As it happened: UK 'on course' to vaccinate over-50s by 15 April

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We'll soon be bringing our live page to a pause for the day, but before we do here is a round-up of the main stories from today:

• The NHS has warned of a "significant reduction in the weekly supply" of coronavirus vaccines next month in a letter to local health organisations. The letter says there has been a "reduction in national inbound vaccines supply" and asks organisations to "ensure no further appointments are uploaded" to booking systems in April. During today's coronavirus briefing, Health Secretary Matt Hancock insisted the UK was still "ahead of schedule" to offer a first dose to all over-50s by 15 April
• The head of the European Commission has said that if Covid vaccine supplies in Europe do not improve, the EU "will reflect whether exports to countries who have higher vaccination rates than us are still proportionate". Ursula von der Leyen says the EU is still waiting for exports from the UK

• Prime Minister Boris Johnson has revealed he is to receive his first vaccine dose "very shortly" - and it will "certainly" be the Oxford-AstraZeneca jab. It comes after several European countries were criticised for pausing their rollout of the jab over fears around blood clots. Medicines regulators for the UK and EU have said evidence does not suggest the jab is linked to clots

• The prime minister's former aide, Dominic Cummings, has criticised the Department of Health as "a smoking ruin in terms of procurement and PPE" at the start of the pandemic. He said that was why the prime minister had taken direct control of the vaccine programme
• A digital certificate to kick-start foreign travel should be given to citizens across the EU "without discrimination", officials say. The aim is to enable anyone vaccinated against Covid-19, or who has tested negative or recently recovered from the virus, to travel within the EU
• Brazil is experiencing an historic collapse of its health service as intensive care units in hospitals run out of capacity, its leading health institute, Fiocruz, has warned. Covid-19 units in all but two of Brazil's 27 states are at or above 80% capacity, according to Fiocruz
• Former US President Donald Trump has urged his Republican supporters to be vaccinated against Covid-19, saying he would recommend it. In a TV interview, he said the vaccine was "safe" and "something that works".

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Northern Ireland's four main churches have said they will return to public worship in time for Easter.

The Church of Ireland, Methodist and Presbyterian Churches in Northern Ireland will resume in-person services from Good Friday, 2 April.

The Catholic Church has confirmed there will be a "cautious" return a week earlier, from 26 March.

The four churches voluntarily suspended in-person gatherings in January of this year because of the coronavirus lockdown.

General Secretary of the Methodist Church in Ireland the Reverend Dr Heather Morris said churches could make a "careful" return to services, adding "this will allow time for preparation to celebrate the major Christian festival of Easter".

Presbyterian churches may also resume services on that date, but it will be up to individual congregations when they return, and will require "all the mitigations in place to ensure the safety of people," the church said.

In a statement, the bishops of the Church of Ireland in Northern Ireland said the time had come for a "cautious and careful" reopening.

An autistic artist says painting has helped him cope with the stresses of the coronavirus pandemic.

David Downes started out creating pictures of giant cells looming in the sky, but different themes emerged in his work as the past year ran its course.

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More than 3.7 million vulnerable people in England will no longer have to shield from the coronavirus from 1 April.

It comes as the numbers of Covid-19 cases and hospital admissions have declined for the past couple of weeks. Letters will be sent out to those in the clinically extremely vulnerable to confirm the move.

In them, people will still be advised to keep social contacts at low levels, work from home where possible and stay at a distance from other people.

Since 5 January, they have been asked to stay at home as much as possible to reduce their risk of being exposed to the virus.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock earlier confirmed the shielding guidance, which had been extended to 31 March, would indeed end then.

England's deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries recommended the change based on the latest scientific evidence and advice.

Read more here.

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The lead investigator for the AstraZeneca vaccine trials in South Africa has said it was “extremely devastating” and “mind-boggling” that his country put the rollout of the vaccine on hold, even though his own research led to the government making the decision.

Prof Shabir Madhi’s study into whether the vaccine worked against the South African variant found it offered “minimal protection” against mild forms of the disease.

But he says the study was “misinterpreted” by officials and the vaccine could still be useful to protect against more severe forms of the disease in vulnerable people.

He’s also warning European governments against an “over-reaction” over blood clot reports.

Several European countries have paused the rollout of the vaccine, despite the the European Medicines Agency saying there is "no indication" the jab causes blood clots.

Prof Madhi said: “When countries start interrupting their vaccination programmes that itself might lend an opportunity for the virus to start mutating and become resistant to the immune responses which have been induced by the vaccine.”

He says governments need to be careful about making decisions that are hard to reverse because they can “diminish public confidence in the rollout of all vaccines".

South Africa is currently thinking about selling its 1.5 million doses of the AZ vaccine to the African Union.

They expire in April.

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Twelve brutal months have supplied one lesson above all: economics cannot be disentangled from health.

