten. Jews and aliens who are students of Berlin University are to have red admission cards and German students are to have white cards."  

    Robert Bernays, in July:

    "Over and over again, when I was trying to put to the Nazi leaders the feeling in this country aroused by their actions, I was met by the statement: "Your whole country is run by the Jews; your Parliament is run by Jews, your Press is controlled by Jews, your lawyers are Jews, your publishers are Jews,"...  

    "As far as I can estimate, the position of the Jews in Germany is really worse now than it was six weeks ago. The actual persecutions, the actual physical atrocities are over, but there is a persecution quite as systematic and cruel as any that has gone before. The persecution is in the actual regulations passed by the Government against the Jewish community. They involve nothing less than the deprivation of the Jews of all hopes of livelihood...What has happened to the Jews is surely an outrage on civilisation, and it is for civilisation to show not only that it is shocked, but that it is shocked into action."   

    Then, in November, Sir John Simon:

    "This is the moment when the Nazi Government has chosen to destroy the whole agreement at Geneva to secede from the League of Nations, and to complete the moral isolation which the triumph of the Nazi system has gradually brought on Germany."  

    And Sir Archibald Sinclair:

    "We Liberals detest Hitlerism; we detest its revolting manifestations of tyranny and barbarism and its spirit of racial jingoism." 

    Now, in fairness, there are a number of mentions of Nazis that are more neutral, but most contributions have a pejorative sense. This may just be a case of it mainly being raised by those MPs with the level of knowledge or insight to see what was coming. The question, however, is whether any criticisms of those who did not is fair or merely 20:20 hindsight.

  142. What's George Osborne up to on welfare?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Harriet Harman and George Osborne

    We are so used to politicians tearing chunks out of each other that our suspicions are naturally aroused when one offers praise for one of their erstwhile foes. This is particularly the case when that politician is George Osborne, one of the most tactically-adept operators around. 

    The Chancellor has strode onto enemy territory to make the case for the Government's welfare bill in the Guardian this morning. In his article, he offers this praise for Labour's stand-in leader Harriet Harman, who had warned against blanket opposition to the Conservatives' proposals to cut the welfare bill:

    "She recognised something else important in a democracy: that oppositions advance only when they stop blaming the public for their defeat and recognise that some of the arguments made by political opponents should be listened to."

    The proposals will be put to a vote in the Commons this evening and the headline of the Guardian piece ("Calling all progressives: help us save the welfare state") would suggest to the casual eye that Mr Osborne would welcome Labour support. But the Chancellor surely knows that his article and praise for Ms Harman is very likely to scupper any chance of many Labour MPs taking even a neutral stance. Why would they do something that George Osborne has asked them to do?

    And perhaps this is exactly what he wants. The dream of the Conservatives for the next five years is that Labour repeat what they see as the "mistakes" of the Miliband era: opposing every welfare change and allowing David Cameron and his successor at the next election (which might be, ahem, George Osborne) to recycle the slogan that they have become the "Welfare Party" rather than the Labour Party. 

    So, George Osborne may not just be damning Harriet Harman with faint praise: he may be condemning those in the party who want a different approach from 2010-15 to being labelled as "Tory sympathisers" within the Labour movement. 

  143. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 20th July

    Stories today include the Prime Minister's speech on radicalisation, possible Labour splits this evening on a Commons vote on welfare cuts and the ongoing controversy over the Sun's publication of a video of the Queen doing a Nazi salute when she was 7. 

  144. Kids Company responds

    Kids Company has responded this afternoon to new critical press reports about its leadership, including Chris Cook's post from earlier today " The mandarins speak on Kids Company". 

    In a press statement Alan Yentob, Chair of the Board of Kids Company Trustees says: "the trustees have today announced that Camila Batmanghelidjh the founder and inspiration behind the vision and growth of Kids Company will be redefining her role within the organisation. She will be focusing on clinical innovation, which she has pioneered alongside her team and academic collaborators."  

    He goes on to say  "A formal search for a new full time Chief Executive Officer is underway.  We aim to have a new CEO in post by 31st October." Camila Batmanghelidjh will become President of Kids Company.

  145. German parliament votes for Greek bailout

    Gabriel Gatehouse, Newsnight correspondent in Berlin

    Anti-austerity protestors in Berlin today
    Image caption: Anti-austerity protestors in Berlin today

    We have the result of the vote in the Bundestag: it's a "Ja" to the Greek bailout. Not everyone is happy though. "We can't keep throwing good money after bad," Hans Michelbach told me. He was one of 50 rebel MPs from Chancellor Merkel's CDU/CSU bloc. Outside, there was more opposition, this time from the left. A relatively small group of protestors chanted "Pay back your Nazi debt, Germany" (a reference to the country's war-time debt, some of which was written off in the 1950s, by Greece, among others.)

    But the debate over the terms of the bailout (too harsh or just medicine?) obscures a more fundamental sense of unease here in Germany. A country that has spent the last 70 years trying to repair its image in the rest of Europe, now finds itself again cast as the continent's leading bad-guy. 

    That makes many deeply uncomfortable. But there's another view as well: the war, some say, is ancient history. Time to stop apologising and move on. These people are often young, from a generation whose grandparents weren't old enough to bear any responsibility for the Nazi era. Germany, this view holds, should embrace its leading position in Europe, with all the tough choices and potential resentment that entails.

  146. The mandarins speak on Kids Company

    Civil servants worried about charity's management

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Camilla Batmangelidjh
    Image caption: Camilla Batmangelidjh, Chief Executive of Kids Company

    It's a large part of my job working out what officials are saying in private. Sometimes, though, they speak publicly. Today, we have a bit of insight into the Cabinet Office's decision to give £3m to Kids Company solely if their leader, Camila Batmanghelidjh, stepped aside.

    A letter published today shows that officials at the Cabinet Office sought a so-called "ministerial direction" in late June. That means they told ministers that they were concerned about a decision, so ask ministers to reconfirm it in writing. 

    This shows the depth of concern among civil servants - part of the chain of events that led ministers to request a change of leadership in the charity. This is a rare event; under the coalition, there were only three "directions" sought across central government. This is the key section: 

    Section from Cabinet Office letter

    Something that this letter makes clear is that the £3m was an additional bail-out to help restructure the charity. And you can understand the mandarins' worries about it.

    In addition to previous "last" government grants, a parliamentary question asked this week by Tim Loughton, a former children's minister, reveals that a official was placed in the charity for 13 months during the last parliament to help them learn how to tap other sources. 

    Whitehall has run out of patience.

    You can read more about this by my partner in crime on this story, Alan White at BuzzFeed.    

  147. German parliament vote on Greek bailout

    Gabriel Gatehouse, Newsnight correspondent in Berlin

  148. One year on from MH17

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    It's exactly one year today since Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 crashed in Eastern Ukraine killing 298 people, including 10 Britons. People in eastern Ukraine have held a ceremony to honour the dead . It's still not known who was responsible for the downing of the plane, but a Dutch-led team - investigating the disaster - says it has identified "several persons of interest".

    One year ago today Ben Pocock, a student from Keynsham near Bristol, boarded flight number MH17.  At the end of last year Ben's family spoke with Kirsty and told her how some of the families are still waiting for the most basic of answers. 

    You can view the interview with Ben's father, Jeremy Pocock and his sister Emily Pocock below:

    View more on youtube
  149. Varoufakis and the Greek debt deal

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  150. Head to head on the future of the BBC

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    The government has published its consultation document on the future of the BBC, saying it will ask "hard questions" about the size and ambition of the Corporation. The BBC says the Green Paper paves the way for "a much diminished, less popular" Corporation. 

    James Purnell, Director of Strategy at the BBC and Daily Mail columnist Stephen Glover debated the government's consultation paper on last night's programme. 

    You can watch it below: 

    View more on youtube
  151. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 17th July

    Stories today include the German parliament voting on the Greek bailout deal, and UK pilots embedded with coalition allies' forces have been conducting air strikes over Syria against the Islamic State group. There is also the continuing debate about the future of the BBC.

  152. Michael Fallon and the politics of the Battle of Britain

    Mark Urban

    Newsnight Defence and Diplomatic Editor

    Michael Fallon, Defence Secretary
    Image caption: Michael Fallon, Defence Secretary

    Speaking to a conference of senior Royal Air Force officers this afternoon, the defence secretary invoked the heroism of "The Few" 75 years ago, describing the fight against the self-proclaimed Islamic State as a, "new Battle of Britain... once again against a fascist enemy". It was pretty extraordinary language, and it moved a senior Times journalist to tweet, "how can anyone with a straight face let alone the defence secretary... liken bombing raids against ISIS to the Battle of Britain?"

    Of course politicians can get carried away with rhetorical flights of fancy, declaring a "war on drugs" or indeed one on poverty just as easily as they might use the language of conflict to describe the actual business of killing in the national interest. Having been in the (largely uniformed) audience for the speech, it seemed to me that Mr Fallon, fresh from his unexpectedly swift budgetary victory against the Treasury was seeking not just to galvanize the RAF with a sense of its mission, but to justify increased defence spending. 

    Last week, when Mr Fallon got the extra cash needed to keep the UK's military budget up at 2% of GDP until 2020 (something the Conservatives had not been prepared to commit to during the election campaign) I predicted that he would soon be talking about the gravity of the threat to national security in ways he had been unable to do during the campaign. Sure enough, today he told his audience, "the world is a darker, more dangerous place".

    Actually, that's my analysis too. Events in Ukraine, the Middle East and North Africa are creating the most serious challenge to national and European security since the end of the Cold War. The question now for Mr Fallon, and indeed those who argue that even spending 2% of GDP on defence (and that could be adding £6bn a year to the MoD's cash flow by 2020) is inadequate to meet these new threats, is how such big increases can be justified when everything from public libraries to social services or family tax credits are getting chopped?

    The defence secretary actually deployed several different lines of argument in his speech: from bombing the "fascist" Islamic State; to having air power second only to that of the US in terms of global reach; being a good Coalition partner (trying to retain the Americans' respect in other words); and sustaining industries that support 100,000 jobs directly and 125,000 in the wider supply chain. He admitted also, that he would have been, "horrified", if he'd been unable to secure the government's commitment to maintaining the 2% spending pledge.

    So why then was the Conservative Party not prepared to make the argument in these terms, with the spending increases implied by them, just a few weeks ago, when campaigning for votes? They didn't think it would play well perhaps or thought they could be accused of wanting to ramp up spending on weapons of death rather than hospitals or the poor. I hope a quickie book from a Tory election strategist might soon shed some light on this.

    All of this hints at a lack of confidence about public support and a need to formulate a new narrative for national defence. The idea that jihadist terrorism poses the kind of existential threat to Britain that the Luftwaffe did in 1940 is palpably incredible. On social media it has already exposed Mr Fallon to the kind of mockery that followed Michael Portillo's 1995 party conference speech extolling the SAS.

    There is one sense in which the 1940 analogy may, just, hold some water. The number of people flying over Iraq and Syria or acting on the ground is very small. "The Few" of 2015 may not be running the same risks, but the fate of the captured Jordanian pilot burnt alive by IS leaves little doubt that they are engaged in a dangerous business. The defence secretary's speech writers need to find ways to rally the public to spending what's needed to support the forces on these and other missions - and to do so without reaching for dubious historical analogies.                       

  153. Labour leadership election

    It wasn't supposed to be like this

    Neil Breakwell

    Newsnight Deputy Editor

    Newsnight's Labour leadership debate
    Image caption: Newsnight's Labour leadership debate

    So Jeremy Corbyn, according to polling obtained by the New Statesman, is now the frontrunner to win the Labour leadership contest. Lord Mandelson told Newsnight last week that since the election, his party “seems to have gone back to sleep”.  Well, it’s woken up now.

    Polling and elections, as we know, are never wrong and so let me be the first to invite Jeremy Corbyn onto Newsnight in his new role as leader of the official opposition. Voting hasn’t closed yet so Labour members might yet change their mind or have yet to make up their mind, but for now, it’s Jeremy’s to lose. Remember, polls are never wrong. 

    So how did we get here? How did we get from Mr Corbyn being the rank outsider, to frontrunner? Perhaps it’s simply the pitch that Jeremy Corbyn is making: a return to socialist, left wing principles, with policies to match. And his party are loving it.

    When Newsnight hosted the first TV Labour leadership debate in Nuneaton last month, it’s fair to say that Jeremy Corbyn was the one who won the most applause and he did so without telling any jokes. When producing a TV debate you’re usually under pressure from the press officers to produce the dullest show you can. So that their man/woman comes out unscathed. On this occasion, Labour high command were actively keen that all candidates were properly tested and be seen to be tested. Good telly, in other words. I thought this meant that the other three candidates would come out fighting and fighting each other. In the end, they didn’t. It was quite polite. I won’t say dull, but they did try.

    And that has been a feature of this Labour leadership campaign thus far. It’s been a little bit, well, meh. In the Victoria Derbyshire debate Andy Burnham, perhaps rightly, said that people were fed up with soundbite politicians. He then said this: “people want politicians they can believe in” and quite a few mentions of getting out of the “Westminster bubble”. I mean, honestly.

    Jeremy Corbyn is unquestionably having the best campaign of the four, though he started from an easier place. Bottom. His success though (he’s going to win – the polls say so) tells a story of the Burnham, Cooper and Kendal campaigns. They’re not going to plan. I can only assume they haven’t been looking at the polls.

    Allegra will be looking into this story tonight, on BBC2 at 10:30pm

  154. Meeting opera legend Placido Domingo

    Katie Razzall

    Newsnight Special Correspondent

    Placido Domingo with Katie Razzall
    Image caption: Placido Domingo with Katie Razzall

    How do you prepare to meet an opera legend?  There’s no doubt Placido Domingo is that.  One of the three tenors, he took opera mainstream.  Pavarotti died in 2007, Carreras retired for 10 years, but Domingo is still regularly performing at the best opera houses in the world, with 145 roles to date (“they are ripe now”, he told me).

    Now 74, he sings baritone, though he admitted “I don’t pretend to be a born baritone, but I know I give all I have, I sing with all my heart.”  As for the critics who’ve described his new register as “dull”, “unexciting” and “compromised”, he’s unruffled.  “I think people that like my voice, they just don’t care if I have a darker sound.  The public comes out of the theatre happy.”

    Domingo always said he would retire from the stage leaving audiences wanting more.   When will that be?  His voice can’t go on forever but he told me “I will know when I have to leave.”

    For the moment, he’s staying put.  He’s in London at the Royal Opera House presiding over his global talent competition, Operalia.  This, he feels, is his true legacy, an important part of his quest to nurture the talent of the future.

    The interview with Placido Domingo will be on Newsnight tonight on BBC2 at 10.30pm. 

  155. Corbyn Labour leadership odds cut

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    The Labour leadership contest seems to be taking a surprising turn if we are to believe the press. The odds on left-winger Jeremy Corbyn becoming Labour leader have been cut again following media reports that private polling shows him ahead. The New Statesman said surveys by two rival camps have found that the veteran MP is on track to top the first ballot. One apparently suggested he was 15% ahead, while another showed he was in a "commanding position". He is said to have been getting lots of votes from new and younger party members, and has accumulated 40 nominations from local associations. 

    Ladbrokes now puts Mr Corbyn's chances of emerging victorious at 5-1.  The Islington North MP - who only made the ballot paper because colleagues lent him their nominations despite favouring other candidates - has overtaken shadow health minister Liz Kendall, on 8-1. Shadow Health Secretary Andy Burnham is still favourite at 5-6, with Yvette Cooper on 11-4. The result of the leadership election, which is carried out under an Alternative Vote system, is expected to be announced in September. 

    Here is Jeremy Corbyn being interviewed on Newsnight recently about his Labour leadership bid:

    View more on youtube
  156. Former agent: I was abandoned by MI5 after breakdown

    View the Nick Hopkins film in full below

    On Newsnight last night a former MI5 spy broke cover to give us an unprecedented account of his life in service - and describe his anger at the way he was treated. The agent, codenamed Robert Acott, said he spied for 18 years, mostly following Islamic and Irish terrorist suspects.

    He says MI5 pushed him out after he suffered symptoms of stress, later diagnosed as PTSD. MI5 would not comment on the claims - but security sources said they felt his was only one side of the story. You can see Nick Hopkins report below.  

    View more on youtube
  157. Key questions facing Greece and Europe now

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  158. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 16th July

    Stories today include more on the spy who spoke out, the future of the BBC, the latest in the Greece debt crisis, and the LibDem leadership.

  159. Former agent: I was abandoned by MI5 after breakdown

    Former MI5 agent

    A former MI5 surveillance officer has broken cover to give us an unprecedented account of his life in service - and describe his anger at the way he was treated when the stress of the job became too much. 

    The agent, whose codename was Robert Acott, said he worked undercover for the agency for 18 years - mostly following Islamic and Irish terrorist suspects, but also Russian spies and serious criminals. 

    Acott, who has since been diagnosed with post traumatic stress disorder brought on by his career in the service, says the agency pushed him out after he suffered symptoms of stress. 

    MI5 said it would not comment on any of Acott's claims. However, security sources said they felt this was one side of the story.  

    Read the full story here

  160. The five big problems for the unions

    And it ain't the government

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    TUC

    "It's the fault of the militant trade union barons!" no reply the unions, the government is to blame.Sometimes British industrial relations seems barely to have moved on from the 1980s.

    Except, everything has changed. They now have a number of big problems:

    1.) Membership At their peak, before the Thatcherite tidal wave, union membership stood at some thirteen million. Today that number stands at 6.4 million. That means that overall union membership is down to the same level as it was in 1937.

    2.) Public vs Private sector split: That means that only 25% of the overall workforce is unionised. In the private sector their influence is smaller still with only 14% of all private sector employees belonging to a trade union.

    In the public sector, however, the situation is much rosier for those fabled "barons". Fifty-five per cent  of those employees are unionised. It is their last bastion of strength.

    3.) Young people: Long term, the unions also have a problem with demographics. Since 1995 the number of members over 50 has increased considerably, whilst the number under 30 has fallen substantially.

    4.) Geography: It won't come as any surprise to anyone that trade union membership is at its strongest in those parts of the country with an historic culture of heavy industry and mass organisation. As the graph below shows, Wales, the North, Scotland score highly. The problem is this isn't exactly where the major job creation has been over the past two decades.

    HM Treasury

    5.) Sector: Finally take a look at this graph which shows trade union density by industry. Again, all the boom areas such as construction, real estate, science, retail aren't on the right side of the average if you were a trade union leader.

    HM Treasury

    Given this overall national picture, it's no surprise many in the union movement are concerned for their survival as even a residual force with the government's proposed changes. They are reduced demographically, regionally, industrially. With the ability to strike so curtailed, many in the public sector who remain paying their subs might just wonder if there really is any point any more.

  161. Head-to-head on foxhunting vote

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    The issue of fox-hunting has certainly put the question of "English votes for English laws", or EVEL, right at the top of the political agenda. That's after the Scottish National Party made it clear it would vote against a relaxation of the laws in England and Wales. 

    Here are the SNP's Tommy Shepherd and the Conservatives' Graham Stewart going head-to-head on the issue on last night's Newsnight. Emily started by asking Tommy Shepherd if it had taken the wind out of the SNP's sails when Cameron cancelled the vote?  

    View more on youtube
  162. Was the Greek strategy based on acting mad?

    Or was there some other plan in play?

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Yanis Varoufakis on a motorbike

    Was Yanis Varoufakis, the former Greek finance minister, pursuing a "madman" strategy? That is what Lord Finkelstein wrote this morning in The Times.

    Quote Message: "Varoufakis believed that if his negotiating partners - the Germans, the IMF, the Commission - concluded he was a bit bonkers, a bit reckless, they would appreciate that he might crash the Greek economy and bring down the whole edifice of the euro on top of him. Persuading your adversary that you are mad is a classic game theory gambit." from Daniel Finkelstein The Times
    Daniel FinkelsteinThe Times

    I don't think that's right. In truth, I think you can understand the Greek negotiating position much more simply: they got the economics wrong. I've written about it at more length over here.

  163. PMQs review: hug Harriet

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Harriet Harman
    Image caption: Harriet Harman, acting Labour leader

    "Join us! Join us!" bellowed the Tory benches as Harriet Harman stood up for PMQs this week. After her refusal to oppose the government's welfare changes, Conservative members wanted to hug her close, as did the Prime Minister.

    Again and again he quoted the acting Labour leader's words back at her, to a stony set of Labour MPs.  Given this was a difficult situation for her, she didn't do too badly. She meandered through a series of questions, on Greece, unemployment and tax credits. Did we learn anything? A few tidbits:

    1.) Cameron supports Greek debt relief: blink and you'll miss it but the PM confirmed he thought there needed to be debt relief for Greece, I think for the first time. On the other hand he repeatedly used the "nothing to do with us, guv" line so he doesn't seem in any hurry to pressure for it amongst his fellow European premiers. He also confirmed that if Greece did leave the Eurozone, as a fellow EU member the British government would assist with humanitarian aid. I'm sure the Greeks can't wait for all the aid boxes of cheddar when all the feta runs out. The PM, ever the master of understatement confirmed that he thought the Greek people had had a "difficult time."

    2.) Tax credits: One chink in the government's armour has been revealed apropos its tax credit changes.  Harman put the PM under pressure over the status of sick people who might come off the register, lose their in work benefit, only to resume work and no longer be eligible. Wonder if Osborne might move to iron this out quickly before it catches on outside the Commons chamber.

  164. John Redwood's banknote theory

    James Clayton, Newsnight political producer

    John Redwood thinks all you need to illustrate the problems of the Euro are two banknotes – one €20 and one £20 note. 

    First of all look at the British £20 note

    £20 note

    * The Queen represents the British Government

    *There is a statement from the Bank of England:  “I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of twenty pounds”

    * It is signed by the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England

    * It has a picture of… the Bank of England

    * It has a logo of… the Bank of England

    In short – this is a pretty unequivocal IOU. It’s an explicit "promise to pay" from the Bank of England, assured by the British Government.

    Now take a look at the €20

    20 Euro note

    What does this note actually mean?

    *  The gothic windows are not real, they don’t exist. They’re a symbol of “an artistic period” of European architecture

    * The flag on the note is the EU flag – despite nine countries within the EU having nothing to do with the Euro

    * There is a signature, but it’s not explained who it is or what their role is

    * There is no explanation as to what his note actually means for the owner

    * There is only one reference to the European Central Bank on both sides of the note

    Redwood argues that this tells you all you need to know about how the Eurozone works. The Euro notes are unclear, ungrounded and do not adequately represent the governments that back the ECB.

  165. Tsipras faces crucial parliamentary vote on Greek debt deal

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Greek parliament building
    Image caption: Demonstrators in front of the Greek parliament building

    Today, as the Greek Parliament votes to pass the first tranche of the provisional deal agreed on Monday, much attention is being focused on the latest Debt Sustainability Analysis from the IMF. It asks how sustainable Greek government debt would be post-programme and basically concludes "not very".

    Some form of debt relief - whether an actual write down or a very long interest payment holiday of 30 years is needed. That makes sense - almost no one thinks that Greece's debt burden can be dealt with through growth and austerity alone. Although it's worth remembering this is a medium and long term issue not a short term one, for whilst the level of Greek debt is sky high the burden of that debt is currently very low. Interest payments have always been cut and temporarily suspended and debt service in Greece is lower than in Portugal or Italy.

    The really odd thing here is that Greece wanted the IMF to end its involvement in the bailouts whilst the Germans insisted they remain a player. And yet on debt relief they are firmly on Greece's side. Is this a block to a deal? If, in the medium term the Europeans refuse any form of debt relief - then yes. But, if after the Greeks have passed the required measures debt relief can be discussed, then no. This report states the obvious - some form of debt relief is needed, but debt relief will only be politically sell-able in Northern Europe if Greece is seen to be keeping up its half of the bargain.

  166. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 15th July

    Stories in the news include the Greek parliament voting today on the bailout deal. Meanwhile the IMF says Greece's public debt is now "highly unsustainable" and is urging debt relief on a scale "well beyond" what's been considered until now. 

    The Government publishes its Trade Union Bill today, which would require a higher proportion of workers to vote in a ballot before a strike was legal. It will also propose that union members would have to say whether they wanted to pay a political levy.

  167. Life as a sex slave to IS

    Sue Lloyd-Roberts

    It's rare to hear from people who've been held captive by Islamic State militants. When we do, the stories are harrowing. Last night we ran a powerful report by Sue Lloyd-Roberts - she has been speaking to three young Yazidi women who managed to escape. Here's the online write up.  

  168. Post update

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  169. Losing their marbles?

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    West frieze of the Parthenon sculptures or Elgin Marbles at the British Museum
    Image caption: West frieze of the Parthenon sculptures or Elgin Marbles at the British Museum

    At this point in the economic cycle of Greece’s woes, you have to wonder – just a little – what Amal Clooney is really doing. The new privatisation fund proposed yesterday is "established in Greece, managed by Greek authorities under the supervision of the relevant Euro institutions". They are targeting asset sales of fifty billion euros, a sizeable chunk of Greek GDP. An extraordinary transfer of sovereignty in peace time over these assets with – let’s be honest – no real mandate from the Greek people.

    The Greeks would say they’ve seen it all before. But if they're still trying to get those Elgin Marbles back, more than two hundred years on, what hope is there for something on this scale?

  170. The EVEL is in the detail

    James Clayton, Newsnight political producer

  171. 10 things you need to know about the Iran Deal

    Mark Urban

    Newsnight Defence and Diplomatic Editor

    President Obama on the phone to President Rouhani
    Image caption: President Obama talking on the phone to President Rouhani of Iran in September 2013

    1. It curbs Iran's nuclear programme, it doesn't stop it. They will still have nuclear plants, and the ability to re-process and enrich their own uranium fuel, the US gave up on the goal of stopping that two years ago.

    2. Iran's leaders have always said they don't want to make the bomb, and even Israeli briefings have conceded that Tehran has never made a decision to press on with nuclear weapons production. Today's agreement attempts to ensure things remain that way with an expanded verification regime.

    3. The most important immediate implication for the region is that Iran is going to get a lot more cash - from unfrozen assets and expanded oil sales - and Saudi Arabia will be the biggest net loser in this.

    4. Iran's desire to escape the sanctions regime has defined many of its concessions, from accepting that some facilities (such as the Arak plutonium reactor) it once hoped to exclude from the deal would have to be rolled in, to accepting that an embargo on conventional weapons sales will remain for a good deal longer.  

    5. For those hoping Iran might use some of that money to buy lots of arms (principally Russia and China), today's agreement is a disappointment. It extends the current arms embargo for five years and one on new ballistic missile technology for eight years. This is one of the big (positive) surprises of the past week's talks, since last week Russia trying to get an immediate lifting. Iran's desire to end sanctions proved stronger though, so they didn't hold out on this.

    6. Since businesses owned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are among the principal sanctioned entities, many Gulf states will be concerned about the Guards using the extra cash to back its Shia brethren in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and eastern Saudi Arabia. Today France's president said the world would be watching closely to see that the Guard does not use its additional funds to sponsor unrest in the region.

