Covid in Scotland: Deaths rise & five-tier alert system

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Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at St Andrews University and also a member of the UK government's advisory body Sage, says it is vital that people can see their actions in following Covid guidelines are having an effect.

He tells BBC Scotland the government has to be clear that by the WHO definition - less than 5% of cases being positive - the virus is officially "out of control" because "we are way above that".

Prof Reicher cites a study that showed the "perception" that restrictions are effective is the most important thing in compliance.

"People are prepared to put up with things, as long as it is having an effect," he says.

Psychologically it is harder when your actions might not have an effect for several weeks, but it is "really important that we do realise our actions have consequences", he adds.

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STV's Louise Scott also asks the first minister how much progress would need to seen before the central belt could move more in line with the rest of the country in terms of restrictions.

Nicola Sturgeon explains that many factors are considered - cases per 100,000 people, the rolling seven-day average, the lag indicator, hospital and ICU admissions and deaths, the capacity of the health service.

"There are no hard and fast absolute triggers that lead us to move from one level to another," says the first minister. "It is a basket of measures we also have to apply judgement to."

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Willie Rennie argues the Scottish government has not used the summer well to get on top of what was required.

The Scottish Lib Dems leader points to issues with quarantine spot-checks and testing capacity, as well as the tracing system.

Over 500 people who tested positive were not contacted for two days, he tells BBC Scotland.

He pledges to work with the first minister going forward and says he wants to buy into the new strategy.

Mr Rennie calls for the financial package to match the restrictions, more asymptomatic testing and increased tracing capacity.

People need to see the science so we know the measures coming forward will work, adds the Scottish Lib Dem leader, who says there must also be transparent thresholds so people know when the restrictions may be lifted.

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Willie Rennie tells BBC Scotland: "I am very anxious about the ways things are developing."

The Scottish Lib Dems leader adds hospital wards are filling up, there's an increased number of cases, the death rate is rising, but also the R number is not below one.

"The government does really need to get on top of this situation if we are going to curb the rise of this virus," he says.

Mr Rennie says there have been four strategies in three weeks, with the extension of the short-term restrictions and the new strategy revealed this Friday.

He adds: "It doesn't look like we are in control of the situation."

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Louise Scott from STV asks whether it would be better to keep other hospitality venues open, given issues of over-crowding and queuing at some cafes.

Nicola Sturgeon says "you can argue these things both ways" but we shouldn't forget the objective is to try to stop people interacting.

Cafes have been kept open to help people living alone who may have no-one else to talk to and to give them somewhere to meet a friend.

It is "not an open invitation to people who might otherwise go out normally to crowd into cafes", says the first minister.

Ms Sturgeon appeals to "human common sense" and says the alternative would be just to close all hospitality venues, including cafes.

The flexibility built into decisions only works if all of us try to operate in the spirit of the restrictions and remember the objective, rather than trying to get round them, she adds.

Otherwise the "inevitable conclusion" is they have to be stricter.

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The BBC's Lynsey Bews also asks what has changed as the short-term restrictions were due to be lifted on 26 October.

The first minister reiterates the clear clinical advice is that it would be premature to lift the restrictions on Monday.

There is also the transition to the new levels system and some time is being taken to consult on the general levels framework which must be voted on by MSPs, she explains.

The first minister highlights briefings of opposition party leaders yesterday and an offer for further consultation with them later this week.

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Lynsey Bews from BBC Scotland asks about reports the Scottish government is outsourcing some of its contact tracing to private firms.

The first minister replies: "Test and Protect in Scotland is an NHS service. We have not and we will not outsource any part of our contact tracing system."

Ms Sturgeon says National Services Scotland has recruited a small number of staff from private companies as the system migrates to a permanent workforce.

She points out they work under the NHS system and are trained by Test and Protect and are part of the NHS integrated system.

The first minster says the government were contacted by Barrhead Travel offering staff who might otherwise have faced redundancy, so a number of them have been recruited to the NHS system.

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Professor Leitch says there also grounds for "cautious optimism" despite the grim statistics.

Two weeks ago, senior advisers published a paper with evidence of infections doubling every nine days.

On 7 October, there were 1054 positive cases. If they were doubling every nine days it would have meant by 16 October there would have been 2,500 cases, Prof Leitch says, but there were not.

This suggests the restrictions around household visits and on hospitality "are working but they are working slowly," he says, which is why the government is reluctant to move away from them.

Because of lags in recording cases, people behaviours today cannot save a life on the same day, "but it saves lives in three to four weeks from now," adds Prof Leitch.

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Scotland's National Clinical Director, Professor Jason Leitch, outlines some figures to demonstrate the extent of the global pandemic which he says the world has "not seen on this scale since 1918".

• This week the world reached 40 million Covid infections and passed 1.12million deaths
• 5,500 people died yesterday
• Europe has now passed five million cases
• Spain has had 14,000 cases in the last 24 hours and 218 deaths
• France has had 20,500 cases and 262 deaths in the past 24 hours

He reminds us of today's figures in Scotland, as the first minister outlined earlier, with "most concerning and depressing of all, 28 deaths".

"These numbers are a stark warning as to what this virus can do, and continues to do, to Scotland," he says.

The first minister reminds everyone they should not be visiting each other's homes and of other general rules and guidelines, including of course the FACTS:

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The first minister says the planned levels of support for business in the future will be outlined within the new strategic framework later this week.

Ms Sturgeon says the level of support in the framework will be the maximum the Scottish government can provide within its resources, which is the minimum necessary.

She pledges to continue to pursue urgent discussions with the Treasury about the provision of adequate support and funding.

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The first minister says none of today's decisions have been taken lightly and are all about saving lives.

Ms Sturgeon stresses the Scottish government does believe the restrictions will make a difference and may already be doing so.

She adds that, even allowing for today's figures, the government thinks we are starting to see a reduction in the rate of new cases increasing.

The first minister announces the financial support available for businesses impacted by the restrictions will be extended to cover the additional week.

She says information on this will be published online, with extensions to the business support grants and also the support for the job furlough scheme.

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The first minister says, although there are grounds for cautious optimism and the short-term restrictions are having an effect, the clinical advice is it is not safe to lift them as early as Monday.

Ms Sturgeon adds the extension allows a more smooth transition to the level system on 2 November.

The current short-term restrictions will now apply until 6am on Monday 2 November, including the tighter restrictions in place across the central belt.

The first minister reminds everyone about the rules and the short-term regulations.

1. Scottish government: Coronavirus (COVID-19): what you can and cannot do

2. Scottish government's current short-term restrictions

The challenge Scotland faces has also been set out in an evidence paper published by senior clinical advisors.

These short-term restrictions are now extended until 2 November

3. Download the Protect Scotland app from NHS Scotland

4.Test and Protect

If you have Covid-19 symptoms go immediately to NHS Inform online or phone 0800 028 2816 to book a test

5. NHS Inform

The latest from NHS Scotland and the Scottish government, including social distancing, face covering and stay at home advice.

6. Clear Your Head

It's ok to not feel yourself right now, here's some tips to help people through the pandemic

7. BBC Scotland articles:

• What are Scotland's new lockdown rules?

• Covid-19 in Scotland: Where are the latest cases?

• Check the Covid rules where you live

The detail of what level will be applied where in the country is being assessed in the coming days, continues the first minister.

Ms Sturgeon says this will be set out in advance of 2 November.

She adds: "We can't rule out that this new approach will entail further extension of existing restrictions, or perhaps even tougher restrictions for all or parts of the country."

The first minister says that will depend on up-to-date assessments of the restrictions and all of the decisions will be balanced by the wider harms that Covid and the restrictions are having.