There never was a simple binary trade-off between the two factors. Those countries with the biggest first wave of excess deaths also had the biggest hits to the economy. The UK was the hardest hit of similar countries on both measures within the G7 group of industrialised countries.

That economic picture remains, even after stripping out different methods of measuring the public sector, according to the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) assessment at this month's Budget.

The shape of the recession we saw from the pandemic and lockdowns was extraordinary, historic, but also unique - a very sharp fall with a rapid rebound.

Over 2020 the overall numbers saw the largest hit in three centuries. Larger than any single year of the Great Wars or the 1920s Depression.

The UK economy, like those of Italy and Spain, is particularly exposed to industries where there is social contact, such as restaurants and tourism, that were shut down in the pandemic.

But beyond that, as the OBR concluded this month, the primary reason the UK has suffered a greater economic hit is simply that the UK experienced higher rates of infections, hospitalisation and deaths from the virus than other countries, and spent longer in stricter lockdowns.

Read more from Faisal here.

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We now have some more detail on the news the NHS has written to local health organisations warning of a "significant reduction in weekly supply" of coronavirus vaccines for a month from the week beginning 29 March.

The BBC's politics editor Laura Kuenssberg has been told the problem has been caused by there being fewer AstraZeneca vaccines available than expected.

The BBC understands no one who has booked a vaccination should lose a slot.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock was asked about the letter during the Downing Street coronavirus briefing.

He said "vaccine supply is always lumpy", and added the NHS regularly sends out "technical letters" explaining the "ups and downs" of supply.

Read more

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A barrister says the reaction his cat received after gatecrashing a virtual hearing at the Old Bailey "showed the British justice system at its best".

Naz Hussain QC said he had settled in his kitchen for January's hearing - which was taking place virtually because of the pandemic - when eight-month-old Columbo made his impromptu appearance.

He said the cat, named after the TV detective, had initially targeted his headphone cable, resisting efforts to usher him away before he walked on to the keyboard and into the frame.

"The judge jokingly asked if he was my instructing solicitor, to which I said: 'No, it's my replacement junior.'

"Everyone laughed and, sensing stardom, Columbo just kept coming back."

Hussain, from Sheffield, said: "It started to go viral and my junior said 'your cat is on the news'. I couldn't believe it, here was a Radio 4 news report about my cat."

"I'm happy this small unexpected act made so many people laugh. The aftermath was surreal."

His appearance sparked a wave of press coverage, leading Mr Hussain to create a Twitter account - AdvoCat_QC - chronicling his exploits.

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Disney has announced plans to reopen its two theme parks in California next month, after more than a year.

New rules will be in place, with the number of visitors limited and everyone over the age of two having to wear a mask. There will be temperature screenings at some locations.

An industry trade group has also advised against actions that could cause a potential risk - including screaming on rides.

Disney has already opened properties in other locations, such as Florida and Beijing, at reduced capacity. Its parks in Paris and Hong Kong Kong have reopened, only to be shut again.

But in California, its parks remained shut - in part due to disagreements with unions over safety measures for staff, a dispute the two sides resolved last autumn.

Disney says the reopening in California will mean the return of roughly 10,000 jobs.

"While it may be a bit different from the last time you visited, together we can find new ways to create magical moments together—and memories to treasure forever," the company is telling potential visitors on its website.

Before March 2020, Shireen says she didn't "really care" about her dad as they'd grown apart.

But during lockdown she realised she was living in the same house as her best friend.

As part of the BBC Young Reporter competition Shireen's told her story to encourage others to reconnect with their families.

You can find BBC online resources relating to media literacy and the skills involved in broadcasting here.

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Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga has suggested he plans to let state of emergency curbs expire on schedule on Sunday, less than five months before the postponed Tokyo Olympics are due to begin.

"The figures have moved in the direction of lifting (the emergency measures)," he said, according to the Reuters news agency.

"I will make a final decision towards ending the curbs after listening to the views of experts," he added.

The government declared the state of emergency around the turn of the year amid a surge in cases.

The nationwide Olympic torch relay kicks off in northeastern Fukushima on 25 March, while the games are due to begin on 23 July.

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It is unclear what has caused this drop in vaccine supply from 29 March.

Government sources are suggesting the amount produced by manufacturers is below the expected yields.

Vaccine production is a biological process so you cannot guarantee just how much is grown.

But given we do rely on supply from Europe for Pfizer and, certainly in the past, some AstraZeneca doses, the fact it comes on the day the EU has warned it may restrict exports has raised questions about whether this might be part of the cause.

The number of doses available may drop below two million a week in April - that is a little below what has been available in the past couple of weeks. Because significant numbers of second doses will need to be given from the start of next month, this has prompted the NHS to tell vaccination clinics not to think about inviting the under-50s for a jab.