    7. Optimists hope that far from destabilizing the region with its extra resources, the agreement opens the way for increased cooperation. From Lebanon through Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan its possible to see how Iran could help bring stability if of course it wants to. Last week one of Iran's deputy foreign ministers hinted that his country didn't see Bashar al Assad as president for life in Syria. Does this suggest an Iranian willingness to help in an international plan to end the Syrian civil war? That's one key thing we will be looking for.

    8. Whatever your views about Israel and the power of its vaunted Washington lobby, this is a good moment to note that years of outspoken opposition to this deal have failed to change the course of US policy on the Iranian nuclear issue - and it's a pretty vital one. There is much that still unites Israel and the US, but today an alliance that has helped define middle east affairs for decades seems that bit weaker. 

    9. The same goes for the Saudi Arabian lobby, which is also sometimes talked up by Washington insiders in near mystical terms. Its opposition was a good deal less public than Israel's, but now Saudi Arabia has to recalculate the terms of its alliance with the US.

    10. If the middle east is to be increasingly defined by the Sunni/Shia schism, this deal will allow the US and its western allies to claim a little more credibly to be neutral in that intra-Islamic quarrel. Up until now, their desire to arm the Gulf states and support them strategically undermined such notions. But the US, UK, France and Germany will all, once the agreement is ratified, be free to trade with Iran on a grand scale and to expand all manner of other ties.                

    President Hassan Rouhani of Iran
    Image caption: President Hassan Rouhani of Iran
  172. Would EVEL have made a difference to the fox-hunting vote?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    This morning, the Government pulled plans to hold a free vote on a relaxation to the fox hunting ban - presumably because it wasn't sure it had the numbers to win after the SNP stated they would definitely oppose it.

    There has been some suggestion that this problem will be solved once the Government have put through their proposals for English Votes for English Laws.

    But James Landale, the BBC's Deputy Political Editor, has highlighted a passage in the proposals that suggests otherwise - it reads as follows:

    (2) If a division is held on a motion to which this order applies, the motion shall be agreed to only if, of those voting in the division- 

    (a) a majority of Members, and 

    (b) a majority of Members representing qualifying constituencies, vote in support of the motion.

    In other words, a majority of votes amongst English MPs is a necessary but not sufficient condition for an English only vote to pass. As currently drafted, my reading is that all the changes would do is make sure that things that were not supported by a majority of English MPs would not pass.

    Whereas English only measures that were not supported by Scottish MPs but were supported by a majority in the house nonetheless - including a majority amongst English MPs - would pass.

    In the case of fox hunting, then, it's not clear that EVEL would make a difference - even with EVEL in place, if a majority of Parliament votes against something (including Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish etc MPs) then, regardless of whether it's an English or a UK wide measure, it ain't happening.

    *This is just my reading of the text. You can have a look yourself here

    Fox hunting
  173. Carney casts doubt on Greek debt deal

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has questioned the deal struck yesterday over the future of Greece. Mr Carney told the Treasury Select Committee this morning that achieving the aims set out by the Euro-group will take "Herculean efforts". He also pointed out that the continuing problems with Greece "underscore the number of institutional shortcomings that still exist with European Monetary Union".

    Here are his comments at greater length: "The statement by Euro group leaders on Monday morning is an attempt to craft a programme which will allow Greece to return to sustainable growth. What's embedded in that statement will require Herculean efforts from all sides. It will be tested. The scale of structural reforms, the scale of fiscal adjustment, the scale of privatisation that will ultimately be required are significant. In addition there is an observation about the necessity of smoothing out the debt profile.'

    "The process by which this agreement was struck, the nature of the agreement, the scale of the challenge underscore the number of institutional shortcomings that still exist with European Monetary Union". 

    These are critical words from the Bank of England Governor at an important moment for Greece and the Euro. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras now has to get the support of the Greek parliament for the deal in the next few days. He is likely to face opposition from many on the left of his own Syriza party, which was swept to power on an anti-austerity platform.

    Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
    Image caption: Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England
  174. Athens after the Greek debt deal

  175. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    14th July

    Stories today include fox hunting, the Greek debt deal, and the Iran nuclear agreement. 

  176. Harman tries to calm Labour welfare cuts row

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    Labour's acting leader, Harriet Harman, seems to have stepped back from a confrontation with MPs in her party over her position on benefit cuts. As Allegra wrote in her post earlier, the row was looking "pretty serious". 

    Ms Harman had been criticised for announcing that Labour wouldn't oppose restrictions on Child Tax Credits announced in last week's Budget. But Ms Harman,  who will hold a private meeting with Labour backbenchers this evening -  now says it will be up to a future leader to decide policy.  

    The only leadership candidate to support Ms Harman, Liz Kendall, said Labour had to show voters it had changed. However Andy Burnham and Jeremy Corbyn said the cuts should be opposed - while Yvette Cooper said tax credits were vital to many families.

    Labour leadership candidates
    Image caption: Labour leadership candidates at the Newsnight debate
  177. Labour welfare cuts row

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

  178. Is Jeremy Corbyn Bernie Sanders?

    And how much of an impact will they have?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    As I've written about before, the true state of Labour's leadership race is rather difficult to measure - because we don't have any polling on it. 

    But right now, something vaguely similar is going on in the US - the race to be the Democratic candidate for President. And that certainly has been polled. Look at this chart from the Huffington Post of the state of the race:

    US Democratic nomination polling

    Hillary Clinton is obviously the front runner, and most people expect it to be more or less a Clinton coronation. The purple line in second place for most of the chart is for a candidate that isn't even standing. But who's that green line rising into July?

    It's Bernie Sanders, a candidate far off to the left of the usual presidential nominee. Here's a quote froman interviewhe did with the New York Times recently:

    “Ordinary people are profoundly disgusted with the state of the economy and the fact that the middle class is being destroyed and income going to the top 1 percent.”  

    Sounds a bit Corbynesque doesn't it?

    It was widely reported that Ed Miliband believed that the UK had fundamentally moved to the left after the financial crisis. A lot of people think the UK electorate proved him wrong at the ballot box a few months ago.

    But it's curious that in both the US and the UK, an unusually left wing candidate is getting an unusual amount of attention. Allegra reported on this blog earlier that private research by the Labour leadership contenders suggests a lot of Labour members sympathise with Corbyn. And that US Democratic polling chart speaks for itself.

    In other words, conventional wisdom suggests that whilst the whole electorate appears not to have moved to the left, there does seem to be evidence that Labour activists and registered Democrats have done. 

    If true, this leaves whoever wins the Labour or Democrat leadership/presidential nomination with a rather difficult tightrope to walk. Do they tack towards the centre, where the ultimate election will be won? Or do they tack left, and make certain that they win the nomination for it in the first place?

    And here we come to the difference between Sanders and Corbyn. 

    Right now, Hillary Clinton has a big enough lead that she can probably afford to ignore some of those more left wing Democrats and concentrate on the big prize after the nomination. But if internal pollingisshowing Corbyn doing well, then the dynamics of a four way Labour leadership race may mean he pulls the whole field out towards him. We may have got a hint of that this morning as they opposed Harriet Harman's plans not to oppose Conservative changes to tax credits.

    If Ed Miliband really was wrong about the British electorate moving to the left, that's bad news for Labour's prospects over the next few years.

  179. Tsipras after the deal

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  180. How a budget can be both progressive and regressive

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Sajid Javid yesterday said something that appeared to completely contradict much of what we'd heard about the budget:

    "This is not a regressive Budget" he told Andrew Marr. 

    On the face of it, Javid is flat out wrong. This is the graph from the IFS - which appears to show a strikingly regressive budget:

    IFS distributional analysis of 2015 budget

    In general, when a politician contradicts the IFS, the IFS is the one in the right.

    But is this really what Sajid Javid meant? Let's look at another quote from him in the same interview:

    "This is a Budget, like the others since 2010, we've made sure it's the richest in society that make the biggest contributions, One of the numbers published in this Budget, for example, the richest one per cent are going to pay 27 per cent of total income tax. I think that's fairness."  

    To me, this looks like the Business Secretary is answering a slightly different question. Namely, if you take the whole tax and benefit system as it will stand after the budget, will it be progressive or regressive? 

    Now, Sajid Javid's answer to this question is correct. In the UK we have a progressive taxation system - we tax rich people more than we tax poor people, and we give more benefits to poor people than rich people. This budget hasn't changed that fact. After this budget, rich people will still contribute more to the public finances than poor ones.

    So, how do we square these two apparently contradictory positions? 

    Quite simply.

    After the budget, our tax and benefits system will continue to be progressive (Javid's point), but the impact of this particular budget was to make it less so (the IFS point). 

  181. Reaction to deal in Greece

    Jess Brammar, Newsnight producer in Athens

  182. Greek bailout deal

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  183. Harman's support for welfare cuts splits Labour

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    The row this morning between Harriet Harman and almost all of the three leadership candidates is pretty serious. Over the weekend the acting Labour leader said she thought Labour would back Tory cuts to child tax credits for more than two children. She believes that she has a moment right now to reposition Labour on tax and welfare, and that in some ways she has the political cover to take very difficult decisions in a way the new leader may struggle to. Perhaps this is code for "not want to". Anyway, this is what she's doing. It's now Monday morning and Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Jeremy Corbyn have all said she is wrong.

    I've been talking to Labour MPs this morning and they are pretty worried. There is firstly concern about what this says for party unity. Labour backbenchers understand that Harman's position was discussed in shadow cabinet and that these leadership contenders are going rogue. I think this is a little unfair - they have a leadership contest to win by being distinctive and strident. But MPs fear that the chaos that ensues is causing lasting damage.

    Perhaps more importantly is the sense this contest is being dragged to the left, again - perhaps in a permanent way. Some MPs report Andy Burnham having indicated he would be tougher in this leadership contest on welfare than he has so far been. It's suggested that he may even have made private comments that he understood people's concerns about too generous a welfare bill when trying to secure the nominations of his Labour colleagues. Since the leadership contest began in proper, he has not done that and these MPs feel very let down. Because Yvette Cooper has refused to say Labour ran too high a deficit going into the down turn she is less vulnerable than Andy Burnham on the left. Burnham has said the party must "own up" and admit the deficit was too high when in government. Perhaps for this reason Burnham is working hardest to get Jeremy Corbyn's second preferences.

    Private research being done for the leadership contenders has shocked many by revealing quite how many party members sympathise with Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is a very smart man who I have always rather admired. When having a chat with him he’s prone to start waxing lyrical about William Morris. Just now he used the word "sophistry" in the Victoria Derbyshire hustings... A lot of former Labour cabinet ministers wouldn't dream of using that kind of word. Many people who are saying they will vote Corbyn tell the phone canvassers they joined the party in 2010, and then another chunk joined under Ed Miliband's leadership. The worry for some MPs is that Ed Miliband's lasting legacy may be to have brought in to the party these members who then end up making Labour's next leader more left wing than its modernisers want.

    This evening's meeting of the parliamentary Labour party will see these issues raised and many of my sources are in the mood to lean in to the fight.

    Harriet Harman
    Image caption: Harriet Harman, acting Labour leader
  184. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    13th July

    Stories today include Greece and the Labour leadership. Eurozone leaders have just agreed to offer Greece a third bailout deal after seventeen hours of talks in Brussels. Is this a final deal and what will it mean for Greece and the rest of Europe? 

    Labour MPs will hear from the party's acting leader, Harriet Harman, tonight after she backed some of the welfare cuts announced in last week's Budget. This caused a split among candidates for the leadership of the party with three out of the four candidates not supporting welfare cuts.

  185. The Confederate flag... dead but not buried

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Crowds cheer as the Confederate flag comes down in South Carolina

    "I have it on good authority - the world is watching us "

    The breaking voice of Charleston Republican Jenny Horne, as she spoke to South Carolina House members in an emotionally charged plea - begging them to pass the legislation to bring down the Confederate flag that flies in the state capital, Columbia.

    Today - to cheers and a gathering of thousands - that flag finally came down.

    The flag that has Americas racial past woven into its fabric. The slavery, the segregation and the prejudice. The flag that last month came to symbolise not just America's past but its continuing divisions. It was clutched by Dylan Roof, the man who shot dead nine Black Americans as they prayed in church and declared he wanted to start a race war.

    Onlookers today declared the moment the flag came down as the beginning of catharsis after a massacre that still had the power to shock a nation.

    But the Confederate flag is only momentarily dead, not buried. It will no longer fly alongside the Columbia statehouse. But look closely and you'll find it imprinted in the state flag of Mississippi. A state that has its own share of ghosts from its civil rights struggle. 

    Will Mississippi now follow where South Carolina has led? Or will that American insistence on free expression ensure their state flag continues to fly proudly.    

    The Mississippi state flag
    Image caption: Spot anything in the top left?
  186. MPs where you least expect them...

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    We all know the story of Johnny Mercer and those bulging biceps. Many a researcher in Parliament has doubtless been looking at him anew (I only hope for his sake he doesn't become the Aaron Shock of Parliament).

    Sometimes politicians turn up where you least expect them, for example,this ad featuring Denis Healey. A man who knows a thing or two about taking out credit, the former chancellor starred in this gem for Visa card:

    Denis Healey

    Perhaps nothing beats Neil Kinnock turning up on a Tracy Ullman video

    Neil Kinnock

    Or Margaret Thatcher on Coronation Street:

    Margaret Thatcher

    The Americans are at it as well. I'm never without my Boraxo powder soap:

    Ronald Reagan with Boraxo

    Not a real politician but Francis Urquhart (aka Ian Richardson) did a good turn for Rover in the 90s.

    BBC

    You might very well think that, I couldn't possibly comment...

  187. A major British power broker...

    ...who stays in the shadows

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Over at my blog, I've written a long piece about the most powerful person you've never heard of. How powerful? This powerful: 

    Quote Message: When Labour wants to propose someone for a peerage, they ring her on the phone. She then gives them an oral "yes" or "no" as to whether they are likely to get through vetting. The party accepts her verdicts, but there are no records and she never explains herself. There is simply no check on what basis she performs the first sift on House of Lords membership. from The most powerful person you've never heard of
    The most powerful person you've never heard of
  188. China lifts restrictions on Ai Weiwei art?

    Richard Crook, Newsnight producer

    The Chinese government appears to have relaxed their ban on exhibiting the work of dissident artist Ai Weiwei. Four shows have now opened with no interference from authorities. 

    China banned exhibitions of Ai Weiwei's work in 2011, after he was arrested as part of a crackdown on bloggers and activists. He is still not permitted to leave the country. 

    The lack of official opposition has come as a surprise to the internationally renowned artist. "I never planned to have a few shows all at once," he told The Art Newspaper. "I was not sure it would happen until the [first] opening." 

    In 2012, he spoke to Newsnight about his hopes to travel to London to see the sunken pavilion he had designed for the London 2012 Festival. He also spoke about his life under house arrest, where all his activities are regulated, and how he is still able to communicate with his followers on Twitter. You can view the video below.

    In September, his work will be on display at the Royal Academy in London.  

    View more on youtube
  189. Latest on Greek debt crisis

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  190. Fox hunting vote in Commons next week

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    It's been confirmed that MPs will vote next Wednesday on whether to relax the ban on fox-hunting. The Government is bringing forward measures to bring England and Wales into line with Scotland, where hunts can use an unlimited number of dogs to chase, but not kill foxes. 

    Queen guitarist and animal welfare campaigner Brian May and Jim Barrington, a welfare consultant to the Countryside Alliance, appeared on Newsnight last night to debate the government plans to relax the ban on fox hunting. It was a robust exchange. You can watch the discussion below. It includes strong language which some viewers may find offensive.  

    View more on youtube
  191. Greek government proposals

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  192. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    10th July

    Stories today include the latest in the Greek debt crisis. Will the Greek government's new proposals lead to a deal with creditors?

  193. 'Blah Blah Blah' says the Treasury

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Often, in this job, you receive the group email that gives you the departmental or party spin on whatever has just happened. For example Lib Dem Lords sending out a "Whitehall Warning" on the security problems that the selling off of assets will cause.

    Sometimes they sparkle with wit and excitement. And more often they don’t. But rarely, in this job, do you get the ones that read your own mood so appropriately. Today, we did. A round robin email from the Treasury reached us this afternoon with the word

    "Dear". And then a blank.

    And then the three words

    "Blah blah blah".

    And then the cordial salute

    "Regards."

    Arguably it told us no more and no less than usual. But this one, it must be said, seemed to chime with a sense of post budget, pre-holiday, languid, sunshiny end of week exhaustion. And in an era where we are constantly demanding that politicians and their advisors" speak human," this time they did.

    Email picture
  194. The Budget: one day later

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Over at my BBC blog, I've got some considered reaction to yesterday's budget

    The move on the National Living Wage is very big and represents a significant change in how the government sets policy towards the labour market. 

    That, and a half dozen other measures, suggest a shift in how George Osborne's Chancellorship will be viewed. 

  195. A very regressive budget

    The IFS spills the beans on Osborne's tax and benefit changes

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Yesterday, a couple of us in the Newsnight office were a little bit confused. We wondered why, unlike in previous years, the Government had not published what's called a "distributional analysis" of the impact of the 2015 summer budget. It told us the cumulative effect of the last six years of changes, including under the coalition - which is rather different.

    Now, helpfully the IFS have done one. Before you look at it, a quick explainer on how to read these charts. If the line slopes downwards (as you read from left to right), the budget is "progressive" - it helps out poor people more than it helps out rich people. If the line slopes upwards (as you read from left to right), the budget is "regressive" - it helps out rich people more than it helps out poor people. 

    Here it is:

    A regressive chart

    So, pretty unambiguously regressive

    Now, of course, if you think that benefits and taxes are too high then this is a good thing. Low income people receive more benefits, high income people pay more tax, so readjusting the system like this is for the good. 

    And the Government might argue that much of this will be counteracted by the higher minimum wage anyway. That's true - although the IFS point out that for most people on tax credits, for example, the minimum wage won't counteract the change. 

    I suspect part of the reason why is this: a lot of people claiming tax credits will be working relatively few hours. If you work relatively few hours (for example because you have to look after children), the extra cash from having a higher minimum wage (or "national living wage" in Osborne's language) is much lesser. The more you work, the more extra cash you earn - see this chart (the red area is the extra cash from the living wage):

    earnings

    Tax credits, broadly speaking, work the other way around. As you earn more and more, the cash value of them decreases. So you can see why the lowest earners get hit - they lose most from tax credits and gain least from higher minimum wages.

  196. Life in Athens

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  197. Cameron child tax credit changes

    Did he rule them out before the election?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    On 31 March 2015, David Cameron appeared on the Question Time Election Leaders Special. The very first exchange was as follows:

    Questioner: "Will you put to bed rumours that you plan to cut child tax credit and restrict child benefit to two children?"

    David Cameron: "Well thank you Jenny for that question. No, I don't want to do that, this report that was out today was something that I rejected at the time as prime minister and I reject it again today". 

    He finishes his answer by pivoting to the successes of his benefits cap. 

    But Dimbleby clarifies with the Prime Minister: "Sorry – you said you didn’t want to put to bed the rumours that you were going to cut Child Tax Credits, you meant you did want to put to bed the rumour?"

    Cameron: "Ah, yes. We increased child tax credits actually, we increased them by £452 under this government because I was determined that while we had to take difficult decisions, and we have, we were left an absolute nightmare  to clear up, I wanted to make sure that child poverty continued to fall and it has fallen because of what we did on child tax credits."

    Dimbleby: "And so that’s a guarantee that you won’t" (moves on to audience member who asks about benefit cap)

    In the run up to the Budget, my colleague Allegra Stratton reported that the Government was looking at options on how to make changes to child tax credits. 

    Sure enough, George Osborne, presumably with David Cameron's blessing, announced that the Government was going to limit child tax credit for people with more than two children. 

    He also made other changes, including increasing the rate at which it was withdrawn from people as they got more work (the "taper rate") from 41% to 48%, and reducing the level of income at which it would be withdrawn. They also froze the level of tax credits. 

    The effect of all of these measures is that the Government will be spending less on tax credits than it would have been if it hadn't done them - to the tune of billions. We know this because the budget book tells us so.

    I leave it to you as to whether what George Osborne announced yesterday on tax credits was consistent with what David Cameron told the Question time audience before the election.

    But, if you're interested, here's how David Gauke reacted after being played the first half of that clip yesterday on Newsnight:

    View more on youtube
  198. Osborne's Labour Budget

    James Clayton, Newsnight Political producer

    For five years Conservatives have harped on about the onerous limitations imposed on them by the Liberal Democrats. Strange then that the first truly Conservative budget for nearly 20 years was heavily influenced by Labour. 

    Osborne's policy on the living wage, non-doms and crucially the one year slip on deficit reduction target were all in the manifesto. The Labour manifesto.

    The reaction to this raid has been interesting. Far from accusations of plagiarism, his own party has lapped up policies that they were decidedly less keen about when Miliband announced them. 

    Rather than being described as "Labour lite", he's been sanctified as "canny", "expedient" or "ruthless". The Conservatives are briefing out today that in fact Osborne had been thinking about introducing the living wage for years, but had been stifled by coalition intractability. 

    But one Tory source says that although Osborne had been contemplating the move, he had not been convinced by the evidence for the business case of the policy. They were keen to stress the importance of Cabinet Office minister Matthew Hancock in making the argument to Osborne privately.  

    Labour will argue that it is absurd to suggest that Osborne had been planning a living wage all along, while not including it in the Conservative manifesto. One minister gets in touch to explain however that the reason for not including it in the manifesto was because, although it may have won votes, it would have required announcing welfare cuts on this scale. 

    If true, Osborne ultimately made the decision that even though the living wage would have been popular to low income voters, the detail he would have had to have provided in the manifesto on benefits cuts - and particularly tax credit reform - would have been simply too difficult to sell to the electorate. 

    Ed Miliband
    Image caption: Some Budget measures came from Ed Miliband's Labour manifesto
  199. Grexit contagion?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  200. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    July 9th

    The stories around today include post-Budget political and economic reaction and Greece's new proposals. Will they be accepted by the Eurozone leaders?

  201. Defence Breathes a Sigh of Relief

    Mark Urban, Diplomatic and defence editor

    Merlin helicopter on the flight deck of HMS Illustrious

    With hindsight you can might say there were hints from Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, and briefings from those around George Osborne that defence would escape the worst effects of what was widely expected to be an austerity budget. But even so,today's announcement - that the forces' budget would meet the 2% of GDP Nato target until 2020 - caught many Whitehall insiders by surprise. 

    During the election campaign it was calculated that this would add £6bn a year to military spending by 2020, but with new economic growth projections that figure could be even higher.

    One person who can say, "I told you so," is former Nato Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen. Back in spring, weeks before the election, he told me - as we finished an interview for Radio 4 - that he was confident the UK would meet the 2% target, that he had received assurances to that effect from No 10, and that this would only be announced after the country had gone to the polls. As the Nato chief during September 2014's Wales Summit, when that spending target had been set, he had a very particular interest in this.

    Try as I could, I couldn't find a second source for what Mr Rasmussen had told me, and we had finished recording when he said it, so the story went no further. As the election campaign continued, both the Conservatives and Labour refused to commit to the 2% target and many, including senior officers in the forces, concluded heavy cuts were on the cards.

    Not only did the Conservatives allow themselves to be painted as a party about to take an axe to cherished regiments or warships, but they remained true to the political logic of that position. So, for example, when Andrew Neil and I cross examined the party defence spokespeople late in April, for the Daily Politics Defence and Security Debate, Mr Fallon would not concede that threats to Britain's security had increased - despite events in Ukraine or the rise of the Islamic State group. 

    Now that he can count on a substantially bigger budget, he will presumably have to change this position, and argue that the UK is buying new maritime patrol aircraft or fighter planes because a worsening international security environment demands it. What a difference a (Budget) day makes. 

    So unexpected is this turn of events that many Whitehall-watchers have been looking for small print, a catch that might mean the government isn't being quite as generous as it suggests. Attention focused first on a new £1.5bn Security Fund for the intelligence and counter terrorist people, also announced today, but apparently, no, that's quite separate to the defence pledge. Then others asked whether some spending such as war pensions or peacekeeping operations, might get lumped into the MoD's budget, eating away at the increase. 

    While we cannot yet categorically rule out such budgetary sleight of hand, there can be no doubt that, particularly towards the end of the Parliament, there will still be substantially more cash going through Defence. 

    Many have been asking me today "why on earth didn't they say this before the election?" The explanation that they hadn't yet done the sums back in April doesn't hold water - assurances had been given to certain people like Mr Rasmussen. I understand similar signals had been given privately to the US.

    So what do we conclude from all this? That in an election where the health service and benefits cuts were key battlegrounds, even a party that historically has prided itself as strong on defence feels unable to make the argument for spending more on it. As the top brass and contractors ease the champagne corks, celebrating their unexpected good fortune, that's worth remembering.                 

  202. What does it all add up to?

    The effects of all these Budget changes

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    The Resolution Foundation, an apolitical think tank, has been poring over the Budget fine print - the rising minimum wage, income tax cuts and cuts to benefits - and calculated its estimates for the overall effect of the package on different sorts of families in 2020. 

    Here's how they explain their maths:

    • "A low earning single parent with one child, working 20 hours a week at £9.35 an hour, will be £1,000 a year worse off. That is, the gain associated with the increase in the personal tax allowance is more than offset by reductions in benefit entitlement. To offset this fall in disposable income would require an increase of £3,400 in earnings – equivalent to a one off 44% rise in earnings, 18 years of steady 2% pay rises, or increasing their hours by 7 hours a week."
    • "A low earning dual-earner couple with two children both earning £9.35 an hour will be £850 a year worse off. They would need a one-off rise in earnings of 15 per cent to recover these losses, equivalent to 7 years of steady 2% pay rises or a 5 hour increase in the second earner’s weekly working time."
    • "A middle earning dual-earner couple without children where both earn £15 an hour will be £350 better off as a result of increases in personal tax allowance."

    For a bit more detail:

    Resolution Foundation estimates
  203. The bookies are always the first to know...*

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    *(Often not in fact true)

  204. Osborne and the leadership

    James Clayton, Newsnight Political producer

    Much has been made of this budget being a “one nation” or “blue collar” budget. But Osborne’s flagship policy on the living wage is more than just a Conservative offer to lower income voters.

    Many believe that come 2018 there will be a straight fight for who will become Conservative leader and de facto Prime Minister - between George Osborne and Boris Johnson. Bo Jo has gone hard on the London living wage. He could see the benefits of introducing the wage, but also how it would soften his own image as an Etonian toff – defending the wages of the low paid.

    One Tory MP tells me that the surprise living wage announcement has helped Osborne neuter one of Boris’ key USPs. Osborne’s relentless targeting of the “Northern powerhouse” and now “working people” is starting to gain traction – and he will use this as a totemic policy in his own leadership run.

    George Osborne
  205. Chancellor changes mind over living wage

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    Number 10 is cock-a-hoop with its living wage announcement and sources say this was something the Chancellor has been looking at for a couple of years but felt he couldn't go for without big cuts to the welfare bill, and those were blocked within the last parliament by the Lib Dems. Free of those shackles, he was able to go for the two step - cuts to welfare, and an increase in the living wage.

    Except over the years I have covered these issues, some would suggest to me that they would push the living wage idea in meetings and he was always a bit reluctant. On Newsnight we broke the story in August 2013 that George Osborne would be recommending an increase in the minimum wage - a story because the Tory party has traditionally been opposed to increases in the minimum wage. To be fair to Osborne he went for that in a big way. But then it was a source of great surprise and irritation to many Tories that once he had announced this, he then proceeded to rarely mention it. Why not shout it from the rooftops, they would ask?

    One Tory MP told me today that it is fair to say the Chancellor "needed some persuading" on this policy. However they also said that they went in to Number 11 over a year ago to discuss a hike in the minimum wage to nearer a living wage. That he had been considering it as long back as that and certainly not just in recent weeks. They said that it is only in the last few years that the evidence has built up that it could be done without damaging businesses too badly. 

    Credit must go to the renewal group of MPs - Sajid Javid, Rob Halfon and Guy Opperman. Director of the Renewal group - pushing for more Tory policies designed to appeal to blue collar workers, David Skelton too. Minister of State for Skills, Matt Hancock too should get a lot of kudos for persuading the Chancellor of this move.  

    George Osborne
  206. Marking universities

    Are no two of them alike?

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Students celebrating

    The Budget has a lot to digest within it, but one morsel worth chewing over is the section on universities. The government has, asLaura Kuenssberg suggested it might, replaced grants with maintenance loans. 

    But the document may also mark an important intellectual shift in the way that we run our higher education system, as it will introduce a rather radical idea: different universities deserve very different treatment.

    The government says that will allow institutions "offering high teaching quality to increase their tuition fees in line with inflation from 2017-18". That, itself, is a big thing. 

    Lots of universities will be surprised that ministers accepted their argument that they need higher fees so readily. But the notion of attaching fee rises to teaching quality is also a big idea.

    I’d written before about how, even if there were no money attached,teaching assessment could change universities. Adding the right to higher fees would make it transformational.

    But, this process will be hotly contested. It requires the sector to agree on what good teaching is and how we can spot it. There are difficult practical questions: how to judge universities that take in students with weaker academic results against those with better grades. 

    And what about universities with specialisms in, say, teaching or nursing? Unlike most schools, universities are specialist bodies and are supposed to offer different services. 

    If this is done properly, this process should lead to some results that are politically awkward. We know that courses at lots of less-glamorous institutions deliver excellent teaching: it’s their main business. 

    Meanwhile, some grand old institutionsshouldfind that they are barred from fee rises because they do not prioritise teaching. Some of the reports I hear from students about contact time and attention are mortifying.

    Will this process be institution-wide? Will Warwick’s maths faculty be assessed separately to its historians? If so, there is alotof work to do before fees can be assessed in 2017-18. 

    The incentives for academics to improve their courses might be weakened if they all think there is no point since they think the academics in other faculties are duff.

    Finally, this process opens up a Pandora’s Box: “differentiation”. If universities can be split into groups for fee levels, can they be split for immigration, say? With “top” institutions able to import a bigger quota of foreign students than weaker ones? 

    That is an idea that the Home Office has sought to press on several occasions. It is one that universities have fought off. Ministers, however, may be flanking them.

  207. George's lesson in Budget communication

    Why deficit details can be ditched

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    As a prelude to reading this post have a look at two potential political pictures and slogans. I've put the slogans in as captions.

    NHS picture
    Image caption: £8bn more to fund our NHS!
    Complicated graph
    Image caption: A more frontloaded path to budget surplus!

    Which do you think is more memorable? And which is easier to understand?

    In the election period, the politically focussed media likes details. Lots and lots of details. Details on spending plans, details on taxation plans, details on little tiny things that are almost impossible to predict like what our forecast revenues are going to be in 2020.

    We feast on them. Withdrawal rates, DEL/AME splits, Newsnight and journos like us obsess over these things. And sometimes we get some of them - and we use them as a measuring stick in elections for the credibility of a party's plans. In a sense, rightfully so - details make a big difference to people's lives. The problem is, as that second picture shows, they're rather difficult to communicate to people.

    Today George Osborne changed perhaps the biggest detail of all - the shape of the Government's fiscal envelope. In non jargon terms, how much the government spends and when. Having spent the whole of the election tearing strips off Labour's spending plans, they've adjusted their own to look a bit more like them. He has ended the "rollercoaster" highlighted by the IFS and others.

    But what he didn't change was the promised NHS £8bn. Or the tax cuts. Why do you think that was? I suggest that it's something to do with the answer to the question I posed at the beginning. Promises on the NHS are big, tangible - they make a direct emotional connection to something that the electorate can understand easily. They have nice pictures. Promises on the shape of spending cuts are abstract, technical, and difficult to remember. They are illustrated with charts like this:

    Complicated graph
    Image caption: George's changing priorities

    That's why George Osborne keeps his promises on the NHS. And why he was so happy to give the media such a detailed statement in March about his fiscal intentions that I suspect he never intended to stick to - and didn't. 

  208. Living Wage Foundation weighs in

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Apropos of my post earlier asking whether this is a real living wage the Living Wage Commission has waded in with a press release in the last few minutes:

    “Is this really a Living Wage? The Living Wage is calculated according to the cost of living whereas the Low Pay Commission calculates a rate according to what the market can bear. Without a change of remit for the Low Pay Commission this is effectively a higher National Minimum Wage and not a Living Wage."

    From the horse's mouth...

  209. Newsnight experts rate the Budget

    Here's the instant Newsnight take on the Budget from our experts.  Political Editor, Allegra Stratton, presenter Evan Davis, Economics Correspondent, Duncan Weldon and Policy Editor, Chris Cook give us their view below:   

    View more on youtube
  210. Cutting the deficit

  211. A living wage?

    Not if you're under 25

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    During the election campaign Ed Miliband made a big announcement on the National Minimum Wage (NMW). He pledged that under Labour it would rise to more than £8 an hour by 2019. The Conservatives decried it- now George Osborne has gone one better and announced an increase to £9 an hour by 2019.

    But what would the difference be if the Chancellor had not left it to the people who set it at the moment? The Low Pay Commission (who every year make a recommendation as to what rate the minimum wage should be) have had a consistent record of recommending increases since it was established back in the late 1990s.

    Indeed, over the past decade the average rate of increase has been 2.9% a year. Before 2008 it was over 5% a year.

    So if we already take as a given the twenty pence increase pencilled in for October this year which the government has already approved, if the minimum wage increased at that average every year, what would it end up as?

    Current rate (for adults): £6.50

    2016: £6.70

    2017: £6.89

    2018: £7.09

    2019: £7.30

    So we would probably expect the minimum wage to reach £7.30 at least. If the rate increased at pre-2008 levels (which the Chancellor has indicated he wants) then it would reach nearly £8. The extra £1 will be most welcome but we should remember that's what we're talking about.

    Also let's not forget that what the Chancellor announced is NOT the living wage as prescribed by the Living Wage Commission. In London the living wage is already at £9.15 an hour in London and is £7.85 outside of London so will doubtless be higher than £9 by 2019. The Chancellor has announced an increase in the National Minimum Wage coated in language pinched from the Living Wage campaign. 

    And there's another sting in the tail. Presently the living wage is set precisely by talking into account of benefits like tax credits. If you reduce in-work benefits, you must increase the living wage.

    Indeed according to calculations by the Mayor of London's economic advisers:  "If means-tested benefits were not taken into account (that is, tax credits, housing benefits and council tax benefits) the [London] Living Wage would be approximately £11.65 per hour." Given that the £7.20 next year or even the £9 by 2019 looks a little small beer.

    Also for under 25s the current rate will remain, potentially opening yet another chasm between the young and their older counterparts. 

  212. Politics behind the living wage

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Just before the General Election, a Conservative voter said to me “I wouldn’t mind a tax hike from the Conservatives. But I wouldn’t take it from Labour. If the Conservatives get in, they can basically introduce Labour policies and no one would bat an eyelid.”

    Today, that just happened. The minimum wage – introduced by Labour under Tony Blair has just been rebranded and rebooted. George Osborne has effectively left the independent Low Pay Commission behind, and gone solo on this one, announcing a hike to nine pounds an hour in the living wage – by 2020 – that’s a pound more than Labour promised at the last election.

    The phrase living wage was introduced to explain that for many parts of the country, a minimum wage still didn’t guarantee you the ability to be able to afford the city you lived in, even modestly. Its become a rather cuddly phrase – one that suggests there’s more to life than existence, there is "living" – even though we’re not exactly talking la dolce vita on these sums. And ( compassionate) Conservatives will be delighted to hear that phrase tripping off the Chancellor’s lips just moments after he just used up cuddly capital over welfare cuts to larger families.

    The fact that a Conservative Chancellor can essentially nick a Labour idea, improve on it – (for workers) – and still manage to sell it to business, is the thing that really leaves Labour in a hole. If Labour had suggested such a rise, you would have heard screams of anguish from employers up and down the country. The fact that it’s George Osborne – the man business has come to see as pretty much on their side – means you can expect any backlash to be relatively subdued.

    The bigger question is whether this is really a rise as such. Some will argue he’s taking the living wage down in London this year – by around 60 pence an hour. And some will tell you that by 2020,  nine pounds will be far from a living wage. The economics of this policy will take more than a day to digest. But politically, it’s a very sharp move.

    George Osborne
  213. Will 'loosen' spending squeeze

  214. Defence gets 2% of GDP

  215. Personal Tax Allowance

    Not as progressive as you think

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Everyone is still in a bit of a state of shock after the Chancellor's announcement on his new "Living Wage". But let's take a look at the other big measure designed to improve the lot of worse off workers.

    The personal tax allowance has increased by around £5,000 since 2010. The problem it is it yields diminishing returns in terms of helping the poor.

    As the graph from the IPPR thinktank below shows, in fact under the projected increases, the poorer you are the less you benefit. Worth bearing in mind.

    IPPR
  216. Living wage policy

  217. A brief history of Sunday shopping

    Lewis Goodall, BBC Newsnight producer

    Shoppers with lots of bags

    In a French novel from the 1950s a retired British army officer said "If England had not been invaded since 1066, it is because foreigners dread having to spend a Sunday there." It was perhaps this feeling that Conservative minister Anna Soubry was referring to earlier this week.

    It's hard to believe now, but before the introduction of the Sunday Trading Act in 1994 virtually no shops of any size opened in the UK - although many did illegally. Indeed, on the 28 August 1994, only three major stores actually took advantage of the act and opened, Marks & Spencers, Waitrose and House of Fraser (the first two had themselves opposed the change).

    And yet this ostensibly trifling issue of whether or not the government should allow shops to open as they do every other day of the week has actually been one of the most contentious in post-war British politics. After the introduction of the 1950 Shops Act there were no fewer than 26 attempts to reform it and liberalise shop opening hours. Each and everyone was defeated - most notably an attempt by the Thatcher government in 1986, her only defeat in the Commons.

    Having finally decided to repeal, the Chancellor will be bringing to an end some 1,700 years worth of Sunday restrictions, indeed since the year 321, when Emperor Constantine decreed that Christianity was the official religion of the Roman Empire. It's not known whether the Emperor was a Conservative or not.

  218. Non-doms: now and then

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    George Osborne has just announced a change to rules on non-doms. It's a bit different to Labour's plan they unveiled in the election campaign but it's very much in a similar vein. 

    At the time the Chancellor said Labour was "tinkering around the edges" and that "Labour's non-dom plan is a total shambles." Maybe it was Ed Miliband's only legacy, after all.

  219. Non-Doms

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  220. Budget bingo anyone?

    Lewis Goodall, BBC Newsnight producer

    Yes it's that time of year. Again. Oh and again. A special double edition of budget bingo this year. So it's time to dust down your dabbers and eyes down for a full house (especially if you're in a housing association property).

    Budget bingo grid

    Winner to receive a thousand copies of this commemorative edition box:

    Danny Alexander
    Image caption: Danny Alexander's old Lib Dem budget box
  221. Winners and losers under housing benefit cap

    Ed Brown, BBC Newsnight Producer

    George Osborne is expected to announce a lower benefits cap for areas outside of London today - of £20,000 as opposed to £23,000.

    Why discriminate?

    To illustrate why, I've ordered local authority data on the housing benefit cap by number of households that have had their housing benefits cap since the benefit caps introduction.

    So, the first 100 authorities or so - the ones least affected - are here:

    Table showing number of households with housing benefits capped

    Doesn't look so bad does it?

    How about the second hundred authorities?

    Another table showing number of households with housing benefits capped

    Still doesn't look too bad does it? George Osborne's own constituency local authority is nestled in this group with a relatively low 111.

    But here's the last hundred. See if you can spot London (I have even given you a subtle hint):

    Table 3 of housing benefits cap

    Not surprising to anyone that's compared the prices of bedsits in Bermondsey and Barnsley recently. But if Osborne does protect London from a lower benefits cap, this chart tells you why.

  222. Winners and losers under housing benefit cap

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    George Osborne is expected to announce a lower benefits cap for areas outside of London today – of £20,000 as opposed to £23,000. 

    Why discriminate? To illustrate why, I’ve ordered local authority data on the housing benefit cap by number of households that have had their housing benefits cap since the benefit caps introduction. 

    So, the first 100 authorities or so - the ones least affected - are here:

    Housing benefit cap chart

    Doesn’t look so bad does it?

    How about the second hundred authorities?

    Housing benefit cap chart

    Still doesn’t look too bad does it? George Osborne’s own constituency local authority is nestled in this group with a relatively low 111. But here’s the last hundred. See if you can spot London (I have even given you a subtle hint):

    Housing benefit cap chart

    Not surprising to anyone that’s compared the prices of bedsits in Bermondsey and Barnsley recently. But if Osborne does protect London from a lower benefits cap, these charts tell you why.  

  223. The island of Malta could be the big winner from the budget…

    James Clayton, Political Producer

    BBC
    Image caption: Valletta, Malta

    One of the more idiosyncratic policies that will be announced in the budget tomorrow is a £10,000 annuity ‘thank you’ for anyone who has won a Victoria Cross or George Cross.

    This is up from the current figure of £2,129 and will be paid for with penalties levied by the Financial Conduct Authority.

    This is a pretty big deal for those 28 people who have earned the award - and are alive. It’s particularly good news for the younger winners, who could now have a pretty large annuity for life. Lance Sergeant Johnson Beharry for example is only 36. If you won the award posthumously, well, you get nothing.

    And then we come to loophole in this policy. The Island of Malta. The country has a George Cross for their manful defiance during the siege of Malta in the Second World War. Bizarrely the Government may now pay the country the £10,000 annuity, forever..

  224. Looking back

    Economics Correspondent Duncan Weldon is in no way saying "I told you so," but...

  225. 7/7 remembered - "A scene of medieval carnage"

    Alex Campbell

    Newsnight producer

    Lord Blair, the Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police at the time of the 7/7 bombings, spoke to Newsnight ahead of the 10th anniversary of the atrocity.

    Recalling the police’s efforts in the face of “medieval carnage”, he revealed how officers boarded the bomb-torn bus to reach the dead and dying – despite fears of another live explosive. 

    He also described balancing his role as head of police with the knowledge that his own son was travelling in London as news of the explosions reached Scotland Yard. 

    Asked about contemporary efforts to tackle extremism, Lord Blair cautioned against taking a tougher stance on fundamentalism, adding: “Some people might argue we must take a much tougher approach but I couldn’t agree less with them. We have to take a very resolute approach… But you don’t do it to them, you do it with them.” 

    The full interview is online here. 

    View more on youtube
  226. Out of credit - bad news for big families

    Parents of more than two children to lose tax credits

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    Gillian Wearing's statue Real Birmingham Family
    Image caption: Don't count on any tax credits baby

    Three weeks ago I reported that George Osborne was considering dramatic cuts to tax credits as the centrepiece of his promised £12bn of welfare cuts.

    Tonight I understand that the cuts to tax credits will affect families with more than two children and will apply to so-called "flow" not "stock" - that is new families coming into the future system rather than those families already in the system.

    So for instance a mother of three earning above the tax credit threshold, whose salary later fell below the threshold, would only receive tax credits for two of her children. The Treasury believes this move will save £1.4 bn.

    The chancellor was persuaded to limit the change to tax credits by those in Downing Street who couldn't see how he could cut some £5bn from the £30bn tax credit budget and not hurt working families. The deep concern inside Number 10 since entering government is how the government can claim to be "one nation" Tories while taking away money from families in work.

     Osborne will also ease the initial pain of the benefit cuts by slowing the pace at which they are made. The £12bn cuts were due to bite by 2017-18; my understanding is that they’ll now be done by 2018-19.    

    Tory insiders are are confident they will not pay any serious political price for backsliding on their cuts timetable. They point out that there is nobody out there who will attack them - the Labour party is in partial disarray, and actually if they had ploughed ahead influential newspapers like the Sun were gearing up to make their lives very difficult for them.

  227. Could a Greek deal be close?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Brussels

    Another topsy turvy day and the heads of government meeting is only just beginning. The anger about the lack of detailed proposals seems to have simmered away - although there's still a sense that time and trust have been wasted. The French in particular may be a little bruised that their diplomatic push wasn't followed through by Greece today.

    Brussels is currently experiencing an outbreak of "deal optimism". That's driven by three things: the Italian PM saying a deal is close, previously hardline Eurogroup Finance Ministers saying the meeting was productive and the Greek presentation was well received and clarity on the timetable ahead.

    Tomorrow Greece will formally request a third bailout programme in a letter with technical proposals. The Eurogroup will discuss that on a conference call and then the institutions (the IMF, the ECB and the Commission) will formally assess the technical details. At that point negotiations can formally begin.

    All of that process should provide the ECB to keep the banks alive whilst talks continue, removing one imminent  threat to the Greek economy.  A deal would still require big moves from Greece or the creditors or both. But if Grexit felt like a 65/35 chance a few hours ago it's swung back to 50/50 now. That could of course change again!

    It's hard to see how a deal could be finalised before the crucial ECB payment due on the 20th July. One way forward might be a (very) short term bridging loan to tide Greece over whilst a deal is finalised. That could be a subject the leaders will discuss further tonight.

    EU Commission building and flags
  228. What's in the Budget tomorrow?

    James Clayton, Newsnight Political producer

  229. No new proposals from Greeks

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Brussels

    There seem to be no new Greek proposals today to break the debt crisis at the Eurozone leaders talks in Brussels. Here's the latest from Duncan Weldon at the talks:

    View more on youtube
  230. Greek 'no triumphalism' talks note revealed

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Brussels

  231. Remembering Srebrenica

    Mark Urban

    Newsnight Defence and Diplomatic Editor

    Srebrenica 1996
    Image caption: Dutch UN troops on the day Srebrenica fell

    The standard response of many to an inconvenient truth is lies and evasion. Twenty years after the worst war crime in Europe of recent decades, the awful truth is accepted by almost everyone. Following the extradition of General Ratko Mladic, the architect of what happened, to the Hague in 2011 to face war crimes charges even hard-line Bosnian Serbs seemed to give up arguing.

    Yet in the months following the overwhelming of a so-called UN Safe Area by General Mladic's forces in July 1995 all manner of lies and excuses were deployed. Pretty quickly though attention started to focus on a list compiled by the International Red Cross of more than 3,000 men who had been taken prisoner by Bosnian Serb forces but whose whereabouts could not be established. Over time it has become clear that thousands more were murdered following the Serb victory, but since these had not been recorded by the Red Cross as captured, it took longer for these 5,000 or so additional cases to be logged.

    Among the first journalists to travel into Srebrenica following the war's end, the Newsnight team was anxious to gather clear proof of what had happened. We use footage taken by a Serb cameraman from a Belgrade TV station of Bosnian men taken into captivity; there could be no argument that they were alive at that point. We then traced the men, found their families and asked if they had ever reappeared. We also went to places where two survivors of the massacres conducted by Serb forces described what had happened to them, in search of evidence.

    View more on youtube

    The resulting film transmitted seven months after the massacres is not easy viewing, and even today the testimony it contains moves me to tears. 

    As time went on the evidence clarified and it also became more evident that the UN system had itself failed horribly at Srebrenica. We already understood, even in early 1996, that the Dutch troops tasked with protecting people in Srebrenica had hardly been able to make use of Nato airpower in defence of the 'Safe Area' and something smelt very bad about that.

    Over time a series of inquiries in the Netherlands and elsewhere established more and more compromising details about the UN's failure. It was a stark indictment of the entire international community's involvement in the Balkans wars.

    In 2009 Newsnight producer Maria Polachowska, who had worked with me on the 1996 film, teamed up with reporter Olenka Frenkiel on a new Srebrenica investigation for the programme. On this 20th anniversary this film also should be watched as a reminder of how complex international mandates, evolved by countries that want to be seen to be helping but are actually rather risk averse, can crumble under pressure from ruthless belligerents.   

    View more on youtube
  232. Debt relief not on today's agenda

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Brussels

  233. Where is the new Greek proposal?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Brussels

  234. Decision time for Greece

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Brussels

    Here, the Greeks will present a new offer to their creditors and the question is: will they take it? Time in running out for Greece, the ECB is tightening the squeeze on the banks.

    The situation is now binary: either a deal is done (and soon) or Greece leaves. The old third scenario, that prolonged crisis leads to the fall of the Syriza government and the establishment of a more Troika-friendly administration has fallen by the wayside since Sunday's vote.

    It's now decision time for Greece and decision time for the Eurozone.

    EU and Greek flag
    Image caption: Time is running out for a Greek deal with EU leaders
  235. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 7th July

    Stories today include crunch talks between the Eurozone leaders and Greece. Deal or no deal today? We will also be looking at the changing nature of the terror threat ten years on from 7/7. There will also be a lookahead to the Budget tomorrow.

  236. Tax credit tricks?

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    The big Budget question in Westminster this week is how the government cuts tax credits - as much as £5bn from a £30bn tax credits budget - without unleashing mega pain on working people. Here on Newsnight we broke the news of this some weeks ago now and since then there has only been confirmation from senior tories as high as the PM and chancellor that this is what they are going to do. But I have a feeling about this… twinkles in the eyes of Treasury sources suggest something more is going on. 

    Sure, there is an attraction for Tories in cutting back the Gordon Brown regime of tax credits… George Osborne said as much in his interview on Andrew Marr yesterday. But they’ll want a trick. The new chair of the work and pensions committee, Labour’s Frank Field, agrees with them that the tax credits regime should be cut… how would he do it? 

    Like Osborne he would tie it to productivity. Field would stagger these cuts to tax credits over the five year period of this parliament - allowing firms to plan how they are going to increase their employee’s wages. He would turn the Low Pay Commission which currently sets the minimum wage into a fair pay commission. He would then task that commission with setting fairer pay in a variety of industries. The key to low pay is that is actually not too strenuous for banks and big finance to pay living wages because they actually don’t have that many low paid employees. But it is harder for the retail sectors with more low paid employees. 

    But the key thing is how to get these firms investing in the skills of their staff in order to beef up Britain’s productivity levels. Field would incentivise firms to pay a higher wage through cutting the level of national insurance contributions they make. Field would tie this cut in national insurance contributions to the amount of training they have to give employees. More training means more skills and so output per hour would go up.  

    I don’t think the government will necessarily go down this route… but the key question is what route they will go down. How does the government cut back tax credits, while also reshaping low paid Britain?  

  237. BBC funding and the over 75s

    Whittingdale tells it straight

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Most of the time you ask an urgent question and and expect a fudged answer. This time was different. 

    Chris Bryant stood up in Parliament today and asked John Whittingdale, the Culture Secretary, about the truth of rumours that the BBC would be forced to shoulder the cost of free TV  licences for the over 75s. Yes, said Whittingdale. The BBC will start to take it over in 2018 and it will happen gradually. Full costs will be met by 2020-21. 

    Mr Whittingdale made clear he wants to see the BBC reducing its "over reliance" on the tax payers - that means the BBC will have to find £650 million of its budget to cover those costs. But he also said the licence fee will be modernized to include catch up services. The licence fee will go up in line with the Consumer Price Index - as long, he warned, as the BBC demonstrates it is undertaking serious cuts. 

    There's lots to unpick. Why wouldn't you just cut the licence fee rather than shifting it to include the free offer to the over 75s? Why would you increase the fee in line with CPI ? And how much will the modernized licence fee - including iPlayer - bring in to a service now grappling with thousands of job cuts?

    The curious thing is the timing. Everyone was expecting this to come in the budget. And to come from the chancellor. The fact that it has come two days early will leave many wondering what the political game is at stake.  

    I have just  interviewed the former culture secretary Ben Bradshaw who called the decision by the government  to ask the BBC to take on the free licence fee for the over 75s the "outsourcing of social policy". He said it looked like it would be "used as a substitute for treasury public spending " when George Osborne was faced by the need for big spending cuts in Wednesday's budget.

    And he said to present the deal without putting it before parliament first was  "overriding democracy and the independence of the BBC". The charter, he added," belongs to the British people, not the Conservatives. "

    So where does this leave the BBC in terms of the choices it is allowed to make ? John Nicolson of the SNP questioned whether the BBC would be able to means test TV licences for the over 75s.

    The Culture Secretary told him that there was " a very clear commitment in the Conservative manifesto.... That would be honoured throughout this parliament". But that the BBC had requested to take on responsibility for  that policy over the next parliament".

    Rough calculations suggest the cost to the BBC - when you include a modernized licence fee and a rise in line with CPI will be flat. So who is really paying here?

    BBC Broadcasting House
  238. Tories press home the advantage

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Old habits die hard. After months of poring over the sub-data of opinion polls, the "only poll that matters" (©every politician ever) rendered all of that a big, fat waste of time. 

    But, two months on, even though the polling industry is still scratching their heads to work out what went wrong, aComRes pollout on Friday intrigued me enough to dip my toe back in the water.

    The headline result was interesting enough in its own right. The Conservatives were on 41%, Labour on 27%. This follows a quite well established phenomenon in polling where people like to associate themselves with the winning party and disassociate themselves from the "losers". Indeed, this is often the explanation for the polling quirk where more people say they voted for a party retrospectively than actually did. 

    But what about the nuggets within sub-sets? First off, two important health warnings. Firstly, the sample sizes can get very small and margins of error very big at this level. Secondly, the whole credibility and accuracy of polling in this country is still in the balance.

    However, with that in mind:

    • Women now decisively back the Tories (42%)
    • Men are really out of love with Labour (24%)
    • Labour are doing well in the North (40%) but badly everywhere else (their 24% in the marginal-rich Midlands is particularly poor)
    • The most shocking (and most deserving of caution because of sample size) finding is that the Tories are now way ahead of Labour in Scotland (28% to 13%)
    • The theory that the Lib Dems have reached rock bottom might be optimistic. According to this poll, they are only holding on to 75% of their 2015 vote. 13% of it has gone to the Tories and 5% to Labour. This might be explained by the "loser contagion" factor mentioned above.
    • On a related note, following the Lib Dem collapse, the South-West seems to have become an impregnable Tory fortress. They have 63% of the vote there, which makes the SNP's 50% in Scotland look a bit underwhelming by comparison.