The focus instead will be on ensuring maximum uptake in the over-50s. The government is still adamant the target to offer all adults a vaccine by the end of July will be met.

But given the vaccination rollout has been ahead of schedule there had been growing hopes it would have been achieved earlier than that.

We have always been warned the supply chain in precarious. This latest news is a reminder of just how true that is.

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Today's Downing Street press conference, fronted by Health Secretary Matt Hancock, has come to an end.

Here's a recap of what was covered:

• There is a focus on vaccinating the most vulnerable in the UK before the over-40s receive their jabs, and the UK is on track to offer a first dose to those in the top nine priority groups by 15 April, said Mr Hancock
• The UK will do "everything necessary" to ensure supplies continue
• It comes after the NHS warned in a letter to local health leaders that there will be a "significant reduction" in weekly vaccine supply from the end of March
• Mr Hancock said this was a "standard" letter and that "vaccine supply is always lumpy" with ups and downs of supply
• Vaccines remain "on track", he said, adding he has "increased confidence" the nation will be able to "walk down that rope set out in the road map"
• About nine in 10 people aged about 70 now have coronavirus antibodies thanks to the vaccination programme
• People aged over 70 who been vaccinated with both Covid-19 jabs are 60% less likely to catch coronavirus, Public Health England's (PHE) head of immunisation Dr Mary Ramsay said
• Prof Jonathan Van-Tam said there was no evidence of increased risk of blood clots with the AstraZeneca jab
• He urged people to take up their vaccine offer, saying "vaccines don't save lives if they're in fridges... they only save lives if they're in arms"
• Shielding will end as planned on 31 March, Mr Hancock said.

The final question comes from Emily Ashton from Bloomberg.

She asks if the dates for easing lockdown are absolutely set in stone, or if they can be brought sooner if the vaccine roll-out continues to be ahead of schedule. She asks what he wants to say to people who are going out and playing sport after their vaccines.

Hancock says playing football in the park with your family "is absolutely fine" and most people are being "unbelievably supportive of the rules and doing their bit".

Professor Jonathan Van-Tam adds that "it takes quite a while for antibodies to become measurable in the blood stream after vaccination". He says that looking at data, vaccine effectiveness continues to improve after 21 days but protection is not immediate after a vaccine dose.

He asks for people to "hold the line" so the UK only has to have one successful rollout of vaccines, rather than further lockdowns.

Dr Mary Ramsay says people must continue to follow the rules and keep their distance.

Mr Hancock finishes by saying the government is following the dates in the UK's roadmap out of lockdown.

Matt Hancock is now asked why calls for a public inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic haven't been answered.

He says “we’re learning lessons all the time”, such as from the vaccination rollout.

“We constantly look at the actions we take” and look at how the response “can be as good as possible”, Hancock adds.

Jonathan Van-Tam says the timing of a public inquiry is a political matter – not one for physicians.

He says he is “very focused” on the vaccination programme and an inquiry would be an “extra burden” that wasn’t necessary.

However, he says looking back on lessons learnt is an important process for the NHS and he is “sure lessons will emerge”.

Matt Hancock has attempted to play down the news of a "significant reduction in weekly supply" which the NHS has announced to local health teams.

He referred to interruptions in supply from the start of the pandemic and glossed over the news that no new appointments will be offered in April.

The government's focus is, suddenly, on making sure those in the most vulnerable categories get both jabs as soon as possible.

But it will be hard for ministers to continue to dismiss the interruption as part of expected "ups and downs" if it calls their ambitious target to vaccinate all adults by the end of July into doubt.

The Daily Mail's political editor Jason Groves says Hancock "skated over" the issue of vaccine supply as if it were a "technical issue".

The health secretary is asked to tell the under-50s when they will get the jab.

Hancock reiterates that supply is "always lumpy" and the UK remains on course to deliver the offer that everyone who is 50 and above will be able to get the jab by 15 April.

He says supply schedules have "moved up and down" throughout the rollout.

"It's absolutely par for the course," he says.

He adds the letter is a "normal operational letter".

Romilly Weeks from ITV says Dominic Cummings has blamed the Department for Health for poor PPE performance, while also saying the department had nothing to do with the success of the vaccine rollout. She asks if this is how he sees it.

Matt Hancock says the vaccine rollout has been "a huge team effort" and the NHS has "led the way" in terms of delivery.

"The spirit is a positive, mission-driven can-do spirit" of those who are working to get vaccines to people, he adds.

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The next question is about when families who live in different UK nations will be able to be reunited.

Matt Hancock says he "very much looks forward" to all travel restrictions in the UK being removed, saying in England the "stay at home" message will be lifted at the end of March.

“I have no doubt within a short few weeks everybody will be free to travel around the UK, as long as we’re able to keep this progress going.”