    Both Labour and the Lib Dems are in a state of paralysis as they choose their new leaders, leaving the field to the Tories to make all the political running. If they can each pick a new leader with a style and message that voters like and/or if the Conservative run into problems, then all of this could change very quickly.

    To cite a lesson from history, the first opinion polls following the Tories' surprise election victory in 1992 put the party on 45%, with pundits predicting the imminent demise of the Labour Party. We all know how that ended.  

    Tony Blair celebrating in 1997
  239. If Jeremy Corbyn has a surge and nobody measures it, does it exist?

    Ask an 18th century bishop

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Bear with me here as I pay tribute to Bishop Berkeley, an 18th century philosopher. To horribly oversimplify, Berkeley thought that things only existed when someone or thing was perceiving them. This led to a problem commonly presented as: if a tree grows but nobody sees it, does it exist? 

    I thought of Bishop Berkeley as I heard speculation that Jeremy Corbyn's campaign for the Labour Leadership was going great guns after the endorsement he received from Unite the Union. This, some good hustings receptions, and a lot of overexcited tweeting leads to speculation that Jeremy Corbyn is doing much better than he was expected to in the Labour Leadership race.   

    Thing is, nobody actually really knows how well the Labour Leadership race is going. Because nobody has, as far as I am aware, asked the actual electorate in this race (Labour members and registered supporters) what they think. 

    Yes, there 's been a poll putting Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper as the front runners - but, crucially, this was of Labour voters rather than Labour members. And it was a tiny sample at that. More often we are left with such scientific delights as the 143 sample poll of the Socialist Health Association's members (guess who they liked? Clue: it wasn't Liz Kendall)

    The "feel" of how audiences react at hustings might give the candidates some idea. But again, it's not hard to imagine that this is a bit of a skewed sample - presumably these will be the most enthusiastic, engaged voters, but their votes mean nothing more than the disengaged, unenthusiastic ones that stayed at home. One can imagine these two groups of people might vote differently.

    Finally, Twitter. On this, I would merely point out that if sheer volume of tweeting was a decent predictor of electoral outcomes, Labour wouldn't be having this leadership election at all. They'd be in Government.

    Which brings us back to Bishop Berkeley. If Jeremy Corbyn's support grows but nobody measures it, can we really state that it has grown at all?

    Bishop Berkeley said that God was perceiving everything anyway. So that solved the tree. 

    Unfortunately, neither we, nor the Labour Leadership candidates have the luxury of being infinite and all-perceiving. That means we're stuck with our own perceptions and measurements. And right now, they are at best blurry, and at worst utterly baseless.

    Jeremy Corbyn's support may well be growing. But those that want to know for sure are going to have to wait for the election itself. Or ask God.

    Margaret Thatcher next to a tree
    Image caption: If an atheist perceives Margaret Thatcher next to a tree, does Jeremy Corbyn exist?
  240. Labour has 'gone to sleep since election' says Mandelson

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Lord Mandelson
    Image caption: Lord Mandelson

    Former Business Secretary, Peter Mandelson has told Newsnight the Labour party has retreated from the difficult thinking needed to rehabiliate its fortunes: “Everyone said in the first 24 or 48 hours  after our defeat this year, oh my God we’ve really got to think radically and overhaul and realise where we went wrong. Since then the Labour Party seems to have gone back to sleep somewhat. You know, that sort of awful complacency, that sort of desire not to make difficult choices, or take difficult decisions that might be inconvenient for the Labour Party or create some tension or division, no, let’s leave that alone, let’s hope that a new face at the top will simply get us back to where we want to be. It won’t. It won’t.”

    In an interview for Newsnight to mark the 70th anniversary of the 1945 general election, Lord Mandelson,  who was one of the architects of New Labour warns that Labour will never win again until it has readjusted its policies to fit with a new age: “You have to think with each successive era, particularly after the spectacular defeat we’ve just had, what new, what different what improved is required to enable us to win next time. And until and unless the Labour Party faces up to that as they did stupendously in 1945  and again subsequently, until we do that, we won’t win.”

    Mandelson's grandfather was Herbert Morrison, the Deputy Prime Minister in Attlee’s 1945 Labour administration. Newsnight will also be speaking to Labour politicians present at the time and since, including Lord Healey, Lord Carrington and Lord Hutchinson, amongst others on its legacy and what the party can learn as it faces a new leadership election.

    You can see the interview below. You can watch the film in full tonight on Newsnight at 10.30pm BBC2.

    View more on youtube
  241. Why Greece voted 'No'

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    A Greek polling station yesterday
    Image caption: A Greek polling station yesterday

    All around Athens, OXI posters, which means No, adorn pillars, billboards, shopfronts, windows, anywhere there is space it seems. If the referendum vote had been decided purely on the vigour of the poster campaign, the result would have been much easier to predict than the polls suggested. Despite predictions of  a neck and neck result, in the end it was a thumping majority for those who wanted to reject the EU's offer. 

    But Yiati, or why? Talking to people in Athens today who voted No the big message is "we've had enough". One volunteer at a health centre this morning told me "It was our chance to stand up", after being "terrorized" by the Yes campaign. The doctor there, at the clinic that was boiling hot, crammed, staffed only by volunteers and able to prescribe only donated drugs told me,"I don't think it will be better, but it will be better for our dignity".  

    It's clear for many people the decision to vote No, 61 percent of them, was not about the economics of what might happen, not about the risk of leaving the Eurozone, but about the damage that five years of cuts and chaos has already done that has left them willing to take a gamble that Syriza might be able to get a better deal from the rest of the Eurozone.  And it was a chance to send a message to the rest of the world that Greece still has pride, and the ability to influence its own fate, even if the eventual outcome does harm. 

    It is easy today to sound defiant perhaps, easy to feel that telling Brussels and the IMF to go hang was the right thing to do. But it solves none of Greece's fundamental problems, and whether it will give Syriza more leverage in the coming days to get a deal that relieves the debt is unclear. Early signs this afternoon suggest Tsipras the Prime Minister may offer his fellow EU leaders a deal based on what Jean Claude Juncker was offering last week. Whether his mandate can stretch that far despite the convincing vote would be a gamble too. 

  242. How much would ditching online recipes save the BBC?

    Not very much

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    A quick note in addition to Marc Williams' post on BBC funding. Yesterday, George Osborne seemed to be suggesting to Andrew Marr that one of the areas that the BBC could save money was by reining back its "imperial ambitions" online. He suggested that "If you've got a website that's got features and cooking recipes - effectively the BBC website becomes the national newspaper as well as the national broadcaster".

    Perhaps, he seemed to be implying, this could go some way to balancing the books after the effective £650m cut of having to pay for free TV licenses for the over 75s.

    Let's put aside arguments over the sort of services it is appropriate for the BBC to provide - and just look at how much money it might save. The answer lies in this rather dull looking table in the BBC's annual accounts from 2014 (I have highlighted the relevant line in yellow):

    BBC annual accounts
    Image caption: BBC annual accounts

    Even if the BBC stopped funding Online entirely it would only save about £170m. Presumably if you just ditched the features and the cooking recipes the saving would be much less.

    And as Marc pointed out, it seems unlikely that in the short run revenues from requiring a license fee to watch iPlayer alone will make up this difference. As a rough figure, the drop in revenues since 2011, presumably at least partially because of people substituting free iPlayer for license fee paying live TV, has been about £150m.

  243. Has the BBC received a 'hospital pass?'

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Callum McManaman's tackle on Massadio Haidara

    There's a term in football called a "hospital pass". This is defined as "a pass to a player likely to be tackled heavily as soon as the ball is received."

    Following credible reports that George Osborne is going to offload the £650m annual cost of providing free TV licences to the over 75s, it seems that the Chancellor is about to give the BBC one of those hospital passes.

    Let's play a game of "good chart, bad chart" for the BBC, Let's start with the bad chart:

    Number of people over 75, UK

    This obligation is manifestly a demographic time bomb which will detonate at yearly interviews as the number of over 75s continues to grow over the next twenty years. Indeed, the number will nearly double in that period.

    So, what about the good chart? Here is BBC analysis of use of iPlayer by demographic.

    iPlayer use by demographic

    The quid pro quo for taking on the over 75s obligation is that the BBC might be allowed to charge for use of iPlayer. Here the demographics are working in the BBC's favour. At a time when linear television watching (and ownership) among 16-34s is in decline, iPlayer viewership among that same group has been stable. 

    Whether these people would continue to want to watch BBC content if they had to pay for it remains to be seen. However, at a time when the BBC is faced with a long-term existential threat to the licence fee, the short term hit (and it would be considerable) suffered by taking on the free licence fee cost might in the long run be offset by financially binding in a group of people who might otherwise disappear over the horizon, never to be seen again.

  244. Next steps in the Greek crisis

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    The morning after the night before, the Greeks have voted decisively no, the finance minister has resigned and the financial-diplomacy is moving quickly. 

    A dividing line is opening up in the Eurozone and it’s still unclear whether the decision to hold a referendum will be remembered as a masterstroke that unlocked debt relief or a desperate gamble that failed.Our Economics Correspondent Duncan Weldon sets out the options below:  

    View more on youtube
  245. Sue Lloyd Roberts finds a donor

    James Clayton, Newsnight Political producer

    The award winning Newsnight  and ITV journalist, Sue Lloyd Roberts has found a stem cell donor. Sue has an aggressive form of leukaemia. Sue said: “I was on a filming assignment in Westminster Abbey earlier this week and I thought I’d light a candle while I was there. Almost immediately afterwards, my phone went "ping" and it was an email from the hospital, telling me that there was a matching donor who was available to donate right away..."

    Sue added: "The donor, whoever it is, has come to my rescue just in time because I need to have the transplant before I slip out of remission. If the news had come any later or they’d not been available so quickly, it’s very likely I would have become too unwell to go through with the transplant.”

    BBC Director-General, Lord Hall last month opened up the BBC to the Anthony Nolan Trust to allow people to join the stem cell register.

    Sue expressed her thanks:“I am so grateful to everyone who signed up to the Anthony Nolan register after hearing my story, and to all my friends and colleagues for their support. Because of them, lives will be saved.”

    Sue Lloyd Roberts
    Image caption: Sue Lloyd Roberts
  246. What happens next in the Greek crisis?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    A defiant vote last night and today the Greeks are in the mood to compromise and do a deal. Tspiras's speech last night was restrained in its rhetoric and today the finance minister has gone (and his resignation makes clear that Tspiras regardless this as making a deal more likely).

     On Wednesday last week, in his letter to the creditors Tspiras conceded on almost all the major reform points (pensions, taxes, surpluses) in return for two years of financing, on Thursday the IMF argued that Greece needs debt relief. Add those reports together and the basis for a deal. That would be a deal on "economic reform in return for debt relief" and is likely to find support from the IMF, France and Italy. 

    The biggest block is the attitude of some more hardline creditors. They are weighing up the economic costs of a Grexit vs the political fallout of a Greek win. Decision time is tomorrow's summit. The ECB could bring the situation to a head earlier, but so far in this crisis it has made clear it is unwilling to force the issue and is waiting for a political decision.

    Today the key players are the French, they're insisting talks on debt are on the table and pushing for a deal. After years of German Eurozone leadership, this may prove decisive. Difficult days are ahead but nothing is set in stone yet.

    Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis
    Image caption: Greek Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis resigned this morning
  247. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 6th July

    We'll have the latest on the Greek debt crisis following the no vote in the referendum. We will also be previewing Wednesday's Budget.

  248. NHS delays Duchenne drug decision

    Katie Razzall

    Newsnight Special Correspondent

    Yesterday NHS England announced it won't approve early funding for a drug called Translana. Instead, it will leave the decision to NICE, which will review the drug and report back early next year. 

    It's a big blow to families like the ones I met for a report earlier this week. Translana is the first drug to target the underlying causes of Duchenne muscular dystrophy, a fatal genetic condition affecting mainly boys.  Joanne Fernandes, whose five-year-old son has Duchenne, told me they are in a "race against time". Only boys who are still mobile can take Translana. But this awful condition puts them in wheelchairs often long before their teens.

    Today she talked to me about her despair at the NHS England decision to delay. "The worst thing about it is the waiting. We've been waiting since January when we heard Luca could benefit from Translana. Now it'll be another eight months. These boys don't have time to wait. They will lose the opportunity to take advantage of the drug if a decision isn't taken soon."

    You can view Katie Razzall's powerful Newsnight report below: 

    View more on youtube
  249. Tsipras calls on voters to reject 'blackmail'

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    After a few chaotic days of campaigning ahead of the Greek referendum on the country's international bailout, the Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has again urged voters to reject what he called ultimatums and blackmail. In a television address, Mr Tsipras called on Greeks to reject the bailout proposal on Sunday.

    "Saying no to a non-viable solution does not mean breaking up with Europe, it means continuing the negotiation for better terms for Greece. I am calling upon you to say no to ultimatum, to blackmail, to the campaign of terror." 

    Greek voters will decide on Sunday whether they support the terms of further international loans, following months of tough talks with creditors. EU leaders have warned that a "no" vote could see Greece leave the Eurozone. Greece's economy is already under pressure after the country lost access to fresh funds. Banks have been shut and limits imposed on cash withdrawals.

    reek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
    Image caption: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras
  250. Cutting remarks from the Dalai Lama

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Dalai Lama interviewed by Emily Maitlis

    One of the jobs which frequently finds its way onto a Newsnight producer's desk is the "cutdown": taking a long-form interview or film and getting it down to a length that won't make a Newsnight running order burst at the seams (particularly on the half-hour Friday programme). 

    Helpfully, there are many occasions when this job practically does itself. If it's a politician, then there will often be oodles of hesitation, repetition or deviation which are a honeypot for possible edits. 

    But not always. This past Monday, I perched a couple of feet from the Dalai Lama in a hotel suite next to Heathrow Airport as Emily interviewed him for over an hour. A half hour cut of it is going out at 7pm this Sunday on BBC4, but the interview could easily have gone out in its entirety.

    For tonight on Newsnight, however, I had to get that down to a svelte eight minutes. The danger is clear: you condense or chop so much that nuance is sandpapered away and the dynamic between interviewer and interviewee is lost.

    There were plenty of lovely exchanges between Emily and the Dalai Lama which had to bite the dust so as to ensure that our audience tonight wouldn't feel like the interview ducked matters of substance. Terrible casualties of this included a story from his childhood about how a huge black camel disturbed him as he used the toilet and his views on Bradford City FC. Watch the BBC4 version if your interest is piqued.

    Here are the highlights of what made the cut:

    • He talks about whether he could be the last Dalai Lama. In his view, because the institution dates from feudal times, whether it continued or not after his death should depend on whether a majority of the Tibetan people support it;
    • He says that the new Chinese leadership is more “realistic” about Tibet and he sees hope for the future (although he does also say that “totalitarian regimes can be unpredictable”);
    • He defends himself against the accusations of Shugden Buddhists, saying that Shugden advocates sectarianism;
    • He talks with emotion about the terrorist attacks in Tunisia and how he believes the fact that ISIS members wear masks in their videos demonstrates that they know that what they are doing is wrong.
  251. Greece's desperate gamble

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Greece now faces a terrible choice and the Syriza government has found itself in a dreadful position. A yes vote will spell trouble to the government and, in the best case, lead to a deal which will lock in years more austerity in an already depressed economy.

    A no vote could quickly spiral into a euro exit and an (even more serious) economic crisis with bank failure, food and fuel shortages and a huge jump in unemployment. Whatever happens now, the economy is back in recession and times are tough. The banks are closed and whilst normal life goes on, things are getting tougher.

    The referendum due on Sunday feels less and less like a pre-planned move and more and more like a desperate gamble. So how did this happen? How did Syriza go from an electoral mandate, high hopes and much mainstream economic support to this total mess?

    On one level, their policy offer always seemed impossible: end austerity, get a debt write down and keep the euro was a combination that always seemed unlikely.  But with support for the Euro high, that's what they offered.  

    Fundamentally this seems to have been a huge strategic miscalculation. Syriza's economic-diplomacy was based on three assumptions. Three assumptions that have all been proved false. 

    First - contagion. The assumption was that the risk of a Grexit would see markets fretting that Portugal, Spain or even Italy would be next. The yield (or interest rate) on their sovereign bonds would rise as uncertainty increased.

    That hasn't happened. The markets have decided that what happens in Greece, stays in Greece. That's partly about the fact that Greece is now less financially interconnected into Europe, it's partly about the actions the ECB has taken to guarantee that the Euro can ride out a crisis but it's also about politics. The depression in Greece has been so severe, that an exact repetition of the events that brought Syriza to power seem less likely elsewhere.

    The effect of this is that Syriza thought that threatening Grexit was mutually assured destruction for them and the Eurozone. But instead it looks like a plan to blow yourself up if you don't get what you want.

    Secondly, Syriza assumed that the Greek economy was growing and that it was running a primary surplus (a budget surplus once interest payments are excluded).

    Traditionally debtors with a primary surplus have a strong hand. They can default on debts and, as the budget is balanced once interest is excluded, not need to borrow in the short term.

    Again, this hasn't been the case - the uncertainty over the future coupled with the severe liquidity squeeze on Greek banks imposed by the ECB has driven the economy into recession. The budget position is much worse than expected.

    Finally, they made political assumptions. They assumed Socialist and Social Democrat governments in countries like France and Italy would offer support. Early good relations here were hampered by amateurish diplomacy. Good will was quickly burned.

    They assumed that geopolitics would be a possibly decisive factor, that faced with cracks in European unity the U.S. would apply pressure for a deal. But whilst there has been some U.S. pressure it hasn't been enough.

    If one of these three assumptions had been correct, then the government's strategy might have had a chance of working, if two or all three had been right, they'd be in a strong position to win a good deal - keeping them in the Euro, writing down debt and winning strong concessions on their manifesto.

    The trouble is all three calculations have been proved wrong and yet they have carried on with a failing strategy regardless. Boxed into a corner, unable to implement their manifesto but unwilling to explain why to the Greek people - the referendum was their last resort. All three of Syriza's assumptions were reasonable but no plan survives contact with the enemy and their own lack of a fall back option has left them where they are today.

    Parthenon
  252. Hard decisions after Greek referendum

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Sunday's vote is unlike any democratic event I've encountered before. Organised in just over a week, the country's future hangs in the balance but an unpredictable way. The Council of Europe have already expressed serious concerns over the nature of the vote - and I can see their point. Asking a two paragraph long question (technically on a specific proposal which has already expired) is a strange way to seek a mandate from the people.

    The outcome of the referendum is obviously binary: yes or no. But the outcomes that flow from those are much more complicated. If it's a yes vote, we'd be likely to see ministers resigning and possibly either fresh elections or a rejigging of the current coalition.

    A deal with Europe could follow - but any deal needs to be done by the 20th July when a key payment to the ECB is due. If the ECB reacted to a yes vote and new talks well, then some of the pressure on the Greek banks would be relieved.

    But a yes doesn't mean a deal is easy. The specific offer the Greeks are voting on is gone. And many of the creditors will seriously distrust the ability of the Syriza government to implement a deal they campaigned against.

    A no, on the other hand, would take Greece closer to a Euro exit. The Government deeply dispute that - they argue that a no would give them a mandate for further talks. Some of the creditors sound happier to continue talks, but others are after a no vote, Greece would have shown an unwillingness to do a deal. They don't want to reward brinksmanship.

    What is clear is that the chance of a Grexit rises if the vote is no and declines if it's a yes. And by contrast the chance of the government surviving in its current form is higher under a no than a yes.

    Having now spent a good few weeks in Greece over the last month, I think there are two points worth making. The county feels divided - and this referendum isn't going to help with that. And secondly, for all the talk of Greece voting on its future, the central issue is being avoided.

    The real issue is that a substantial number of the Greek people want to both remain in the Euro and want a better deal from their creditors. That option, so far, hasn't been available. The forced choice - would you rather leave the Euro or keep with tough conditions - is still being avoided.

    Greek flag in front on Syntagma Square
  253. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 3rd July

    Stories today include the latest in the Greek debt crisis, and the future of children's charity, Kids Company.

  254. Post update

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  255. Fallon urges MPs to consider airstrikes against IS

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    The Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, has told MPs today that British air strikes on Syria won't take place unless there's a vote in favour of military action in the Commons. He says Britain should rethink its strategy if the killing of British tourists in Tunisia last week can be linked to the Syrian headquarters of the group calling itself Islamic State. 

    Earlier this year Newsnight Diplomatic Editor, Mark Urban got exclusive access to USS Carl Vinson; the aircraft carrier at the centre of operations against the so-called IS militants.You can watch his film below: 

    View more on youtube
  256. Latest on Greek referendum

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  257. Syria: a new strategy?

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Are we about to have a repeat of two years ago, when the government pressed MPs to back air strikes on Syria

    There are important differences to then – the idea here would be to target so-called Islamic State terrorists, rather than trying to bring down the Assad regime which was the intention two years ago. As such the idea is less controversial as its legality is clearer, the former Attorney General Dominic Grieve told me this morning it would be "perfectly legal" . Since then so-called IS has inspired attacks on British citizens, and in Western cities.

    But Conservative rebels and politicians like Paddy Ashdown are already questioning the strategy for one simple reason. Would it work, or make the situation worse? Ashdown told me this morning this is not time for yet another "kinetic response", and that a proper diplomatic coalition was the only solution, wondering aloud if we had learnt anything from military involvement in Iraq and Libya.

    Whether the idea is a good one however is not the only question worth asking today. Is the government certainly hoping to carry this out in any case? Michael Fallon, the Defence Secretary, is out making the case. Yet Number 10 this morning has been sounding a much more cautious tone, making it plain they believe "more time, more deliberation" is needed before the government even decides that they actually want to take the issue to Parliament.

    I asked one senior MP this morning if David Cameron had raised changing the strategy on air strikes? A clear "No" was the answer.  For the Defence Secretary, there’s no question that showing the UK still has a big role to play in the world is a priority. But is his boss clear yet this is the right way to go about it? Don’t be quite so sure.  

    IS fighters
  258. Will this banker pull the trigger on Greece?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Mario Draghi, President of the ECB
    Image caption: Mario Draghi, President of the ECB could force Greece out of the Euro

    The European Central Bank has found itself in a difficult position. The Greek government and its supporters accuse the ECB of a politically motivated attack on the Greek economy, of strangling the banks of liquidity and of failing to stem a bank run. For them the Bank has overstepped the mark from being a neutral custodian of the currency, to an active player in the negotiations trying to up the pressure on Greece.

    Meanwhile the Germans and others think the Bank has been too lenient on Greece. That it has extended too much support to a Greek banking system they see as insolvent and believe that by acting in this manner it has both prolonged the crisis by not forcing the Greeks' hand and built up dangerous level of exposure to a Greek default. 

    Attacked by both sides, I think it's hard not to conclude that the ECB is trying to do its job in incredibly  difficult circumstances. There is no legal way to throw a country out of the Euro, but the ECB could push the Greeks out if it wanted to. If it pulled support from the Greek banks, the Greek government would face a choice: watch the entire banking system collapse or leave the Euro and use freshly printed drachma to keep the banks afloat.

    My sense through out is that ECB President Mario Draghi wants to avoid making the choice. For him, Greece's future in the Euro is a decision for politicians, not for central bankers. He holds the gun in his hands, but won't pull the trigger until he has to - either once a political decision has been reached or, on the 20th July, if Greece misses a payment due to the ECB. Defaulting on the IMF was manageable for Greece, defaulting on the ECB wouldn't be.

  259. Making university teaching better

    How do you get more out of our professors?

    Jo Johnson and the Prime Minister
    Image caption: Jo Johnson and the Prime Minister

    I've written about a speech yesterday by Jo Johnson, the new universities minister. In it, he wrestles with quite a big problem. State-subsidised teaching is not reckoned to be that good in lots of institutions. But, at the same time, universities are jealous about guarding their liberties. So how do you square that circle? 

  260. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 2nd July

    Stories today include the latest in the Greek debt crisis, and the politics of airstrikes on IS in Syria.

  261. What happens next in the Greek debt crisis?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Greek flag on building in Athens

    A chaotic and confusing day in the Greek crisis. There have been two seemingly contradictory developments and hints at a third, possibly more important move. 

    This morning the Greeks made a new proposal to their creditors - they accept (with only two relatively minor changes) the conditions they walked away from last Friday as part of a two year financing programme tied to talks on debt relief.

    In terms of the specific measures this represents an almost total climb down from their position of the last few months. Syriza has transformed from "end austerity" to "implement austerity in a left wing redistributionary way" to "slightly tweak existing austerity". That's quite a journey in a matter of weeks.

    But it would be wrong to see it as a total capitulation. Rather than signing up to a deal for a few months they are asking for two years of certainty and they still want to reduce the debt burden on Greece. The Germans haven't accepted this. For them this weekend's referendum was seen as a deal breaker.

    So, as Athens waited for a Tsipras television address, the rumour mill went into action. Sources for several hours on the ground expected a cancellation of the referendum in order to a get a deal. Similar expectations came out of Brussels. But when Tspiras spoke, he stood firm to his referendum and his call for Greeks to vote no. He argued that a no vote wouldn't be a rupture with Europe but a chance for new talks.

    So the Greeks will vote on Sunday to reject or accept a deal that is no longer really available. If the result is yes, the government will almost certainly fall - although may then be re-elected! If it's a no, the Greeks say they'll keep talking but it's unclear if the appetite will be there from the creditors.

    And the question of whether that appetite will be there is the third possible development today. Both Italy and France seem much keener on resuming talks post the vote, than the Germans. The creditors may finally be splitting.

    Each side is now making calculations. The creditors this afternoon were faced with a cynical choice: do a deal with a government who do not really trust to implement it or reject it and push on to a referendum that could leave them out of power. Compromise or try for regime change.

     For Syriza, the cynical take is that the renewed efforts at compromise are driven by two factors: the desire to show willingness to engage in order to keep the ECB in a position where it doesn't feel the need to kill the Greek banks and to influence Sunday's vote. By arguing that a no vote isn't a vote for a Euro exit they can make that option seem less "dangerous". Of course, it may also be that elements in Syriza think that the game is up, their bluff has been called and are looking for a way back.

    So - what happens now? 

    Nothing is certain but two factors are in play. The Greek economy is being slowly strangled by capital controls and ultra weak banks. Almost of the fiscal and economic assumptions that the various plans are based on are out of date.

    And in the 20th July, if no deal is done then a payment to the ECB will be missed. At which point support for the Greek banks will be pulled and euro exit looks almost certain.In the three weeks until then a lot could change. But the apparent opening of a gap between the creditors suggests that even a no vote "could" be followed by more talks.

    Today was about politics and the longer the politics drag on, the worse things will get for the Greek economy.

  262. Tsipras says referendum will go ahead

    Duncan Weldon

    The Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has vowed to push ahead with a referendum on Sunday on whether Greece should accept budget cuts in exchange for European loans. Mr Tsipras has said he's willing to accept the deal proposed by creditors, but has added a number of conditions. Speaking in the last half hour, he accused the EU of being undemocratic and urged Greeks to vote "no" in the referendum.

     Here are Duncan Weldon's latest thoughts:

  263. Tspiras about to address nation on TV

    Jess Brammar, Newsnight producer in Athens

  264. Germany plays down talk of Greek deal

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    Germany's finance minister has urged Greece for greater clarity about what it wants from creditors before serious talks on a new bailout can take place. This follows newspaper reports today suggesting that Greece's Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, has made a fresh offer to his country's creditors.

    In a letter obtained by the Financial Times Mr Tsipras says he is now prepared to accept almost all of the conditions that were on the table before talks collapsed and he called a Greek referendum. But Germany's Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, has told a news conference in Berlin this morning that there is currently no deal on the table for Mr Tsipras to agree to.

     He said Greece needs to make clear what it wants:  "On the one hand, and that's the current situation reported in the media, Greece proposes a referendum calling to reject the deal on offer. Now they are talking about accepting something but there is nothing to reject or accept at the moment. Then there are reports the referendum might be cancelled. All this is not a basis to discuss serious measures. That is why Greece has to make clear what it wants and then we have to talk about this under very difficult pre-conditions. "  

    German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble
    Image caption: German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble
  265. Could there be a Greek debt deal?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  266. PM faces political row over Heathrow expansion

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    At long last, the Airports Commission has published its work. To almost no ones surprise its recommendation was another runway at Heathrow but leaving the potential option of expansion at Gatwick.

    What is also quite possible is that it will, to the ongoing annoyance of the business community who fear the UK falling behind, never get built.

    That's what the London Mayor has said this morning. That's what some members of the cabinet would also oppose and indeed, David Cameron would have to perform a u-turn of monumental proportions to go for it.

    Given those barriers it is quite feasible that the fate of the runway will be decided not by the  current government but the next - Labour could support it, but it might well become one of the defining issues of a race to succeed David Cameron - watch not just what Boris Johnson says today but also, the Chancellor George Osborne.

    BA plane at Heathrow
    Image caption: Heathrow airport
  267. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 1st July

    Stories today include the possibility of a Greek debt deal, and political reaction to the Airports Commission report.

  268. Pro-European demo in Athens

    Jess Brammar, Newsnight producer in Athens

  269. Police road blocks in Athens

    Jess Brammar, Newsnight producer

  270. Damien Hirst to open London gallery in October

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, Newsnight

    Damien Hirst on Newsnight Review
    Image caption: Damien Hirst on Newsnight Review

    Artist Damien Hirst has turned gallery owner. His new London gallery will open in October with a show of paintings by John Hoyland, the British abstract artist who objected to the Royal Academy’s 1997 Sensation exhibition of works by Young British Artists.Damien Hirst, has described the artist as "the greatest British abstract painter". He added:"John Hoyland was never afraid to push the boundaries. His paintings always feel like a massive celebration of life to me.”

    As well as the Hoyland works, Hirst will have his large personal art collection on show in his new gallery as part of future exhibitions. These include works by Picasso, Francis Bacon, Tracey Emin, Richard Hamilton, and Banksy. He will also show taxidermy works and anatomical models.  

    Ahead of the opening of a major retrospective of his career at Tate Modern in 2012 the artist Damien Hirst talked to Newsnight's Jeremy Paxman. You can view it below. Some people might find some of the images disturbing. There is strong language from the start. 

    View more on youtube
  271. New Greek offer on the table

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  272. Just how many people have left UK to join IS?

    Richard Watson, Newsnight correspondent

    Armed police in Downing Street
    Image caption: According to one well-placed source, around 2,000 traveled from UK to join IS?

    A senior counter-terrorism source has told me that the numbers of Muslims living in Britain -citizens and residents - travelling to Syria and Iraq to join extremist groups is being vastly underestimated. Officially, around 700 people are said to have gone out to fight with about half having returned to the UK. But my source says the true number is around 2,000 - almost three times the official estimate.

    This is a single source - albeit well-placed - and therefore this number has to be treated with some caution. However, the clear message is that the scale of the problem is being understated. I was also told that one in five - 20% - of those returning to the UK pose a serious threat to national security. And that around 50 have died in Syria and Iraq. So, even on the official figure of about 700 travelling to fight, that’s around 70 already back in the UK who pose a serious threat.

    But if my source’s information is correct - and about half of the 2,000 have returned - that would add up to around 200 people assessed as a serious threat. I put the 2,000 figure to an official counter-terrorism source but was told they’re unwilling to comment on numbers beyond saying that the official figure of around 700 figure is current. However, the official told me that to a certain degree it depends on who you include. In other words (and this is my interpretation) there might be a short and long list - a list of those the agencies are convinced have traveled to fight and a longer list of those they strongly suspect have gone to fight.

    The overall message from my source, who is well-placed to make this judgment, is that the problem of British muslims signing-up to the self-styled Islamic State’s twisted vision of Islam and the Caliphate is far worse than even the official picture.

  273. Post update

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  274. Rumours of Greek deal

    Jess Brammar, Newsnight producer in Athens

  275. Could there be a last minute Greek deal?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Today's the day that Greece is expected to miss a payment to the IMF, becoming the first European country to do so. Technically it would be "falling into arrears" rather than default, but that's semantics. This would be a big step.

    But the talk right now in Athens is of a last minute deal. Of course we've been here before. Many times. It still may not happen.

    The only deal that I can see working would for the Greeks to accept last Friday's offer from the creditors in return for a firm pledge of some sort of debt write down further down the line, subject to compliance.

    Debt for reform has long been the only clear compromise. A deal is still do-able, but it would be a tough political sell on both sides.

    Greek Euro coins and notes
    Image caption: Greek Euro coin and notes
  276. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 30th June

    Stories today include Greece's debt repayment deadline is tonight and critically injured British tourists return following the Tunisian terror attack.    

  277. Taxes, spending and trains

    What does the state do to our incomes?

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    I've blogged, over on my page, about what taxes, spending and benefits do to income and inequality. 

    And Thomas the Tank Engine.

  278. Cobra meeting again

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

  279. The Greek referendum question

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    On Sunday Greeks are due to vote yes or no. But yes or no to what? For the no campaigners this is a rejection of austerity, for the yes side it's about Euro membership. 

    Here then is the actual question:

    I'm not entirely sure that's the best way to frame this. The real issue is the forced choice the Greeks need to answer: what do you value more being anti-austerity or being in the Euro?

    But that question isn't being posed.

  280. Life on the streets of Athens

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  281. Greek bank controls lead to empty ATMs

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    This morning in Athens the queues at the ATMs were smaller but only because most of them where out of cash. As they got refilled over the day, the queues returned. I've met people who have spent the morning travelling from ATM to ATM, trying to get their daily €60.

    The divide today is between those worried about the how they'll get their cash out of the banks and those who, after 5 years of crisis, have nothing to take out anyway.

    EU and Greek flags
  282. Dalai Lama talks to Newsnight

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    By any stretch of the imagination it is a surreal way to begin a Monday morning. By 8am I am installed in the Sofitel at Heathrow Terminal 5 listening to the Dalai Lama describe the childhood moment he was crouching down to do a poo in his Tibetan village when he was scared off by a camel.

    It is the moment I realise the next hour is going to be quite good fun. Because the Dalai Lama - for all his 80 years- has retained an infectious laugh and a sense of the ridiculous. A man who hates formality and who punches me on the arm as he says goodbye.

    "Oww". I say " I thought you lot were in to non-violence". And he bursts into giggles again.  But for those of you expecting a Buddhist love in, it's not. We tackle fairly uncomfortable territory - whether he feels he's done enough for the Tibetan people, why he mistrusts the practice of Shugden Buddhism, what he thinks of China and Richard Gere and assisted dying and climate change.

    And there is a moment of true religious enlightenment. I ask him on behalf of Bradford City football fans whether he still supports the team. I tell him their fortunes improved tenfold since his blessing. "Oh it worked did it." He says. " well that makes me very happy. You never know with blessings. They're funny things".

    You can see the full interview next Monday 6th July on Newsnight to celebrate his 80th birthday.

    Emily Maitlis interviewing the Dalai Lama today
    Image caption: Emily Maitlis interviewing the Dalai Lama today
  283. PM's counter-terror strategy after Tunisia

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    David Cameron

    After an event of such magnitude as the killings of British people, unawares, defenceless on the beach, calls as ever go up, "something must be done". It is intolerable for us to imagine that there is nothing our 21st century society can do to fix the situation, make the horror go away.

    The Prime Minister this morning tried to provide part of that "something" with a new phrase, if not a new concept, a "full spectrum response".

    Likening the battle with IS or ISIL as he prefers to the fight against Communism it seems clear what he does not mean, British troops in large number going to their strongholds.

    What it already means though is British police and experts travelling to Tunisia in increasing number. Support to build up rival forces in Iraq who are fighting the jihadis.

    Here it will also mean here bringing forward ideas to stop young Britons being lured by the idea of extremism, proposals that were in the Conservative manifesto that will now be speeded through. And it may mean, as Labour now appears to support, additional powers for the security services, controversial but more politically palatable this morning.

     But there is a truth, as the Foreign Secretary acknowledged yesterday, however full the "spectrum" of our response, it has limits. The threats we face are many, the organisation of ISIL and those who it influences are so far removed from anything like a traditional army, that even the best and most intense efforts of a sophisticated western government can never completely stamp them out. However loud we cry "something must be done", pretending that is not the case is no help at all.

  284. Cameron's response to the terror threat

    Mark Urban

    Newsnight Defence and Diplomatic Editor

    The Prime Minister's promise of a "full spectrum" response to the Tunisian and other recent terror attacks is not new thinking but reflects a long held view that the response to violence must be comprehensive in its approach. It eschews the tabloid palliative of the "send in the SAS" and acknowledges the need to look at a broad range of activities ranging from immigration controls, security precautions, and support to foreign governments to battling militant ideology.

    In truth though there is an air of resignation among many dealing with counter-terrorism that now al Qaeda and ISIS have inspired violence with their messages of hate, there is little that can be done, in many circumstances, to stop those who would perpetrate murder. Friday's attack in France, like the murder of Lee Rigby in London was executed with a car and a knife.

    Even when somebody sympathising with extremist beliefs is able to obtain a military firearm like Seifeddine Rezgui in Tunisia, he may fit few of the other tell tale parameters of radicalisation that the police and intelligence agencies look out for. Not only had Rezgui not travelled to Syria, he had never even left Tunisia nor shown any obvious signs of a drift to ideological extremes.

    Some in the Whitehall machine fear that with each new attack, there is a further dispersion of Britain's limited means - sending troops to Algeria, Mali, or Iraq in small numbers for example - when it is far from clear what short term training programmes can do to boost local security. Instead these appear like piecemeal responses to short term crises.

    At heart almost everyone involved in crafting these policies in western countries knows that the fight within Islam is for the defeat of extremist theology is the key one, and it is a battle from which they are largely excluded.    

    Police office with gun
  285. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Monday 29th June

    Stories today include the Prime Minister's response to the terror attack in Tunisia, and the latest in the Greek debt crisis.

  286. Art work at Newsnight's old home

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor, BBC Newsnight

    Ben Rivers' art installation
    Image caption: Ben Rivers' art installation at the old BBC TV Centre

    The former headquarters of the BBC in White City, west London, where shows such as Newsnight were once produced, is re-opening its doors to the public today for Artangel’s latest commission, a cinematic installation by the UK artist Ben Rivers. 

    "The Two Eyes Are Not Brothers" is based around former scenery and props workshops in the Drama Block of the famous BBC TV Centre, which closed in 2013. Viewing rooms constructed from salvaged film sets are also used to screen parts of the work. Ben Rivers has adapted a short story set in Morocco by the American author Paul Bowles. The story was originally written in 1947.

    Rivers described the installation as a film “about the construction of film-making”. According to the Artangel website, Rivers’s “practice treads a line between documentary and fiction”. 

    The BBC decided to sell Television Centre in 2012 to developer Stanhope and move staff to the re-developed Broadcasting House in central London and MediaCity in Salford, as part of a plan to save money and have bigger production centres outside London.

    BBC TV Centre
    Image caption: BBC TV Centre when the developers took over
  287. Why it's harder for Obama to tackle race

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    President Obama

    President Obama will head to Charleston today to honour those who died at the hands of a suspected mass murderer and white supremacist, who told his friends he wanted to start a race war.

    Obama will eulogise the Reverend Clementa Pinckey, whom he knew personally, and the eight other black men and woman who were gunned down in a Church as they took Bible study. His presence no doubt will be welcome. And yet. And yet.

    There was a strong sense  - from those I talked to when I was there in Charleston this time last week that they felt let down by President Obama. Here  finally was a black president. The man whose very presence in the most prestigious job on earth should signify the civil rights movement had won. But again and again from those working for the rights of black Americans I heard a sense of despair when they talked about their President. A man, they claimed, too frightened of losing the white middle class vote to properly take on the issue of race. 

    Is that right? A comment from White House spokesman Josh Earnest is revealing. He tells us: "The focus of the President’s remarks will be on celebrating the lives of those who were lost on that tragic night last week". Of course, you might say, this is a memorial visit not a stump speech. But to use a word like "tragic" suggests an awful weary acceptance and inevitability of an event that was by all accounts calculated, hate fueled and possibly even preventable.

    He has spoken of race in regard to the Charleston shootings – but the interview he gave last week was pretty much drowned out by his controversial use of the "n" word.

    But this -  to remind you is what he said,  with progress as his theme. “It’s because societies don’t turn 50 degrees; democracies certainly don’t turn 50 degrees. And that’s been true on issues of race. That’s been true on issues of the environment. That’s true on issues of discrimination. As long as they’re turning in the right direction and we’re making progress, then government is working sort of the way it’s supposed to.”  The Obama you see here is a President who is happy to elide race, the environment and discrimination into one sound bite. 

    He doesn’t want to be America’s Black President. He just wants to be the American President.

  288. Suspected terror attack in France

    Robert Morgan, Newsnight Assistant Editor

    A man has been beheaded and at least one other person injured in a suspected Islamist attack on a gas factory near the French city of Lyon. There were several small explosions, possibly caused by gas canisters, at the Air Products factory in Saint-Quentin-Fallavier. A man has been arrested by anti-terror police. Reports suggest two attackers drove into the factory carrying a flag with Arabic writing on it.

    French President Francois Hollande is set to leave the EU summit in Brussels this afternoon and return to France. He is expected to give a news conference before travelling.

    A few months ago Evan Davis interviewed Christiane Taubira, the French Justice minister.  She discussed community relations in the wake of the Charlie Hebdo terror attacks. You can watch it below:

    View more on youtube
  289. Greek talks on a knife edge

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    As I leave Athens the talks between Greece and it's creditors are on a knife edge. In many ways we are back were we where weeks ago: the two outstanding issues are debt restructuring and pension reform.

    But unlike weeks ago, time is running short. With a deal Greece will almost certainly miss a payment to the IMF on Tuesday. If the ECB does as it is indicating and declines to offer the Greek banking system more emergency support after the current bailout ends on Tuesday, things could get very messy indeed, very quickly.

    Analysts at JP Morgan today argued that without a deal by Monday, capital controls would have to be imposed to control deposit outflows ahead of Tuesday's deadline. That echoes the comments of Chancellor Merkel that a deal needs to be complete by market open on Monday.

    It looks like the final deadline is finally upon us.

    Greek flag
  290. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Friday 26th June

    Stories today include the latest on the Greek debt crisis, and Cameron's first attempt at negotiating for EU reform at the leaders summit.

  291. Arrested Rwanda spy chief 'was in UK to see head of MI6'

    Rwandan officials claim Karenzi Karake was in London for high level meeting

    Karenzi Karake
    Image caption: Karenzi Karake

    The Rwandan spy chief arrested in the UK over alleged war crimes had come to London to meet the head of MI6, sources have told the BBC.

    Karenzi Karake, the head of Rwanda’s intelligence services, was to meet Alex Younger last Thursday morning, but the meeting was cancelled at the last moment, according to those familiar with the general’s itinerary.

    Earlier today Karake, 54, was awarded conditional bail at Westminster Magistrates Court ahead of a full extradition hearing in October.

    He was arrested at Heathrow airport on Saturday under a European Arrest Warrant on behalf of authorities in Spain where he is wanted in connection with alleged war crimes against civilians.

    In court today, lawyers acting for Karake, including Cherie Booth, QC, made clear they believe the charges against him are bogus and politically motivated.

    Karake appeared in court wearing a green and yellow jumpsuit. He has been held since Saturday at Belmarsh high security prison in east London.

    Whitehall sources neither confirmed nor denied details of MI6's engagement with Karake. The claim that he was due to meet Britain's most senior intelligence official will add to the political embarrassment over his detention.

    By Nick Davies and Vinnie O'Dowd. 

  292. Greek democracy under pressure

    The democratic mandate doesn't fit with reality

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Greek Parliament

    Entering the Eurozone always meant signing up to a set of rules, to limiting freedom of manoeuvre for policy makers. In many ways that was, in much of Europe, sold as an attraction.

    Locking yourself into a fixed exchange rate regime (an extreme version which was almost impossible to leave) allowed Southern European countries to piggy back on Germany's economic credibility.

    In a previous, pre-euro crisis, countries like Greece and Italy would simply have devalued their currencies to boost exports and inflate debt. The problem being that that works as a short term solution but not a long term road to prosperity. The end result was uncompetitive economies and telephone number exchange rates for the Lira and Drachma.

    But if countries entering the Euro knew they were giving up control of monetary policy, ending the easy option of devaluation & signing up to tough fiscal rules, that was one thing. What's happened recently is different.

    Greece (and others before them) aren't just being asked to hit fiscal targets, the manner in which those targets are hit (the balance of spending cuts vs tax rises for example) are being imposed. Specific aspects of microeconomic policy - everything from the pension system to labour market law - are being argued about by the creditors.

    The democratic mandate argument can be overplayed. If the Greek people voted for a unicorn each, the creditors have no duty or ability to comply. Democracy has to fit with reality.

    But many worry the balance has swung too far.

    The bigger issue at play at the moment is this: is Eurozone membership compatible with national democratic nation states?

  293. Hedgehog obsession

    The newspaper coverage is relentless

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    A hedgehog
    Image caption: A hedgehog

    Don't get me wrong. We all love a hedgehog. This is not a personal attack on their stealth wisdom or beauty. 

    Thing is though , there seem to be quite a lot of them. Not in real life. Who ever sees them in real life? But in the Times newspaper. 

    At first I thought it was my own whimsical obsession. Then I started counting. It's definitely not me. 

    There have been a hundred and one mentions of hedgehogs in the past 12 months. That's almost as many mentions as the paper has of the defence budget.  

    Now you may say that's still not enough. But I would suggest someone at the Times has a hedgehog thing going on. 

  294. Creditors set ultimatum for Greeks

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    There's rising talk inside Greece, and it's no longer confined to just the left of Syriza, that the creditors are trying to force a change of government. This is driven by their actions over the last week - saying on Monday that the Greek proposals were a good basis for discussion before presenting an almost entirely different plan and by the fact that the leaders of the opposition parities are all in Brussels.

    Here's how that would work: The creditors present a plan that crosses Syriza's "red lines" and refuse to budge. Greece doesn't sign and the current programme ends on the 30th June. Greece misses a payment to the IMF on the 30th. When the programme ends on Tuesday, the ECB declines to extend more support to the Greek banks. Faced with heavy deposit outflows, capital controls are imposed. Against a backdrop of financial panic, a bank run and a liquidity starved economy, the government are forced to seek a fresh mandate. A more compliant government is elected.

    The problem with this plan of course is what might be termed the "execution risk" in the final stage. Because an election fought on the grounds of "democracy vs the EU" could well return a Syriza government with a stronger mandate. But then the creditors haven't had a great track record of calling Greek politics well over the last five years.

    Greek flag at austerity demonstration
    Image caption: Anti-austerity demonstrators in Athens this week
  295. Cameron takes reform plans to EU leaders

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    David Cameron today is making his first serious attempt to present his demands for reform to his fellow European leaders en masse at the latest of their regular get togethers.

    For him, this is an important day. For party reasons he has to show he is serious about making the renegotiations meaningful and actually that he will achieve something.

    The problem is (one of many that will be discussed endlessly over the next eighteen months), right now the UK's domestic political shenanigans are just nowhere near the top of the EU's priority list.

    One very senior diplomat who likes and respects David Cameron told me recently he has never seen the UK as isolated as it is now. Yes, there are countries who agree the EU needs change, but banging the drum for structural changes to the complicated mechanisms of the EU when it is struggling to contain the impact of two mammoth problems on its shores is perhaps not the way to make friends. If the PM is to achieve his aims of reforming our relationship with the EU, friends in the rest of the union are what he needs. Today, getting a real hearing may be the hardest thing to achieve.

    Cameron and Merkel
  296. Do both sides want a Greek deal?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Another day of talks, following another night of work by the "experts" trying to find a solution. I'm reminded of something once said by Per Jacobssen (a former head of the IMF), that an expert is a "man who can express the opinion of his government in technical terms". Because really this is a political negotiation dressed up as economic policy making. 

    To understand why, consider this: what is actually being debated is an eight month funding programme for Greece. It will last until early 2016, so all the much contested fiscal targets for 2016, 2017 and beyond are irrelevant to the immediate issue at hand.

     Even leaving that aside, there is more art than science to agreeing whether the economics of this deal are sustainable. If the IMF is worried that package the Greeks have suggested would push the economy into recession, that could be offset by accounting for EU investment funds or the impact of QE (which Greece is not currently benefiting directly from). In other words if the will (on both sides) is there for a deal, then a way can be found to make the numbers add up.

    The question then is, is the will actually there on both sides?

    Greek flag
  297. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Thursday 25th June

    Stories today include Greek debt crisis talks and Cameron opening negotiations on reform at the European leaders meeting tonight. 

  298. Confederate flag row spreads across the US

    Robert Morgan, Newsnight Assistant Editor

    Confederate flag

    Pressure is growing to withdraw the Confederate battle flag across the US with Alabama Governor Robert Bentley today ordering the removal of four confederate flags in the state capitol grounds. Earlier this week South Carolina lawmakers called for its removal from the state house.

    Efforts are under way in four other states - Texas, Mississippi, Virginia and Tennessee - to remove state-sponsored Confederate tributes. And some major retailers like Amazon and Walmart are also removing it.

    The murder of nine parishioners at a historical black church in Charleston, South Carolina, last week renewed debate about the place of the flag in US culture. The suspect, Dylann Roof, has appeared in many photos holding the Confederate flag.

    You can see Emily Maitlis' original report here.

  299. Measuring child poverty

    It's hard to do well. But does it actually change anything?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    David Cameron gave the strongest indication yet at PMQs that he is considering changing the definition of child poverty. This is something that Conservatives have been toying with a while - there was a report for DWP in 2012 that looked at some of the options.

    One of the problems that advocates for change have with the current definition (60% of median income) is that it can give us some slightly counterintuitive outcomes. To illustrate this, imagine an economy of ten people, with incomes of five to 50, as illustrated below - you'll notice I've named them from A - J as shorthand for poorest to richest:

    A chart

    Alice Bob and Caroline have kids that are in child poverty.

    Now imagine that there's a colossal recession, and everybody's incomes fall to the same level as Alice's:

    Child poverty

    Now, despite everyone but Alice have seen a dramatic drop in their income, nobody has kids in child poverty on this definition. So Alice, Bob and Caroline have, on this measure, been lifted out of child poverty, despite having seen their incomes go down.

    Finally, our mini economy bounces back - there's a boom, and almost everyone's incomes go up. Perversely, Alice, Bob and Caroline find themselves in child poverty again, despite having seen their incomes triple since the recession, and increase since before it - and Dave is pulled into child poverty too: 

    Child poverty

    So, as you can see, it's perfectly possible for a family's income to increase substantially and yet for them to be measured as falling into child poverty. Or for it to go down and for them to be measured as coming out of child poverty.

    But can we do any better than this as a measure? The DWP report from 2012 suggested that a basket of measures, some of them non financial should be used, namely:

    1. Income and material deprivation 2. Worklessness 3. Unmanagable debt 4. Poor housing 5. Parental skill level 6. Access to quality education 7. Family stability 8. Parental health

    To my mind, this just turns child poverty from an income measure into more of a general measure of well being. There will inevitably be anomalies in this as well (would it, for example, pick up rural poverty where people can have jobs and relatively nice houses but low pay and high living costs mean they can struggle to put food on the table?)

    My general point is this: almost any child poverty statistic you can imagine is going to come up with weird results, almost all of them are going to have problems. 

    But none of them actually, per se, have any impact at all on people's lives. For low earners, income tax cuts or tax credits will be the things that actually affect their incomes. Improvements in schools will affect their education. And lower rates of crime will improve how safe they feel. You can argue all day about the ins and outs of various child poverty statistics, but they will in themselves achieve nothing. Because that's all they are. Statistics.

  300. The day direct action returned?

    Paul Carter, Newsnight

    Protestors and police in Parliament

    One disabled person told me privately a few weeks ago that pictures of disabled people being physically removed by police would no longer remain a thing of the past – something confined to the 1980s and 1990s as disabled people took direct action in their campaign for greater rights. Today’s extraordinary scenes in Parliament suggest they were right.

    During Prime Minister’s Questions this afternoon, a small group of disabled people and their personal assistants attempted to gain access to the Commons Chamber, but were prevented from doing so by Police. They then occupied the Central lobby, where some were pictured being forcibly removed by police and parliamentary security.

    The protestors were campaigning against the closure of the Independent Living Fund on 30th June, which they claim will result in many of the 18,000 recipients losing much of their current social care provision.

    The government has previously stated that the money from the ILF will be passed to local authorities, who have a statutory responsibility to provide social care, and that support needs will continue to be met.

    Whichever side of the fence they fall, politicians and campaigners alike know that images of wheelchair-users being manhandled by the authorities make for strong PR and uncomfortable viewing,  which seems to be supported by broadcasters from both the BBC and ITV reporting that they were told to stop recording images and audio of the protest.

    If today’s scenes in Parliament mark a change in strategy – and disability campaigners have suggested to me that it might – then scenes like today may well prove that this particularly problematic  form of protest is something we may well see more often.

  301. The beginning of the end?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    A bucket of cold water just got poured over the optimism.

    The creditors have presented a new plan to Greece - one that rather than skirting around red lines pushes Greece firmly across them. It involves VAT rises and actual cuts to pension payments.

    It may be that something can be agreed at the last moment but the signs right now aren't great.

    The key decision makers now are the ECB. They've been happy to extend emergency support to Greece's banks to keep them alive as long as a deal seemed close. If that attitude changes, the banks are in trouble and capital controls are close.

    The big questions are: what is the attitude of the ECB? And if the (not so-) veiled threat is: "agree to this or we kill the banks", then how do the Greeks respond?

    This might be a last flash of brinksmanship - this time from the creditors - or it might be the beginning of the end.

    The next few hours are crucial.

    Greek flag waves over a protest march
  302. PMQs reviewed

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Bash the bonapartists screamed the Labour leader! No! They’re our partners and I love their claret, the PM subliminally replied. Yes this week we were back to 1789, 1815 and 2003 as the Labour leader seemed determined to goad the Prime Minister to indulge in a bit of good old fashioned bonapart-bashing. But the PM, in no mood to attack the cheese-eating-surrender monkeys did an unusual thing for a British leader and resisted. He emoliently responded (doubtless with the ever-lengthening shadow of renegotiation in mind) that the Frenchies are our sound partners with whom we should work more closely. Bon amis all round (try telling to that to Deputy Mayor of Calais Dave, who says it’s all your fault).

    The PM was on a stickier wicket with Harman’s second round of questioning. Using ammunition from the saintly IFS she asked whether it was possibly conceivable that any employers would increase their pay paid to their mimimum wage workers by 25% overnight to compensate for the prospective loss of in-work tax credits. The PM responded in general terms, unsure how to answer the specific point. Note there was no denial that this is going to happen. Given that working-tax credits costs some £30bn a year, they will have to be reduced if the PM wants to make the £12bn in welfare savings he promised in the election. Harman quipped that the PM doesn’t have to budget (the niece of the Countess of Longford by contrast is notoriously hard up) and that he was going to make some of the poorest employed people in the country worse off still. This is surely going to be the focus of Labour’s attack on the July budget and the theme of the summer until a new leadership is in place.

    More broadly we’re now four PMQs in to the new parliament and something is now very striking. The new parliament seems curiously indifferent to the collapsing world around us. Repeating a pattern largely upheld in recent weeks, aside from Calais, not a single question from the backbenchers on either side about Greece or the Mediterranean migrant crisis or the creeping plague of IS in the Middle East. Even the new chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee used his question to ask about how to best protect the Foreign Office budget rather than any great foreign policy issue. Instead the new sessions are replete with worthy questions on local road bypass upgrades, rural broadband and small-business rate relief. All important, all very proper but yet, from the mother of parliaments, at a time of global turmoil, astonishingly parochial.

    Backbencher of the Week: Antoinette Sandbach, for having a name which will allow sketchwriters to have endless ‘Let them eat cake’ jokes.

    Antoinette Sandbach MP
    Image caption: No cake jokes please
  303. Post update

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

  304. Is the Greek deal sustainable?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    The IMF can't sign off any deal that it views as "unsustainable". Over the past 48 hours, the Fund has been fretting that the deal on the table wouldn't prove sustainable. Specifically that the large tax rises the Greeks are proposing (income taxes on higher earners, VAT rises, corporation tax hikes and increased pension contributions for firms and workers) will hit the already weak economy hard. Lower Greek GDP would mean a higher ratio of debt to GDP.

    In theory there are two ways to solve this issue - both of which are politically fraught. Either the creditors could agree to write downs in debt (not something the European finance ministers can agree to straight away) or Greece would need to present a modified plan (difficult domestically).

    There may though be a third way through - if Juncker can pledge to direct €35bn of new European Union funding towards Greece and Draghi can say that Greece will now be included in ECB QE, then that might be enough to allow the IMF to say the economy will grow enough to make the debt/GDP ratio sustainable.

    That'd be fudging the issue - grand European economic plans usually over promise and under deliver (and are usually behind the timetable) - but at this stage it's in the interest of all the players gathering in Brussels to prevent a deal falling apart. 

    Greek flag
  305. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Wednesday 24th June

    Stories today include the Greek debt crisis, and looking ahead to the critical EU leaders meeting.

  306. Sir Chris Woodhead: 1946-2015

    A man whose greatest strength was his weakness

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Sir Chris Woodhead

    I've written about the former chief inspector of schools, whose death was announced today

  307. Calais strike casualty no.29810

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Don't think it's just the booze cruisers and the tourists affected by the Calais strike. One of the sadder victims is the Labour Deputy Leader contest as one of the main contenders is stuck in Brussels:

    BBC

    Let's hope it doesn't go on too long...

  308. Is Zac Goldsmith the only person who can beat Labour?

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Zac Goldsmith

    Zac Goldsmith is as of today officially a candidate to be Boris Johnson's successor as Mayor of London after winning an "endorsement" vote from his Richmond Park constituents. 

    The result (a 79% thumbs up) has drawn some snarky comments from his opponents, pointing out that the turnout of just short of 26% would fail the Government's proposed 50% threshold for industrial action.

    Nonetheless, there is a definite sense that Labour insiders see Goldsmith as a clear threat to their chances of retaking the capital.

    This is borne out by looking at the odds being offered by the bookies. Goldsmith has straightaway entered the market as favourite, ahead of established candidates such as Tessa Jowell and Sadiq Khan. 

    Here is what market aggregator Oddschecker has at the moment: 

    Odds for next London Mayor

    Goldsmith is out on top despite the fact that Labour are odds on to win the contest, such is the extent to which he seems to be weighted to outperform his own party. The next Tory on the list is former Enfield North MP Nick Dubois, who has today endorsed Goldsmith. 

    As with all of these markets, there are many people on this list who are not and who will not be candidates. Disappointingly for Labour, two of their official candidates, Gareth Thomas and Christian Wolmar, are below Nick Clegg and Ed Balls.

    What does this tell us about who is going to win in 2016? Well, the General Election results in London show that Labour, all things being equal, should be in a good position to win in 2016. They increased their share of the vote by 7%, gained 7 seats and established a 9 point lead over the Conservatives city-wide.

    If you look at the charts below, you'll see that Labour increased their share of the vote and number of seats to around the level of 2005, just one year after Ken Livingstone won London for Labour.

    Electoral Performance in London 1997-2015

    The counterpoint to this is that personal appeal can have a decisive effect in a Presidential-style race. That's how Boris Johnson managed to win in 2008 with 43% of the vote in the first round: that was double the Tory London vote in 2005 and still around 14% more than the Tories got there in the 2010 General Election.

    Can another eco-friendly Old Etonian repeat the trick in 2016? Looking at the odds, he might be the Tories' only hope.   

  309. Behind arrest of Rwanda spy chief is a battle for control of history

    By Gabriel Gatehouse @ggatehouse

    Skulls of genocide victims in Rwanda
    Image caption: Skulls of victims of Rwandan genocide

    The arrest of the Rwandan spy chief, Karenzi Karake, in London has drawn attention to the tip of a very large and contentious iceberg.

    An “insult to our collective conscience,” Rwanda’s High Commissioner to the UK, Williams Nkurunziza, called it. What did he mean by that? Andrew Mitchell expressed it more bluntly, when he told the Today Programme that the Spanish arrest-warrant was “enacted by supporters of the genocidal regime in Rwanda”.

    This goes to the heart of the matter. Set aside for a moment the legal merits of the Spanish investigation (about which doubts have been expressed). What is going on here is a battle for control of history, for control of the narrative of what happened during and – more particularly – in the aftermath of the genocide.

    The official narrative in Rwanda is this: when the genocide began, the world stood by and did nothing as an estimated 800,000 people were slaughtered by genocidal mobs bent on wiping out the Tutsis. This is true. The official narrative then says that, in the absence of any international action (hence the High Commissioner's reference to “collective conscience”), the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), a Tutsi-led guerrilla force, came in and stopped the genocide. This is also true. Thirdly, the official narrative states that, through almost superhuman efforts of discipline, the RPF, under Paul Kagame, unified the country and turned Rwanda into a functioning state, an African success story. This is also largely true.

    And this is why western politicians love Kagame. What unites Tony Blair and David Cameron? They both know that when they decide to spend hundreds of millions of pounds of British aid money on Rwanda, it will get spent well and they will see results.

    But there is another narrative. Not a counter-narrative – nothing can diminish the horror of the Rwandan genocide. But a parallel narrative. Stopping mass murder was not achieved through hard work and saintliness alone. It was a war. In the course of that war, and in its aftermath, mass killings took place, in some cases of civilians. Political assassinations were carried out. They continue to this day. This is not part of the officially accepted narrative.

    In Rwanda, I have spoken to people who have told me terrible stories: of watching family members slaughtered in front of their eyes. When those killings took place at the hands of Hutu genocidaires, these stories are aired and discussed in public, as part of Rwanda’s efforts towards rebuilding their society. But when those alleged killings took place at the hands of those who stopped the genocide, at the hands of the RPF, which now runs Rwanda, it is a taboo subject. Not taboo in the sense that it’s not socially acceptable to talk about it. Taboo in the sense that, if you do talk about it, you’re likely to end up in jail, or worse.

    The case of Karenzi Karake threatens to shine a light on this narrative. And that is why the response from the Rwandan government and its supporters has been so swift and so furious.

  310. The Gove effect

    Or how to get people interested in justice reforms

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    The minister for a middle ranking department makes a speech in which he says he will implement the efficiency reforms recommended by a report released six months previously, and written by a well respected judge. The reforms themselves appear to be backed by the sector's establishment, and include things like using IT better.

    This is the sort of story that generally finds its way to page seven of the national newspapers and is discussed at length in the trade press.

    Except, it would seem, today. The government's justice reforms made it onto several front pages, and are riding high in the news agenda.

    Why? Well, it's true that the measures appear to be worthy. But they're not obviously more radical than, say, much of what the government did in the cabinet office in the last Parliament. 

    Perhaps people are fascinated by justice? Not obvious from IPSOS Mori's most recent issues index:

    Mori issues index

    No. I think the answer lies in this chart from Google Trends, which gives us a fairly unscientific measure of the interest they've observed in various justice ministers and the author of the report (Brian Leveson - remember him?) over the last five years. You'll notice that Leveson barely registers when he publishes recommendations for exactly this set of reforms in January 2015:

    searches for different politicians

    My suspicion is that the excitement over today's justice reforms isn't really because people are fascinated by court processes and IT procurement. It's all about the public (and in that I include the media) fascination with the messenger, this man:

    Michael Gove
    Image caption: Michael Gove
  311. Legal aid: The government's record

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Michael Gove is presenting himself as the defender of England and Wales' poor in his new incarnation as Justice Secretary. Today in a speech he has warned that the "creaking and outdated" justice system is letting down the poor most and that efficiencies and more modern practice of work is urgently required.

    This may well be true. But it's worth bearing in mind just how substantial the transformation in the primary vehicle of providing the poor with access to the justice system has been since 2010.

    In 2012 the government passed the Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act. This removed funding from entire areas of civil law, including:

    • Private family law, such as divorce and custody battles
    • Personal injury and some clinical negligence cases
    • Some employment and education law
    • Immigration where the person is not detained
    • Some debt, housing and benefit issues

    The changes also affected criminal cases, removing £215m of funding from criminal legal aid. This prompted a mass walk-out of criminal barristers for the first time in their history. Indeed the changes to legal aid were the most dramatic since its introduction sixty five years ago.

    The act didn't come into force until 2013 so we now have a full year of its effects. According to MoJ figures compared to the "acts of assistance" (legal speak for legal aid, essentially) under the last year of the last government 2009/10 there has been an overall fall of 39 per cent in the number of acts granted. Within this, criminal cases have fallen by 14%  whilst in the civil justice area the volume of legal aid has fallen by nearly two-thirds, as the graph below shows.

    DOJ

    Volumes, in terms of the number of acts of assistance, were at their highest in 2009-10. Since this peak volumes have fallen by just over 39 per cent; within this reduction the criminal legal aid area has reduced by almost 14 per cent but the majority of the fall has come from the civil justice area which has reduced by almost two-thirds over this period. To put some numbers on that, in 2013/14 alone 500,000 fewer cases received legal aid compared with the year previously. Within that, social welfare and family law have been most affected, with drops of 80% and 60% respectively.   Divorce in particular has become a far more expensive affair (no pun intended) and there has been a rise in the number of litigants in person (people having to represent themselves in court).

    We live in a time of deep public retrenchment, money is very tight. But it might be worth thinking about just how much defendants turning up on time and the introduction of technology can compensate for this retreat from the state from the courtroom. No matter how efficient the system is if the poor or people on middle incomes can't get access to it in the first place, it won't make much difference.

  312. South Carolina calls for removal of Confederate flag

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Confederate flag

    "You wont find a Confederate flag flying in this city no more". I am in the French Quarter of Charleston, the day after nine black members of a church have been shot dead as they studied their Bible, by a young white man trying to "start a race war’. The words are spoken by Leanne, a white woman who runs a cookie stall in the place they now call "The Old Slave Market".

    She has just answered my question. I have been trying to find a flag  – which has long been a symbol of controversy.  It  represents the region that seceded from the Union in 1861 – but was raised in the early 1960s by those protesting racial desegregation in the South. And I have been searching for one  to film. Overnight, that sense of unease at its symbolism has sharpened.  And although Charleston will no longer fly it, just a hundred miles or so away in the state capitol, Columbia, it flies proudly over the state house. In a weird political compromise, it flies beside, no longer on it. Change comes slowly to this part of the world. 

    Or has done till now. Last night, in an about turn. The Governor, Nikki Hayley, herself of Indian-American descent, called for it to come down. As ever, politicians in the South walk a wary line – caught between supporting "heritage"  - which is an important part of the Southern way – and not being afraid to condemn its racist past. But today – the republican legislator says she plans to introduce a bill to remove the flag at the capitol building, particularly since that very building has seen vigils to the victims of the racially motivated attack.

    Perhaps the will is there now to enshrine this change in law. But don’t expect anything to happen quickly. Many may remember how Senator John Mccain came unstuck – exactly here, a full fifteen years ago. In April 2000, shortly before bowing out of the Republican presidential primary, he expressed regret for not speaking out about the flying of the Confederate flag over the South Carolina state capital. He admitted fearing he would lose the primary there if he had done so.  Has enough changed now to tell politicians they can call for the flag to be banned, and not face election purdah for forever more?

    There are 12 Republicans seeking their party’s nomination for President next year. Not a single one has explicitly called for the flag to be removed from South Carolina’s statehouse – some like Mick Huckabee have even said this is "not an issue for a presidential candidate". Demographic changes and shifting attitudes towards race may mean they are out of step with America. But the Republican primary contests are overwhelmingly dominated by white males.

    Nikki Hayley’s shift in her own position is perhaps a recognition that the state of South Carolina needs unity right now. But the legal process to ban the flag could still be long and tortuous. It needs two thirds majority assent of the general assembly. And legislative time to make the case the flag is no longer welcome there.

  313. Three trip wires remain before a Greek deal

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    The deal is almost done. Just three trip wires remain. 

    The creditors may still demand more or find, in their ongoing technical assessment. But, whilst some European Finance Ministers are talking tough - there is an appetite for a deal amongst most.

    The second trip wire is the Greek banks. Whilst a delay in the deal could trigger a fresh outflow of deposits, that risk (for the first time in weeks) now looks contained. The ECB is content to keep provided support and the lower risk of a Greek Euro exit or capital controls should provided some reassurance to anxious depositors.

    The real risk is politics. This is the third trip wire.The deal that has been reached is a tough sell in Greece. The Government will point to an easing of austerity, they'll argue that much of the fiscal work is being done by tax rises rather than spending cuts and they'll say that the "red lines" haven't been crossed.

    Whilst that's all true, the red lines have been skirted around (pensions aren't being cut but early retirement is being scaled back, there's a chunky rise in VAT on the way and a deeply unpopular property tax is staying), there is no commitment to debt relief and a much of Syriza's manifesto will now go unfulfilled.

    The sense in Athens today is that the deal is achievable. Whilst much of Syriza's activist base and many MPs will be unhappy, many others think the government - in difficult circumstances - has made gains.

    Amongst the wider public a Euro exit - the real alternative - would have been deeply unpopular. But in eight months time, when the new deal expires, achieving another fix will be harder. The Greek economy is in a weak position. And it's about to be hit by large tax rises. That won't help.

    PM
    Image caption: Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras
  314. NEWSNIGHT LIVE

    Tuesday 23rd June

    Stories in the news today include the Greek debt crisis and Justice  Secretary, Michael Gove's speech on the justice system. 

  315. British police arrest Rwanda spy chief

    By Vinnie O'Dowd

    Karenzi Karake
    Image caption: Karenzi Karake

    Rwanda’s intelligence chief, wanted in Spain for war crimes, has been arrested in London.

    BBC Newsnight has learned that the Metropolitan Police’s Extradition Unit arrested Karenzi Karake at Heathrow Airport on Saturday.

    The Metropolitan Police confirmed that the 54-year-old Rwandan appeared before Westminster Magistrates Court after being detained under a European Arrest Warrant. He has been remanded in custody until June 25.

    Karake is Director General of Rwanda’s National Intelligence and Security Services. Karake fought during the 1990-1994 Rwandan Civil War and later served as Rwanda's intelligence chief between 1994 and 1997, and then as deputy commander of the African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur.

    Karake is one of 40 Rwandan commanders named in an indictment issued in 2008 by Spanish investigative judge Andreu Merelles.

    The Spanish court alleges that while acting as head of military intelligence after the genocide Karake, ordered a number of massacres.

    He is also accused of ordering the killing of three Spanish nationals working for the NGO Medicos del Mundo.

    The arrest of Karake will potentially bring the British government into conflict with an important regional player with whom it has maintained close ties. In 2013 Rwanda was the 18th biggest recipient of UK aid.

    Karake's is the first arrest of a major RPF figure under charges brought abroad. Tonight Jordi Palou-Loverdos, the lawyer representing nine Spanish massacre victims, told Newsnight: "We hope in the name of the victims that this time justice will be provided and Karenzi Karake will soon be delivered to the Spanish court to have a fair trial, where he can defend himself. And we hope that political or other interests will not neutralise the place for justice, truth and reparation."

  316. How the Tories learned to hate tax credits

    Marc Williams

    Newsnight Election Producer

    Michael Howard launching the Conservative manifesto in 2005
    Image caption: Michael Howard launching the Conservative manifesto in 2005

    Welfare, in particular tax credits, is dominating the political agenda today. Following the Prime Minister's speech on the issue, it has reappeared in the House of Commons this afternoon. Pressed by Labour MPs, Iain Duncan Smith has explicitly said that tax credits were boosted by the previous Labour government "as a way of trying to buy votes".

    He said:

    "Quite interestingly, it appears just before every election the Labour government increased tax credits dramatically. In 2004 by 60 per cent, just before the 2005 election again by 7.2 per cent and then just before the 2010 election both by 14.4 and by 8.5 per cent."

    This is a pretty powerful allegation, but it is interesting to note that it isn't one that the Conservatives made at the time. I've dusted off my old (electronic) copy of the Conservative Campaign Guide for the 2005 General Election. This is the internal document drawn up by the party's policy boffins to help candidates fight the election. 

    Was this filled with potent political invective against the scurrilous folly of Labour pumping ever more money into the tax credit system? Well, no. Here's what was included in the section entitled "Problems with Tax Credits": 

    Conservative Campaign Guide on Tax Credits

    So, the criticism was not of excessive largesse, rather of administrative incompetence and the hardships facing some households that were overpaid tax credits that they then had to return. 

    Given the expected level of cuts to tax credits (back to 2003 levels, according to Government briefings), it remains to be seen whether the Conservatives will admit that there will be any "hardship" for those affected.

    As a footnote, the Conservatives did have another distinctive policy on tax credits in the 2005 election campaign, but it was not to cut them. Instead, it was to introduce a new tax credit to support flexible childcare.

  317. Syntagma Square Rally

    Duncan Weldon and Jess Brammar in Athens

  318. Europol to target IS online propaganda

    Richard Watson, Newsnight correspondent

    Typing on laptop

    “Better late than never” will be the reaction of some to the news today that a Europe-wide police team from Europol is being formed to track social media accounts used for Islamic State propaganda. The so-called Islamic State – under its former names of Isis or Isil – have been dominating the information war on the Internet for nearly two years.

    Newsnight interviewed one of the “early adopters” in November 2013 – Ifthekar Jaman from Portsmouth. He told me he was on “jihad” in a Skype call from near the Syrian frontline. Jaman had grown-up in the UK and went to college here. He worked in a customer service centre. He was killed fighting, just two weeks after our interview.

    Jaman is a case in point. He was a prolific user of social media, in some ways a poster-boy for violent jihad. Some of his friends from Portsmouth followed him to Syria. Several have died.

    It appears to be dawning on some that the number of western Europeans being drawn to life in the Caliphate is not being diminished by brutal reality on the ground. You’d have thought that mass beheadings, especially of non-combatants, would pollute the waters a little. But it seems not.

    One of my sources told me the numbers did start to wane several months ago because the aid convoys to Syria were drying-up. That’s not to say there were no genuine convoys, but there’s doubt that some were being used to smuggle fighters over the Turkish-Syrian border.

    But the flow of western recruits has been maintained using other routes. Take the sisters from Bradford who diverted, it seems, from pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia. It’s hard to second-guess that. Europol, the European police agency, estimates that 5000 EU citizens are now in IS territory.

    In the UK, the Security Service MI5 assess that around 700 Brits have gone to fight and half have returned. But one well-placed police source told me this is a big underestimate. The true figure is far higher.

    So, will choking-off the propaganda work? That assumes that there are “waverers” who just might decide to stay at home if it wasn’t for the material they see online. There are some in this category, perhaps, but I doubt there are than many. Most fighters are well-versed in “jihadi” arguments and are used to going against the flow. Indeed, that is part of the attraction. They believe that most mainstream thinkers have sold-out and nothing should deviate them from the “true” path.

    Many subscribers to the Islamic State are converts to Islam who may not have the cultural and religious hinterland to put IS’s religious claims into context. Indeed, for most potential supporters – converts or not - there is no context, just absolutism, and that is the core problem. The IS target audience doesn’t believe in context or nuance. Supporters simply assert they are religiously correct and that violent tactics of terror are justified because the end goal is creating and sustaining an “Islamic state”.

    Ultimately, targeting the internet is a necessary, if rather belated, first step. But the true battle is one of ideas. Winning that could persuade potential recruits to change their minds before they leave.

  319. Can kicked as Greek talks continue

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Greek flag waving

    The can looks to have been kicked again. Probably only a short kick to later in the week, when it may be given a longer wallop out for another six months with a bailout extension.  

    The Eurogroup of finance ministers have broadly welcomed the new Greek proposals but say they came too late for a full technical assessment to be carried out. 

    For the first time in months Eurozone officials are talking warmly about the chances of a deal being done soon. So, progress then but a delay nonetheless. And that delay brings risks.

    The first is financial, Greek banks are still bleeding deposits with the ECB extending support three times in five days. That is likely to become four times in a matter of hours. But at the moment this financial risk seems containable. Whilst a messy break down in the talks would probably have sparked faster deposit flight, the signs of progress may calm nerves. And the ECB is highly unlikely to pull the plug whilst talks continue. Having kept the Greek banks afloat through months of difficult talks, it would be odd to stop now a deal looks doable.

    The real risk is domestic politics, both in Greece and in the creditor countries. The deal that looks to be on the table will be a difficult sell within Syriza (where it will be seen as harsh and tough) and a difficult sell in Northern Europe (where it won't be seen as tough enough).

    It would have been a much easier political task to sell a sealed deal, the delay may allow domestic opponents to try and unpick elements of it in the days ahead.

    Today was supposed to be decision day. The decision that has been made though, is to delay the decision. Again.

  320. Sue Lloyd Roberts' search for a stem cell donor

    James Clayton

    Here’s Newsnight’s Sue Lloyd Roberts on the VictoriaDerbyshire Show talking about her search to find a stem cell donor.  If you’re 30 or under and at New Broadcasting House today do come along before 4pm and you can join the stem cell donor register.

    Sue Lloyd Roberts
    Image caption: Sue Lloyd Roberts
  321. Greek concessions as banks call time

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    Here's a list of what look to be the Greek concessions since last week. In case you don't have a microscope to read the small print this is what the tweet says:

    " *A broad based VAT rates, inclusive of some foodstuffs and restaurants by 10%; 

    *An elimination of early retirement benefits from 2016 to be phased in over three years; 

    *Most importantly, a broad-based increase in pension contributions, reported to be 2% for wage-earners and 2% for corporations;

     *An increase in a special "healthcare" charge on pensions equivalent to an across the board cut of 1% in main and 5% cuts in supplementary pensions; 

    *Cuts in defence spending; 

    *Increases in corporate tax rates to those firms earning more than 500mio EUR profits; 

    *Increases in income tax rates to those earning above 30k EUR."

    They are large and represent the crossing of several red lines. Why the change? The simple answer is: the banks.

    The European Central Bank has now had to extent emergency support three times in five days. The Greek government are now negotiating with their creditors whilst knowing that they have the ability to collapse their banking system if no deal is reached. 

    That isn't a great position of strength from which to bargain.

    Greek and EU flag
  322. Greek debt crisis

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

  323. Cameron makes case for welfare cuts

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    David Cameron

    This week ends for the PM with an important EU summit... So it will start with a big speech on domestic policy - the PM's team is keen that the emphasis on Europe in the early part of this parliament does not dominate the whole of his second term.

    Today David Cameron will address welfare. The development this weekend is an unambiguous commitment from George Osborne and Iain Duncan Smith that they are doing the full £12bn of welfare cuts. This may seem to you to be a little dog-bites-man, given it was in their manifesto... Except that there had been deep disquiet in Tory ranks about doing the full £12bn. The first month after the Tory election victory was characterised by figures in all wings of the Tory party searching for a way to shelve the pledge. It was the Chancellor that was keenest on doing the full thing. He has won, it seems. Though the cuts will be staggered between the Budget, and the Autumn spending review.

    Today we are getting rhetoric from the PM rather than detail but he seems to be making public the idea Newsnight broke last week - that some £5-£8bn of tax credits are on the table. We reported that the option being looked at is to take tax credits back to the level they were last at in 2003-2004 when Gordon Brown began to significantly ramp them up. Tories think this regime has "papered over the cracks" of poverty in this country rather than exposed it.

    Shortly David Cameron will say there is "complacency in how we approach the issue of low pay” and an end to the "merry go round" where people are taxed then given money back in tax credits.

    When we did this story last Wednesday there was a sharp intake of breath from analysts we contacted. So many of those affected were in work, they said, that  it would be an attack on the working people the Tories are now targeting with their "One nation Conservatism". And indeed it is the case that working people will be hit.

    I wonder if the missing part of the jigsaw will be new responsibilities placed on companies to pay nearer to a living wage? Tory sources make clear to me that firms should be paying more now that Britain's economy is healthier. Even Labour politicians admit that by the state topping up wages during the new Labour years, firms were allowed to get away with paying less. Recently Campaign group Citizens UK showed that workers at big firms in the UK had also received about £11bn by state tax credits. This is why people charge that big firms have been "subsidised".

    Critics point out that cutting tax credits would plunge 300,000 children into poverty. This is a figure from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Many Tories say this wouldn't be the case if firms stepped in to pay a higher wage. But there is also a view inside government that definitions of child poverty are also wrong. Former director of Policy Exchange, and one of the sharpest analysts of welfare, Neil O'Brien, has been the Chancellor's policy adviser since the end of 2012. In 2010 and well before he went in to Number 11, he wrote this and it is interesting reading: Find it here.

    I know the Chancellor would like to unwind Gordon Brown's tax credit regime. We'll see in the Budget in a fortnight if he does. And if he does, exactly how.

  324. Word of the day: Zangengeburt

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent in Athens

    EU and Greek flags
    Image caption: Greek debt talks with EU leaders reach a critical stage tonight

    Last night the Chief of Staff, of the European Commission, Martin Selmayr tweeted that: "New Greek proposal received @JunckerEU, @Lagarde,@ecb. Good basis for progress at tomorrow's EuroSummit. In German "eine Zangengeburt."

    It means a birth using forceps. And that's what seems to be happening in Brussels. The delivery of the deal is fraught and difficult but progressing.

    Markets are up strongly on the suggestion of a compromise. Greece appears to be prepared to strike a six month extension to its current arrangements and to cross some "red lines" on pensions and tax in return for immediate funding and possibly future talks on debt relief.

    Meanwhile in Athens the image of the day is foreign journalists filming cash machines. Billions of euros have been withdrawn, but so far today there isn't any sign of panic.

  325. Anish Kapoor sculpture vandalised

    Robert Morgan, Assistant Editor BBC Newsnight

    Vandalised Anish Kapoor scupture

    Vandals have spray-painted a controversial sculpture by Sir  Anish Kapoor  in the garden of the Palace of Versailles.   The huge red metal work called "Dirty Corner" resembles a gaping cavern. It has been dubbed ``vagina of the queen'' by critics, and was sprayed with yellow paint by unknown vandals.

    Kapoor is arriving in Versailles today to inspect the work, and decide what to do next.  In a written statement for Newsnight Kapoor said:  "The vicious voice of the few has commanded too much of the debate and has even drawn in good thinking people. It has now resulted in an act of vandalism to the work. I am left with a question about how I should react. Should the paint that has been thrown all over the sculpture be removed? Or should the paint remain and be part of the work? Does the political violence of the vandalism make Dirty Corner “dirtier”? 

    Does this dirty political act reflect the dirty politics of exclusion, marginalisation, elitism, racism, Islamophobia etc. The question I ask of myself is: can I the artist transform this crass act of political vandalism and violence into a public creative aesthetic act? Would this not then be the best revenge?"

    You can watch a recent Newsnight interview with Sir Anish Kapoor below. He was speaking about his work with our Culture Correspondent, Stephen Smith.

    You will soon be able to read Sir Anish Kapoor's statement about the attack on his sculpture in full on his website:

    View more on youtube
  326. EU plan to deal with migrant crisis

    Robert Morgan, Newsnight Assistant Editor

    The EU is set to launch a naval mission on Monday against gangs smuggling migrants from Libya but it will be limited to intelligence-gathering for now because of a lack of UN authority or Libyan consent. 

     The operation is part of an increased European response to a wave of thousands of people from Africa and the Middle East making the dangerous crossing from Libya to Europe. Many have drowned in the Mediterranean, including around 800 killed in a shipwreck in April. 

    British and European warships are once again conducting search and rescue missions in the southern Mediterranean. The operation known as Mare Nostrum was stopped last year and during that time one boat stepped in to fill the void - a retired fishing trawler specially converted to a search and rescue ship. It is run by a privately-funded organisation called MOAS - Migrant Offshore Aid Station, Newsnight reporter Gabriel Gatehouse got exclusive access to one of the biggest rescue operations in recent years. You can view his powerful film below.

    View more on youtube
  327. PM urges Muslims to resist extremism

    Richard Watson, Newsnight correspondent

    David Cameron

    So the Prime Minister has nailed his colours firmly to the mast in one of the most contentious debates of recent years in counter-terrorism circles. Are extremists who stand against British democratic values of plurality, democracy and tolerance - but who outwardly reject violence - part of the problem or part of the solution to the terrorist threat? And the answer is…they’re very much part of the problem.

    In a speech at a security conference in Europe today, the Prime Minister says: “we must do more to confront ISIL’s poisonous Islamist extremist ideology if we are to protect our countries from one of the biggest threats our world has faced”.

    David Cameron says the recent cases of the young Briton who became a suicide bomber for the so-called Islamic State and the three mothers from Bradford who seem to have taken their children to live under IS in Syria “highlight how our young people can slide from one form of extremism to another, from non-violent to violent.”

    He goes on to state the cause is “ideological”. And there are plenty of people who’ll agree with that. Make no mistake. These people believe fervently that they are carrying out God’s will. Their views on Islam – and humanity – may be rejected by the vast majority, but for them they are doing the right thing by supporting the Caliphate. 

    The Prime Minister goes on to say something more controversial: “…if you’re a troubled boy who is angry at the world or a girl looking for an identity, for something to believe in and there’s something that is quietly condoned online or perhaps even in parts of your local community then it’s less of a leap to go from a British teenager to an ISIL fighter or an ISIL wife than it would be for someone who hasn’t been exposed to these things”.

    So, effectively, he is saying that the non-violent “mood music” of political and social extremism in some fundamentalist, conservative Muslim circles has set the scene for some young people to choose Islamic State over Britain.

    In other words, have people living in  the UK who urge people not to vote, have prescriptive ideas about women and who believe homosexuals will burn in hell, for example, played a role in radicalizing a new generation?

    A few years ago, I made a Panorama film called “Muslim First, British Second”. If your first allegiance is to a radical, minority project to create the perfect Caliphate overseas, as they believe is foretold in the Qu’ran, then how does that square with contributing to life in the UK? If you oppose British values because you think they’re “un-Islamic” does that help drive some people into the arms of Islamic State?

    It’s what Michael Gove referred to recently as "draining the swamp" to tackle the extremist threat here in the UK. I was once told by a former chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) that the decision to allow Islamic fundamentalists free rein here in the late 1990s was a “failure of imagination”. And then before Syria (which “changed everything” as one of my sources says) non-violent extremists were sometimes even courted by government in the hope that they would be reduce the terror threat here.

    It seems the government now believes this was a second, great failure of imagination. The pendulum has now swung completely the other way and the government is signaling a tougher, more muscular approach to asserting core democratic values and the responsibilities which come with a British passport.

  328. Endgame for Greece

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Greek and EU flags

    Over the next four days the situation in Greece will move quickly.

    Its been widely reported that yesterday a senior official at the ECB questioned whether the Greek banks would be able to open to Monday.

    Banks have long been Greece's Achilles' Heel, the weakest part of the economy.  Over the last few months increased uncertainty about Greece's future in the Euro and fears over the imposition of capital controls have led to a slow burning "jog" on the banks.

    Around 200 to 300 million Euros a day have been withdrawn since late last year.  In recent days the pace has picked up - a reported  three billion euros have been withdrawn in the last four days.

    With reports that the central bank is doubtful about their ability to open on Monday, the pace could pick up further today and this weekend.

    The ECB has been keeping the banks alive by replacing the lost deposit with emergency funding known as ELA (emergency liquidity assistance).

    Each Wednesday the ECB for weeks the ECB has slowly increased the amount of ELA available to the Greek banks by a billion or two euros, keeping the banks alive if not exactly healthy.

    Faced with a big increased in outflows since Wednesday - an emergency call is being held today to extend ELA again (possibly by quite a lot) to keep the banks open.

    That might be enough. Or it might not - many serious bank analysts now expect an enforced bank holiday to buy time in the days ahead.

    But whatever happens now, the Greek government find themselves in an awful position ahead of Monday's talks. Without massive support from one of their creditors, their banking system will collapse.

    The choice on Monday now lies clearly before Syriza - acknowledge that power reality and compromise hugely to stay in the Euro and keep that support or take the other road - default, capital controls, probable bank nationalisation and Euro exit.

    Two weeks ago in Athens I said that there where two variables to watch now: Greek bank deposits and Greek public opinion. The first is moving and the second could follow.

    We've had five months of missed deadlines. This is now the endgame.

  329. Friday 19th June

  330. Deal or no deal?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Yanis Varoufakis
    Image caption: Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis

    Another "crucial" summit, another "final deadline" and still no deal in Greece. As was widely predicted today's meeting of Eurozone finance ministers ended without agreement.

    The creditors say that the current Greek proposals don't go far enough and they are unwilling to extent Greece's current financing programme. Without new financing, Greece will be unable to make payments to its lenders due at the end of the month.

    A Eurozone heads of government has been called for Monday evening and the institutions formerly known as the Troika want new Greek proposals before then.

    With the clock ticking towards a Greek default and possible Euro-exit, there are plenty of grounds for pessimism. For starters, the creditors seem to have reached new levels of frustration with the Greek side: IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that progress would only come when "adults where in the room" (who on earth could this be a dig at?), whilst eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem called for the Greek government to be "honest" with its own people. Trust between the two sides seems thin on the ground.

    That said there are some reasons for optimism to - the differences between the two sides are not as wide as they once were and it is unlikely that a summit would have been called for Monday if both sides thought a deal was impossible.

    Back on the 16th of February a stormy Eurogroup meeting (which had been billed as a "last chance for a deal" - aren't they always?) fell apart without agreement. An agreement was reached four days later at a hastily arranged meeting following new Greek proposals.

    What seems to have prompted the Greek change of heart back in February was worries about the health of its banking system.

    Once again money is leaving the Greek banks at a rapid pace - a reported €3bn Euros this week alone. 

    The outflow of deposits represents the biggest risk that this crisis could spiral out of control into a full-on renewed Greek financial collapse and the likely imposition of capital controls. But it might also be that outflow of deposits which forces the concessions needed for a deal. 

  331. How often do athletes miss drugs tests?

    Answer: Barely ever

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    The UK anti doping agency is refusing to confirm whether Mo Farah missed two tests in the run up to London 2012. But they do publish statistics on the number of tests they conduct on their website. 

    I've collated the ones on the number of tests conducted and the number of "whereabouts failures" - basically, athletes missing tests.

    First, the number of tests conducted in each quarter (so we can get some perspective):

    Testing stats
    Image caption: UKAD statistics on number of tests carried out

    Now, here's the number of "whereabouts failures" in each quarter - ie missed tests:

    "Whereabouts failures" statistics from UKAD
    Image caption: "Whereabouts failures" statistics from UKAD

    Notice something about the numbers? Yep, they are very, very low. In some cases, single figures.

    Just to visualise it, here's a chart of the number of tests and the number of whereabouts failures in Q2 2012:

    Tests and whereabouts failures

    Unfortunately I can't find any more in depth statistics (if UKADA are reading, please do send!), but this very cursory analysis suggests that if Mo Farah did miss two tests, it would have been a very unusual event.

  332. EU referendum rumbling

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    The EU referendum bill rumbles on through Parliament today. Labour abstentions meant it emerged unscathed from a 27 strong eurosceptic rebellion on the purdah period before the election. But, talking to Conservative MPs, it really does feel like the rebellious can has merely been kicked down the legislative road.

    "We have been promised very concrete steps in the report stage [on purdah]" said one backbench MP who chose not to rebel with the 27 but was sympathetic to their cause. "Specific boundaries and parameters" still need to be laid out on the purdah period. Eurosceptic MPs "accepted the government assurances" last time but if they don't get more there are "quite a few" more that are willing to rebel. And remember that in the last Parliament showed us that around 100 MPs have it in them to rebel on Europe.

    Ultimately, if Labour choose not to actively vote against the Government, there's not a lot those Eurosceptic rebels can achieve in practice. But at the very least, it's further confirmation that without significant movement on purdah, the Government will be starting the Parliament with a lot of ill will from its minuscule majority.

  333. Very courageous, Minister...

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, has been meeting with the EU Parliament President Martin Schulz. Schulz is going to be the toughest egg for No.10 crack, he is apparently dead-set against any substantial British-led EU reform.

    Diplomats employ a famously delicate use of language. Productive usually means something went well, spirited or firm usually means a slanging match. The Foreign Secretary has gone for another slippery term, "interesting". We can infer from that that it wasn't exactly a meeting of minds.

    FCO
  334. Country comes first

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Looks like Liz Kendall has wasted no time in making the most of her most effective broadside against Andy Burnham in last night's Newsnight Labour leadership debate.

    Liz Kendall poster
  335. The real elections

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    BBC

    The general election, figuratively and literally is just so last month. This month is the real deal. The results of the select committee chairmanship elections have been announced.

    These mean very, very little to the world outside Westminster but within political Hogwarts they're a pretty big deal. These committees are charged with detailed scrutiny of government departments and legislation, set their own terms and inquiries and are increasingly a source of endless trouble for governments civil service and companies. 

    So this Westminster version of electing prefects is more important than it might seem. Although these elected parliamentarians seemed quite reluctant to put themselves up for another election, no ballot was necessary for twelve committees, where there was just one candidate for each chair. That's despite the fact it's worth your while; the chairs are paid an extra £14,876 on top of their salaries along with extra staff. 

     Here are the details:

    Treasury: Andrew Tyrie (C)

    Home Affairs: Keith Vaz (L)

    Foreign Affairs: Crispin Blunt (C)

    Health: Sarah Wollaston (C)

    Work and Pensions: Frank Field (L)

    Culture, Media and Sport: Jesse Norman (C)

    Education: Neil Carmichael (C)

    Business: Iain Wright (L)

    International Development: Stephen Twigg (L)

    Defence: Julian Lewis (C)

    Energy: Angus McNeil (SNP)

    Scotland: Pete Wishart (SNP)

    Transport: Louise Ellmann (L)

    Welsh: David TC Davies (C)

    Public Accounts: Meg Hillier (L)

    Justice: Bob Neill (C)

    Local Govt: Clive Betts (L)

    No enormous surprises. Gisela Stuart had been widely tipped for the prestigious public affairs committee  but although she came out ahead in the first round, ended up behind Meg Hillier when all the other candidates had been eliminated. Foreign affairs was a close run thing, with Nadhim Zahawi only a handful of votes behind Crispin Blunt. For Frank Field, it's back to the future, he chaired the equivalent committee for a decade until 1997 when he became a minister in the first Blair government. Jesse Norman will oversee BBC charter renewal, unlike the Secretary of State, John Whittingdale, he is not a noted critic of the BBC aside from the organisation's lack of presence in the Midlands, where he is an MP. The Lib Dems, shorn of 90% of their MPs, get nothing. 

  336. No dead expected at crunch summit...

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    It's good to know that relations haven't become too frayed. 

  337. The end of manels?

    Hannah MacInnes, Newsnight Planning Editor

    The Most Powerful Women

    It’s that time of the year again, when I find myself in a room full of the most awe inspiring group of women imaginable at the Fortune Most Powerful Women event. I am feeling hugely humble (but also, when it comes to the moment the microphone is handed round and we all have to stand up and introduce ourselves, pretty humiliated).

    “Hi my name is Ana Botin, I’m the CEO of Santander” … “Good morning I’m Carolyn McCall – CEO of Easy Jet” …. “Hello my name is Alison Saunders, I’m the Director of Public Prosecutions” … “Hi there I am Iris Knobloch, President of Warner Bros. Entertainment, France” “I’m Roz Savage, I rowed solo across the Atlantic“ etc...

    Not enviable following that.  "Um I’m Hannah MacInnes – Planning Editor at BBC’s Newsnight and if I can get any of you to agree to come on the programme it would make my day."

    I have tried to make it my mission over the years to do something about the frustrating predominance of all male discussions. The recent coverage of a Tumblr blog featuring numerous photos of manels as they are now known has however, confirmed my feeling that, though we may have got off to a good start, we're not doing well. Nowhere near as well as we should be. 

    We invited The Guardian’s Zoe Williams, Isabel Hardman of The Spectator and Dame Esther Rantzen onto the programme to ask why we were faced with this problem.  It’s unnerving at first said Esther but “once you’re in the waters lovely”

    So why is it that it is a struggle to get women – or at least a wider selection of women - onto the programme?

    All too often, after speaking to a brilliant woman over the phone, the conversation goes the same way. So, I ask, please will you come on and say that tonight? A pause and then: “I am so sorry I can’t tonight, and I am not sure I’m quite right if honest, but I do have a colleague who would be perfect for this”, okay, I know what’s coming, what’s their name? And without fail a Robert, David, John, Ian … in short a man is proffered as a better alternative.  I don’t want Robert or James – I want you!

    However if this one room at The Rosewood Hotel is anything to go by, there is no excuse for it - there are countless phenomenal, confident, articulate, inspiring women out there who would swim brilliantly – to use Esther's analogy - it is up to us producers to make much more effort to find them, to let them know the water is there and we would love them to dive in.

  338. Parliamentary reform

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Parliament

    What to do about the crumbling Houses of Parliament? Last year Newsnight revealed  not just the extent of the damage to the building, but that the restoration bill could be more than three billion pounds.

    The official report into the potential cost is out today, but the conversation about how to preserve this beautiful, important, yet unpopular institution is just getting going. And Building work is not expected to start until 2020!

    View more on youtube
  339. Sharpening the knives

    Labour likes to stick with its leaders

    Chris Cook

    Newsnight Policy Editor

    Leadership debaters

    The most striking element of the Newsnight Labour leadership debate came in the candidates' answers to our own Laura Kuenssberg, who ended the quizzing with a simple question: would you be willling to resign before the next general election if it looks like Labour are not going to win with you as leader?

    The answers, in order, ran:

    • Liz Kendall: Yes. because more than anything, I want Labour to win so we can change the country... There are some MPs who are talking about having a new process whereby if colleagues think you're not doing well enough, you can go. I have to go through that as a local Labour MP. We should have that for the Labour leadership, too..." 
    • Jeremy Corbyn: "I think there should be an opportunity to elect or not elect the Labour leader every one or two years..." 
    • Andy Burnham: "Of course, there should. Yes is the answer to your question... The party already has that rule, . The debate maybe is: 'do you make that easier.' The party comes first, always."
    • Yvette Cooper: "The party already has rules to do that kind of thing... [After the leadership election] our focus has to be holding the Tories to account." Pressed by Laura about a rule change, she stuck to her guns: "It's up to the Labour party to choose and not for us."

    Quite striking. Kendall and Corbyn were both game for a formal process. Burnham suggested the current process perhaps just needed a tweak, to which he seemed open. Cooper, however, was unconvinced of the need for a change and seemed unwilling to commit to helping would-be usurpers.

    This is not an academic question. A decent portion of Labour's parliamentary party has been plotting to topple whoever leader with only a few breaks since 2005. But after one sort-of successful coup (which led to the staged departure of Tony Blair), there were only ever limp lunges at Gordon Brown or Ed Miliband. 

    In truth, Labour's last clean coup was against George Lansbury in 1935. The circumstances were odd: his pacifism was ill-suited to mid-1930s Europe. And the man who wielded the knife was one of Labour's toughest ever operators - Ernie Bevin, then the general secretary of the Transport and General Workers' Union. 

    Ernest Bevin, TGWU general secretary, pictured here as foreign secretary
    Image caption: Ernest Bevin, TGWU general secretary, pictured here in 1949 as foreign secretary
  340. This wasn't a debate

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    BBC

    We've heard a lot from the Labour party about how there needs to be a full and frank debate about why the party lost. That every voice must be heard. That's why Jeremy Corbyn got on the ballot.

    If that is what the party wants and needs tonight was something of a lost opportunity. Because it wasn't really a debate, it was almost like a series of one on one interviews with the audience. 

    The four candidates almost totally refused to discuss the issues with each other or mark out explicit dividing lines between them despite the best efforts of Laura and the studio audience. Instead they chose to do so only implicitly, Liz Kendall talking about not willing to fight for a world "which no longer exists" (presumably a rebuke to Corbyn) or Yvette subtly alluding to Kendall's lack of experience.

    Only once or twice did any interaction occur at all, Kendall saying that "I disagree with Jeremy" on benefits and Yvette and Kendall calling Burnham out on his "the party must come first" line. 

    That's not to say we didn't learn anything. The dividing lines are more assured, each candidate fitting slightly more snugly in the camp we already thought they were in. We now know Burnham and Kendall would support a review into their leadership if they were behind the Tories and Yvette wouldn't. And yet and yet and yet...if the Labour party really wants that full debate, to really fill in the blanks, then in hustings to come, they might try by getting their candidates to have more of a conversation, not only with the public, but also with each other.

  341. Eyes down for a full house

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    I mean obviously Newsnight's Labour leadership hustings are fun enough on their own. But in case you need something to help ease the hour by (aside from a bottle of chianti) then here's your handy Labour leadership hustings bingo slip:

    BBC

    The winner to receive 100 free copies of this

  342. Labour leadership profiles: Andy Burnham

    The burden of being front runner

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Andy Burnham
    Image caption: Andy Burnham

    Andy Burnham is seen in many circles as being the front runner for the Labour leadership running into this race. It is a simple fact that he achieved the most nominations amongst the Parliamentary party. And his background as the shadow health secretary, railing against the Coalition and Conservative reforms to the NHS has stood him in good stead with the activists that vote in this election.

    Rather like Yvette Cooper, he's made an effort to reach out to all parts of the party - he has been careful to emphasise the importance of the party understanding people's concerns on immigration, and uses the language of aspiration, but backs the 50p tax rate - issues that appeal to different wings of his party.

    But Burnham's easy left-of-centre populism can come with its own problems.

    One of the Burnham interviews I remember most strongly (admittedly partly because I happened to be the producer) was with Kirsty Wark on Newsnight before the election. Burnham had railed against the privatisation of the NHS at Labour conference after Labour conference, each time sending his audience into greater paroxysms of delight. 

    So Kirsty showed him a chart - illustrating how outsourcing in the NHS had increased over the last few years. She asked him a very simple question: under Labour, would outsourcing go up? Or would it go down? It's fair to say he struggled to respond clearly - not what you'd expect after all those soaring speeches. Perhaps Burnham was more willing to let in private provision than he'd made out.

    Now, perhaps it's unfair of me to bring this up. It was months ago after all, under a different leader. 

    But let me whizz you forward to the recent GMB Labour Leadership hustings. Burnham said when questioned on the benefits cap: “In principle, it’s not right that people on benefits get more than they are likely to earn in a lifetime.” It's fair to say this did not go down particularly well there. 

    Andy Burnham is the front runner for a reason. He's more experienced than Kendall, more credible than Corbyn, and more popular with his Parliamentary colleagues than Cooper. 

    But the challenge for him tonight in Nuneaton is not to have one of those moments – like the NHS with Kirsty or benefits at the GMB hustings. The problem with being front runner is that you have rather a lot of votes to lose.

  343. Odds on tonight's Labour debate in Nuneaton

    Odds in Nuneaton
  344. Just don't mention 1997

    Ian Katz

    Newsnight Editor

    All the residents of Nuneaton I have met so far today have been perfectly friendly but Charlotte Higgins, author of the excellent BBC history, The New New Noise, reminded me this evening that relations between the BBC and the Midlands town have not always been so cordial.

    Back in 1957 Slim Hewitt, a reporter for the Tonight programme, a precursor to Newsnight, visited the town and filed a report which left the BBC about as popular here as The Sun on Merseyside. I can't find a record of exactly what Hewitt said about The town but in a 2013 report in the Nuneaton News (following the profoundly unfair shortlisting of Nuneaton on a list of 100 "crap towns") one resident, Colin Bishop is quoted saying:

     “It is a national occupation, ‘knocking Nuneaton’ has been since the BBC Tonight programme came to town in 1957... Slim Hewitt the reporter was very sarcastic about Nuneaton and referred to George Eliot as a man."

    Higgins records that: "The files of [Tonight] programme correspondence show how controversial Tonight could be – there was an almost endless stream of letters from the town clerk of Nuneaton, for example, in autumn 1957, taking exception to a film on the town that had been, according to a memo written by a senior BBC executive, deliberately 'sardonically humorous and unfair'."

    The Newsnight team will strenuously avoid saying anything sardonically humorous or unfair about Nuneaton, or referring to George Eliot as a man, tonight. But if you know any more about how Slim Hewitt so enraged the burghers of the town that gave us not just George Eliot but Mary Whitehouse and Larry Grayson too, please let me know - it might help us to avoid the same fate.

  345. Leader profiles: Jeremy Corbyn

    Does the PLP REALLY want a "proper debate"?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Jeremy Corbyn
    Image caption: Jeremy Corbyn

    Jeremy Corbyn's success in getting over the nominations line was heralded by many in Labour as a victory for the party "having a proper debate" over its future. It's my general observation that leadership and deputy leadership candidates tend to start using language like "having a proper debate" when they've realised that they're trying to dodge the question they've actually been asked.

    But there is an irony here - whilst Jeremy Corbyn has been the apotheosis of the "need to have a proper debate" meme, he is, as far as I can see, the candidate least likely to dodge a question. Why?

    Because Jeremy Corbyn is, as has been well covered, an unapologetic member of Labour's left. He wants to ditch austerity, is a big fan of the unions, get rid of Trident, and believes we should be trumpeting the benefits of migrants.

    Everybody knows what Jeremy Corbyn thinks - including Jeremy himself.

    The problem is, for years, being on the left in the Labour Party has been a guaranteed ticket to relative obscurity. The conventional wisdom since the 1980s has been that the votes simply aren't there to support a full blown, unabashed socialist Labour party.

    The polls suggest the conventional wisdom is right.

    But tonight Jeremy Corbyn has the chance to prove it wrong. 

    Let's suppose, on the off chance, that he goes down a storm in Nuneaton. That after 30 years of centrist(ish) politics, what middle England wants is a proper socialist. And that Corbyn ends up winning the leadership. It would be a vindication for the Labour left. 

    But one wonders how many of the Parliamentary Party would start regretting those worthy statements about "having a proper debate" that got him on the ballot paper in the first place.

  346. Who would want to be deputy leader?

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    William Riker
    Image caption: One famous deputy

    Clement Attlee. Richard Nixon. Nick Clegg. William T Riker. Paul Nuttall.

    Which of the five Labour deputy candidates will join this illustrious list in a few months time?

    And why would they want it?

    At one time or another, all famous deputies probably come to resent not sitting in the big chair themselves. John Nance Garner, the  Vice-President to FDR famously famously remarked that the vice-presidency "isn't worth a bucket of warm piss." I would never dream of saying the same of the Labour deputy leadership  but if any of the candidates see the job as a potential springboard to yet greater things, they can probably think again. 

    Of the sixteen Labour party deputy leaders since the great John Robert Clynes, only two, Clement Attlee and Michael Foot have gone on to be elected leader. That wasn't for lack of talent, previous occupants of the office include Nye Bevan, George Brown, Roy Jenkins, Denis Healey, to name but a few. Yet none of them, for whatever reason made the final great leap forward. Perhaps because deputy leaders become so identified with their leaders, whenever a time does come for a change they seem a little ancien regime.

    But perhaps they don't want it anyway; the role within the Labour party and the sort of people it attracts seems to have changed. Once upon a time frontbenchers who clearly coveted the big job went for it, like some of those mentioned above. Increasingly though,  the job is pitched as a "campaigning" role. A way of guaranteeing yourself influence in the party, a seat around the cabinet table but not necessarily greater reward besides; Harriet Harman was even denied the title of Deputy Prime Minister under Gordon Brown. Indeed, the young bucks likely to run if the leaders job came up again, Tristram Hunt, Chuka Umunna, Rachel Reeves aren't running for it and nor is it likely that Angela Eagle, Tom Watson or Caroline Flint think it likely they'll be leader in the future.

    Still, sometimes it can work out, there was once a talented young deputy to some obscure figure called Alex Salmond who I hear isn't doing too badly at the moment.

  347. Osborne PMQs welfare statistic

    A bit misleading

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    George Osborne

    I'm slightly late to this - but Osborne today said at PMQs that the UK represented 1% of world population, 4% of world GDP, and 7% of global welfare spend.

    Strictly speaking, this is true. 

    But it's a bit misleading.

    The implication is that the UK's welfare spending is out of kilter with its size - we are spending too much on it.

    That may well be true - but this isn't the statistic I'd use to demonstrate it. Why?

    Because it's only when countries become pretty well off that they can afford to spend any significant chunk of money on welfare. Putting countries like Zimbabwe into the figure (as you do with global welfare spend) just skews the numbers - unless you think that Zimbabwe would choose not to have a welfare state if it could afford one. Which the evidence of the last couple of centuries in the Western world suggests not.

    The evidence is that, generally speaking, as countries get richer, they can afford to and choose to spend more money on welfare in both absolute and proportionate terms. Germany, for example, represents 13% of global social security expenditure, France 10%, the US 19% and Japan 11%.*

    When compared with other advanced economies, on George Osborne's own metric (which for the reasons I've stated isn't necessarily a particularly useful one) we appear to be a model of restraint on welfare spending.

    *Figures from the World Bank

  348. Leader profiles: Yvette Cooper

    Safety first?

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Yvette Cooper meeting tech entrepreneurs
    Image caption: Yvette Cooper meeting tech entrepreneurs

    Yvette Cooper has a pretty strong claim to being the most experienced of the candidates. Yes, Jeremy Corbyn has been an MP for longer. But he's not been Secretary of State and Work and Pensions or Chief Secretary to the Treasury.

    That last position rather illustrates the downside of experience. She was right in the thick of the Brown administration from 2008-9. Whatever you think about the merits or demerits of Brown's bailouts and macroeconomic management, it makes it rather difficult for Cooper to disassociate herself from Labour's economic policy in the Brown Government - and harder for her to present herself as a change candidate.

    Her slightly awkward pitch on the "did Labour spend too much" question is a product of this history. "Ideally, it should have been in surplus", she told Newsnight "However, what was the consequence of that? Tories want to say that the consequence was that it either cause the financial crisis which it didn't.. Or that it made it harder to deal with the financial crisis which it also didn't". 

    Cooper's campaign, then, has necessarily had fewer radical flashes and bangs than, say, Kendall's has had.

    But one can't help thinking, looking down the list of public policy statements she has made recently, that she is genuinely trying to pitch to all parts of the party.

    She backs the 50p tax rate (appeals to the left) 

    But also backs keeping corporation tax at 20% (appeals to the right)

    She says the free schools "experiment" hasn't worked.

    But the party shouldn't be "squeamish" about controls on immigration.

    One of her big pitches is for a Scandinavian style universal child care system - which is a fairly straightforward bit of social democracy.

    Cooper's campaign might not be desperately challenging to the views of Labour membership. But they are, you know, the actual electorate in this leadership contest.

    For her, tonight is an opportunity for her to show why her experience matters. As one of the two front runners after the nominations process, her first priority will be not to say anything stupid - she has less to gain from flat out controversialism. But the bigger goal will be for her to exude that most difficult to pin down of properties - being "Prime Ministerial" not just for Labour members, but for swing voters in places like Nuneaton. If she can do that, Labour voters might start thinking that this is the person that really could lead them into No 10. 

  349. Countdown to the big event

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Can you believe it? It's less than four hours to go until Newsnight's Labour leadership hustings.

    It's like Christmas eve in the Newsnight office. And doubtless on the streets of Nuneaton too. And here's an early present in your stocking, some pictures of us getting ready:

    BBC
    BBC

    The One Show might be on but there's only one show you'll want to watch. Oh yes. BBC 2. 7pm.   

    A big thanks to Richard Kenny for these no expense spared pictures.

  350. A solution to a three-sided problem?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Greek and EU flags

    To think about whether or not a deal between Greece and its creditors is possible, it’s best to strip the talks down to their fundamentals.

    To hugely over-simplify the fraught negotiations between Greece and its creditors, let’s assume that only two issues are really outstanding – (i) labour market and pension reforms and (ii) debt restructuring.

    That is admittedly a big simplification but not necessarily an over-simplification. What was once the third big difference (the level of Greek primary budget surpluses or, in more emotive language, “austerity”) is no longer a key divide – the two sides are much closer together.

    Now, let’s assume that there are really three sides in the talks that need to reach an agreement: the IMF, the Europeans (here I’m grouping together the EC, the ECB and the other individual Eurozone members) and the Greeks.

    Where do they each stand on the two key issues?

    The IMF think that Greece should carry out reforms to its labour market and pension system.  They also think that Greek government debt needs to be restructured.

    The Europeans also want the same kind of labour market and pension reforms as the IMF but are against a debt restructuring (not an easy thing to sell to their domestic audiences).

    The Greek government don’t want to carry out the IMF/European recommended labour market and pension reforms but clearly do want a debt restructuring.

    Which really only leaves one potential way of out this mess: the IMF position. An offer of labour market and pension reform plus debt restructuring may be the only sellable deal in the longer term.

    That’s a win for both Greece (on debt) and the Europeans (on reform) and also a defeat for both of them too. That’s what a compromise looks like.

    Of course just because such a deal is possible doesn’t mean it’ll happen.

  351. Post update

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Newsnight Labour Leadership debate
  352. PMQs review: a shaky dress rehearsal

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    Two groups of people will be thrilled with today's PMQs. The first is Hillary Benn, whose sober and serious questioning of George Osborne doubtless impressed his colleagues. The second will be Westminster hacks and sketch writers, who can console themselves that Hillary Benn (acting today as the stand in for the stand in) will probably never do it again. 

    As refreshing as the serious questioning is, it doesn't make great copy.

    But it worked extremely well in the chamber. The Chancellor, in his debut as the new William Hague with hair, was deprived of his raison d'etre, which is to bellow "'Long term economic plan" at every opportunity.Instead he was forced to defend detailed policy on foreign and security affairs on IS and Mediterranean migration, not his home turf by any means.

    Nonetheless Osborne can comfort himself that he got through it, albeit with his performance characterised by more than a whiff of Gordon Brown. Once again the Chancellor showed himself to be the true heir of the former Labour prime minister, his answers replete with pre-prepared and ill-timed jokes ("there are no Benns in the leadership contest but plenty of Bennites") and reams of endless statistics on employment figures, regional growth and pig-iron production.

    Interestingly, the great blonde mop was no-where to be seen. Perhaps Boris couldn't bear to see another of the Tory enfants-terribles settle in at the dispatch box as a prime ministerial understudy.  Perhaps the Mayor's best hope is for that infamous "Long Term Economic Plan" to be be blown off course between now and the next Tory leadership contest. In truth, that, or another omnishambles type budget, might be the only thing to derail the Chancellor from moving next door and doing PMQs on a much more regular basis. 

    Backbencher of the week- Tom Brake: Spare a thought for poor Tom Brake, today the only Lib Dem in the chamber. He could be a character in the next series of Little Britain. Or not.

    George Osborne
  353. Greece: Inching towards a deal?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Greek and EU flag

    It's the day before the latest "crunch" talks on Greece and a few optimistic straws are in the wind. As tweeted by Eurozone analyst Yannis Koutsomitis:

    That's a significant statement, it's caveated as "intentions" can of course change, but that seems to be ruling out of new elections or a referendum in Greece.   Given that Syriza does not believe they have a mandate for a Euro exit, that may signal an intention to do a deal. 

    Two comments today from Valdis Dombrovskis (the European Commission Vice President responsible for the Euro) offer further grounds for optimism and a clue as to what a deal might look like.

    In other words - if Greece can't accept further pension cuts, then it may be able to propose another way to make the fiscal numbers add up. 

    And if Greece is looking for an area to cut, there is an elephant in the room. 

    Greece is one of very few countries to meet the NATO defence spending target of 2.0% of GDP. 

    Of course cutting defence spending would present it's own political problems in Greece, the current Defence Minister is the leader of Syriza's coalition partners the nationalist Independent Greeks.

    And amid the signs for optimism,, it;s very clear today that the path to a deal will not be easy.  

    Without some sort of further debt relief, it's hard to see a deal which is sell-able in Greece.

    In many ways some of the most crucial discussion in the coming days will not be between Greece and its creditors but between the creditors themselves. If the IMF manages to persuade the Europeans to put something explicit on debt relief on the table then a deal could follow relatively quickly. 

  354. Who's Labour talking to?

    Emily Maitlis

    Newsnight Presenter

    Nuneaton as I said on Election night – was the ‘Basildon of 2015’. The moment that told us the Tories were probably going to do it. Tonight, my colleague Laura will be there – Nuneaton not Basildon, putting the Labour leadership contenders through their paces for the very first hustings.

    Tonight, they will speak to a TV audience across the country. But most of it will not get a vote. This is more of a ‘primary’ don’t forget – open to Labour party members, affiliated supporters (ie unions) and registered members.

    So here’s the real test:

    One of the most succinct pieces of post match analysis, in the days after the election came from Will Straw, failed Labour candidate for Rossendale, and son of Jack. He advised Labour supporters to stop asking themselves who they liked, and to go outside and ask their non-Labour neighbour instead.

    That, of course, was how Blair won three times.

    The best chance of Labour winning a General Election again, may be to pick the candidate tonight that leaves them feeling – well – a bit uncomfortable. Once Labour members are out of their comfort zone, perhaps the rest of the country will look back up.

    Newsnight's Labour leadership debate is on BBC2 tonight at 7pm

    Newsnight Labour hustings
  355. Leader profiles: Liz Kendall

    The Blairite who isn't a Blairite. Honest.

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    Liz Kendall
    Image caption: Liz Kendall

    In the run up to the Newsnight Labour Leadership Debate tonight at 7pm on BBC2, we'll be posting profiles of each of the contenders. The first is of Liz Kendall.

    Liz Kendall isn't a Blairite. We know this because she told us so. "Those labels are of the past" she told the press gallery lunch. When Evan suggested to her that she was on the right of the party in her interview on Newsnight last month, she disputed his characterisation.

    Perhaps the label is wrong. But anyone listening to what she's said since the election can be left in little doubt that she wishes Labour to win its elections from the centre ground. When George Osborne suggested his budget surplus law, she flinched not: "Labour should never be in favour of budget deficits for the sake of it. I have no problem aiming for a surplus."

    On the benefits cap, she told Newsnight: "I think it's right to say that if people who are working want to get on in life… people feel very unfairly if people are getting that money and it's not what they get when they're working hard"

    On the top rate of tax: "I don't think that the 50p rate should be permanent... my position is that if you're raising taxes it should be to pay for things", and on the public private split in the NHS she's said "what matters it what works". 

    The list goes on - she supports free schools, 2% of GDP spent on defence, tuition fees and so on. 

    Jeremy Corbyn she is not.

    Her claim is that, as a daughter of Watford and an MP in Leicester she can speak to middle Britain - those mythical creatures that lurk in Conservative Labour marginals (rather like Nuneaton), emerging from their four bed semis every five years or so to, so it is said, decide who governs the country. 

    Perhaps she's right - but first, she has to convince the Labour party membership that they're willing to elect a leader that will, undoubtedly, take them centrewards rather than leftwards.

    The Newsnight hustings, with its audience of voters in Nuneaton, could be something of a litmus test for Kendall. If she's a hit with Nuneaton, it will considerably strengthen her pitch to Labour that she holds the key to electoral success. But if she bombs, there will be those who will wonder what the point is of accepting a candidate that wants to do things that, to many of the party's traditional supporters, might feel rather too centrist.

    Newsnight's Labour leadership debate is at 7pm on BBC2.

  356. It could be you...

    Lewis Goodall

    Newsnight producer

    BBC

    No, this isn't about the Labour leadership contest.  In fact, it seems the only thing harder than getting on the ballot for Labour leader (especially if you're Mary Creagh) is probably winning the lottery. Or at least it will be with the changes which Camelot have announced. They're adding ten numbers to the draw, taking your chances of winning the jackpot from an almost guaranteed one in fourteen million to an only slightly less hopeful one in forty-five million. The jackpot will, however, be much bigger.

    People are crying foul. They need only have looked to Elizabethan England for a much more satisfactory model. Although the first recorded lotteries took place in medieval Italy  (indeed the word lottery comes from the Italian "lotto" meaning destiny or fate) in England first lottery was introduced by Elizabeth I. And just as players today doubtless comfort themselves as they tear up their tickets after yet another loss with the fact that some of the money goes to "good causes" so then, the proceeds were for the "reparation of the havens and strengths of the Realme and towards such other public good works". Or the Royal Navy, in other words (those concerned with our national defence spending falling under 2% of GDP might think of resurrecting this idea).

    And if people today are worried about the price of a ticket going up from one pound to two, spare a thought for the Elizabethan gambler. Tickets cost an exorbitant ten shillings with a top prize of £5,000 (a huge sum). So large that some of it was paid in trinkets, china or tapestries. Even if you struck it rich the prize money was so big that the government took three years to pay it, in increments. In essence it was like a huge interest free loan to the government. 

    Back then, an added sweetener was thrown in. As well as a life of expensive ruffs and the best seats in the Globe, the lucky winner was also exonerated from any crimes the winner had committed (treachery and murder, sadly excluded).

    The government stopped running these lotteries directly after a while, licensing brokers to do it across the country instead. The last one was held in 1826 and those pesky killjoy Victorians banned them. In the meantime though, they'd helped fund the first English settlement in Virginia. And then Virginia lotteries helped fund the Colonial armies. Beat that, Camelot.

  357. All eyes on Nuneaton tonight

    Newsnight Labour leadership debate

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Newsnight Labour Leadership debate

    Every election has a moment where the dye is cast, the concrete is set, the parties wake up and smell the coffee, reality hits home, the metaphors roll on. For Labour, the moment where they realised it had all gone wrong was at about 1am when the Conservatives did not just hold on to the constituency of Nuneaton, they did so with ease, and Ed Miliband’s hopes of entering Number 10 disappeared along with that victory. The Warwickshire constituency is exactly the kind of place Labour has to be able to win if they have any hope of taking back power. 

    So, in a Newsnight special, where better to test out how Labour’s rivals for the top job than Nuneaton itself. The four contenders will take questions from an audience for an hour at BBC 2 on 7pm.

    As we look to the debate,  the race appears to have just entered a rather more vigorous phase, with accusations flying about negative briefings, the left winger Jeremy Corbyn just sneaking on to the ballot paper at the very last minute, the moderniser Liz Kendall who blazed through the first week of the campaign appearing to lose some momentum. And frankly, the two most experienced candidates Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper so far being coy about their big, bold ideas, if indeed they exist. Some MPs in the party seem more interested in constructing a new mechanism for booting the winner out if they disappoint after securing the job.

    And it is the first big chance for the candidates to show to the public how they might perform, and to compare them alongside each other, as the race for one of the country's most important jobs gets underway. Even better, the debate is on at 7pm, so you don't have to stay up wildly late for Nuneaton.

  358. Newsnight Labour leadership hustings tonight

    Allegra Stratton

    Newsnight Political Editor

    Newsnight Labour leadership hustings logo

    Is today the most important day in the Labour leadership race? It's Newsnight's hustings, yes, so this is is a bit self-promoting of me. But it's going to be the first occasion when all Labour activists across the country watch the contenders at the same moment. More importantly - it will be the first chance for the general public to form a view. The influence that has on Labour Party activists is what will be telling. 

    What many senior Labour figures say to me shouldn't be underestimated is how keen their party is to pick someone who will win in 2015. There is little sentimentalism or old loyalties, they say. Some at the top of the party think this could see the activists picking Liz Kendall as someone untainted by 13 years of Labour government. Good cases are also made for Burnham and Cooper. But forget about off the record briefing. What's most critical about this evening, or tomorrow morning more likely, is that Labour activists will get chatter from ordinary non-partisan non-Labour obsessives after this evening's hustings. That will help clarify their decision.

    Labour leader candidates
    Image caption: Labour leadership candidates

    So far, Ed Miliband's leadership selection changes do seem to have changed the nature of these contests. Making union members chose to affiliate is seeing very few union members bother. The figure is running at around 2,500 despite a push by unions. I have spoken to one leadership contender that doesn't think this will last. That the support from union members will come... Just not until the end of the contest in 10 weeks. This compares with around 241,000 individual party members who are eligible to take part. Right now the party activists appear a significant force in this electoral college.  

    You can seen the BBC Newsnight Labour leadership debate on BBC2 at 7pm

  359. Bill Cash on his EU amendment

    "I call that a good day's work"

    Ed Brown

    Newsnight producer

    I've just spoken to Bill Cash, Maastricht rabble rouser and arch eurosceptic, whose hostile amendment to the Government's Bill on an EU referendum attracted 97 votes against 288 for the Government. Labour abstained and the SNP voted with Bill, which implies 30 odd Conservative rebels (we will get a precise number later). This is probably rather bad news for a Government with a single figure majority.

    Anyway - he seemed rather pleased for a man that had just lost a vote. He told me:

    "We made a very substantial point. There are people who agree with us but didn’t want to vote with us. The figures in terms of what people want are much higher than the Conservatives that rebelled today. Look at the 81 MPs that rebelled on Europe in the last Parliament." 

    On his negotiations with the government: "We got quite a lot out of them"

    And in summary: "I call that a good day’s work."

  360. Were you up for Nuneaton?

    Laura Kuenssberg

    Newsnight Chief Correspondent

    Every election has a moment where the dye is cast, the concrete is set, the parties wake up and smell the coffee, reality hits home, the metaphors roll on. For Labour, the moment where they realised it had all gone wrong was at about 1am when the Conservatives did not just hold on to the constituency of Nuneaton, they did so with ease, and Ed Miliband’s hopes of entering Number 10 disappeared along with that victory. The Warwickshire constituency is exactly the kind of place Labour has to be able to win if they have any hope of taking back power. 

    So, in a Newsnight special, where better to test out how Labour’s rivals for the top job than Nuneaton itself. The four contenders will take questions from an audience for an hour at BBC 2 on 7pm.

    As we look to the debate,  the race appears to have just entered a rather more vigorous phase, with accusations flying about negative briefings, the left winger Jeremy Corbyn just sneaking on to the ballot paper at the very last minute, the moderniser Liz Kendall who blazed through the first week of the campaign appearing to lose some momentum. And frankly, the two most experienced candidates Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper so far being coy about their big, bold ideas, if indeed they exist. Some MPs in the party seem more interested in constructing a new mechanism for booting the winner out if they disappoint after securing the job.

    And it is the first big chance for the candidates to show to the public how they might perform, and to compare them alongside each other, as the race for one of the country's most important jobs gets underway. Even better, the debate is on at 7pm, so you don't have to stay up wildly late for Nuneaton.

  361. Can you help?

    Sue Lloyd Roberts
    Image caption: Sue Lloyd Roberts

    Sue Lloyd Roberts is a BBC and ITN legend. She is a brave and tireless campaigner for human rights. She was the first journalist into Homs - smuggled into town in the back of a car. She was given a seven year prison sentence in absentia in China for her reporting on Chinese gulags and still went back there to report despite the risks. Then there are her reports on FGM, Burma, North Korea (for which she won an Emmy award). She has spent her life trying to give vulnerable and repressed people a voice.

    Sadly Sue has a been diagnosed with an aggressive form of leukemia. She’s had two courses of chemo in anticipation of a stem cell transplant and was due to go into hospital last month for a transplant. Unfortunately the donor failed his medical at the last moment. She urgently needs a donor whose tissue type is the same as hers.

    The BBC is going to hold an open day for the AnthonyNolan Trust to come into the BBC – on 22nd June, 10am to 4pm. They will set up on the 2nd floor. People will be asked to give a saliva sample, if they want to become donors. Even if it does not help her, there are 37,000 other people out there waiting so it could help hundreds of other people.

    You have to be under 30 to be able to donate. Please ask any friends and colleagues to sign up – or do forward this to them. Even if people are not BBC we can get them into the building. If you have any questions email james.clayton@bbc.co.uk

    Sue is writing a blog at the moment - you can read it here

  362. What a Greek deal would look like

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    Euros

    I’ve been expecting a deal on Greece for weeks. It hasn’t happened.

    So, at risk of looking silly as the days and weeks drag on and very silly if “Grexit” actually occurs, I thought it was worth briefly setting out why I still think this…

    I don’t think the Greek government actually wants to leave the Euro. In the short to medium term the political and economic costs would be too high and, more fundamentally, it would represent them losing control of the situation. I think it’s a step too far.

    Secondly, I don’t think the creditors want Greece to leave the Euro. The short term contagion risk might be manageable – although it might not be- but in the longer term a Greek exit would send an important signal: the Euro isn’t necessarily forever.

    Given those points, a deal is in both sides interests. I even think it’s possible to imagine what a deal would like: a 6-12 month financing programme for Greece based on them running a 1% primary budget surplus this year and a touch higher next year and a review of the Greek labour market by international experts such as the ILO or the OECD. That could be agreed tomorrow.

    The really contentious outstanding issues are further cuts in Greek pension spending and the question of debt restructuring.  A solution there isn’t unimaginable – Greece could agree to go further on pensions (and they’ve already shifted since January) and in return a timetable for debt restructuring could be agreed.

    If a final sweetener was needed for the Greek side, there’s always the Juncker Plan for a European wide investment programme – direct some of that towards Greece to offset the effects on its own fiscal contraction and call it a “mini-Marshall Plan” if you must.

    That’s a deal which is uncomfortable for Greece (it’s another shorter term fix, the debt reduction would be tied to compliance on reform and austerity won’t be ended) but also uncomfortable for the creditors (more debt reduction, a reversal of some previous reforms and a sense that Greece has been “rewarded for breaking the rules”).

     A deal which is a bit uncomfortable for both sides is exactly what a compromise looks like.

    Just because such a deal can be sketched out doesn’t mean it will happen, but I still think it’s more likely than not.  

  363. Grexit could hit Greek pensions

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  364. How to get a Greek deal

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  365. Greek debt crisis: rhetoric and reality

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

  366. The migrant problem

    Gabriel Gatehouse, Newsnight reporter

    Yet more fraught talks today between EU ministers on the subject of what to do with the thousands of migrants arriving on Europe¹s southern shores. Italy wants other European countries to take their share under a quota system. If they won¹t, Italy says it will "act unilaterally". 

    What might that mean? Well, migrants could be given temporary residence permits, allowing them to travel throughout the Shengen zone (though not to Britain).

    What would be the impact of that? Perhaps not much. Last week I docked in the Sicilian port of Augusta along with 372 migrants from Eritrea who had been rescued from the sea by a privately-funded rescue operation called MOAS (Migrant Offshore Aid Station). 

    You can watch my report on the rescue here.

    Migrants on boat

    Leave aside for a moment the fact that Europe appears to be farming out (some of) its search and rescue duties to an American philanthropist with a converted fishing trawler. 

    Few of the Eritreans wanted to stay in Italy. They were mostly middle-class young men with university degrees looking for jobs. Jobs they thought they¹d not likely find in Sicily. The following day, dozens of them staged a mass breakout from the reception centre in which they were being held. We watched as the Italian police made an extremely half-hearted effort to recapture them.

    I¹ve kept in touch with some of them: one is now in Switzerland; another is in Milan actively working on a plan to smuggle himself into Britain. In the absence of an EU agreement on resettlement, the Italian authorities seem to be giving the migrants a helping hand. 

    We've got a big report on this on Newsnight on Thursday. Do watch if you can.

  367. Greece: what next?

    Duncan Weldon

    Economics correspondent

    For weeks Greece and its creditors have been slowly narrowing their differences, inching closer together. On some of the big fundamental questions the gap is almost gone – they broadly agree on the level of surpluses Greece should be running and on the much contested question of labour market reforms they seem to have found a way to park the issue through a review by the OECD and/or ILO.

    The big gaps now are over the shape of any further fiscal consolidation rather than size (VAT rates and pension reform) and whether there are explicit steps towards debt restructuring. At the moment the talks have hit another impasse.  Both sides are saying they are waiting for the other to make a new offer.

    Eventually something will have to give. There are two possible “somethings” on the horizon.

    (i) A renewed pickup in the flow of money out of Greek banks could force the government’s hand. It was the fear of a bank run that pushed them into a deal back in February.

    (ii) The markets for Spanish, Italian & Portuguese government debt have had a rough few days with the cost of borrowing for those nations rising. For months the markets have behaved as if Greece is a “special case” and that a Greek exit from the Euro would be “manageable”.  As a possible Greek exit looms closer they may be starting to reassess this belief – and any sign that the Greek crisis risks serious financial contagion may prompt the creditors into pushing for a quicker end.

    Greek and EU flags
  368. Missing family

    Secunder Kermani, Newsnight reporter in Bradford

    Children
    Image caption: Sugra Dawood's children

    Today there's going to be a lot of attention on the case of the 12 missing members of the Dawood family from Bradford.  Three sisters - Sugra, Khadija and Zohra - along with their 9 children are feared to be headed to Syria. No-one's heard from them since June 9th  when they flew to Turkey following a pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.

    Last night I briefly spoke to Khadija's husband on the phone. He was understandably very emotional, and through his tears said that he just wanted to send a simple message to Khadija, "I love you, please bring the kids back." He and Sugra's husband sent me these photos of the children in happier times. 

    They want anyone with any information to contact them. We expect more details from relatives later in the day, their hope is that if the women are indeed heading to Syria - then they are still in Turkey and can be brought safely back to Britain.

    Father and his children
    Image caption: Sugra Dawood's children
    Father and his children
    Image caption: Khadija Dawood's children
  369. Labour and purdah

    James Clayton, Newsnight political producer

    Union aJack and EU flags

    Labour is playing a very interesting game on purdah. They've signalled that - if Cameron doesn't want to give in to Eurosceptics on the issue of purdah - they would be willing to abstain from the vote. Interestingly if Cameron does give in and implement purdah, Labour MPs are likely to vote for the amendment. It's pure politicking. An abstention would only be initiated to create maximum friction between backbenchers and the PM.

    Considering it is highly likely that the PM and the leader of the opposition will be campaigning with each other in the referendum it's an interesting window into the current relationship between the respective parties. Some believe there will be an entente cordiale during the campaign between "in" Tories and the vast bulk of the Labour shadow frontbench. No sign of that yet. 

    Pat McFadden, Labour's shadow Europe minister said this morning that the government had made a "hash" of the referendum so far.