Reaction to 'not now' vote

BBCCopyright: BBC

The UK government is to reject calls for a Scottish independence referendum before Brexit after Theresa May said "now is not the time".

The prime minister said the focus should be on getting the best Brexit deal for the whole of the UK.

But Scotland's first minister said she remained "determined" to have an independence referendum on her timescale.

Nicola Sturgeon told BBC Scotland it would be "anti-democratic" for the UK government to block a referendum.

• Referendum demand 'will be rejected'
• Scottish independence: Sturgeon 'determined' to have second vote - BBC News
• Indyref2: Your questions answered

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says blocking a second Scottish independence referendum would be "outrageous" and "anti-democratic".

It comes after Prime Minister Theresa May said that "now was not the time" to allow a vote to take place.

And Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson said a referendum should not be held without knowing the shape of any post-Brexit relationship with Europe.

Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale has told the BBC that it is wrong to assume that an independence referendum will take place.

"You have to understand that the majority of people here in Scotland don’t want independence - they told us that just two-and-a-half years ago - and they don’t want another independence referendum. That’s evidenced in all the recent opinion polls," she said.

"Our country is divided enough. We do not want to be dragged back to the arguments of the past and that’s why the Scottish Labour party will very firmly oppose a second independence referendum here in the parliament next week.

BBCCopyright: BBC

"Nicola Sturgeon regularly points to her manifesto and repeats a line about a material change in circumstances.

"What she rarely does is read the line in the manifesto that precedes that, which says there would have to be evidence of the majority of people in Scotland wanting to revisit that independence question before she would call that second independence referendum.”

To govern is to choose. The prime minister has now chosen to exercise her power over the constitution, reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998.

This is about competing power, competing mandates, competing interpretations of the verdicts delivered during the European referendum last year.

Theresa May accords primacy to the Brexit negotiations. She says she does  not want even to contemplate the prospect  of indyref2 during that period.

That means she will not countenance a transfer of powers under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, again at this stage.

Read the rest of Brian Taylor's blog .

What we have seen is a very high stakes episode of political brinkmanship between those in 10 Downing Street and those in Bute House. 

Theresa May chose her words extremely carefully today and the timing of the intervention is most definitely not accidental. It was very carefully stage-managed from Number 10's point of view. 

What it was, was a very carefully calibrated rebuff to Nicola Sturgeon but not the Scottish people. And the impression I get is that, reading between the lines, Number 10 is saying "No we are not ruling out a referendum forever and a day, but what we are ruling out is a referendum on Nicola Sturgeon's timetable".

The logic from Theresa May is that she has got to embark on Brexit negotiations, those could be very lengthy, very complicated and it is only fair for the people of Scotland that they know what the Brexit deal is going to be before they are asked to take a decision about the future of the union and their country. 

Scottish Conservatives MSP Murdo Fraser has said Theresa May has listened to the opinion "of the majority of people in Scotland".

Speaking on BBC Radio Scotland's Newsdrive programme, Mr Fraser said: "It has been very clear for some time that even a large percentage of those who believe Scotland should be an independent country at some future point don't want to see an independence referendum in the near future."

He added: "What she's [Theresa May] trying to do is create a stable settlement in the UK and some stability at a time that the UK government is involved in what will inevitably be a very difficult negotiation for Brexit which is a major challenge for this country.

"And having an independence referendum while that's going on is going to add an extra layer of uncertainty and disruption."

ReutersCopyright: Reuters

The 2014 referendum was held by mutual consent between the UK and Scottish governments, but the legal power to hold a referendum lies with Westminster.

In 2012, through the Edinburgh agreement and a piece of legislation called a section 30 order, the UK government temporarily gave the power to hold a referendum to the Scottish parliament. It meant Holyrood was able to decide;

• the date of the referendum
• the franchise
• the wording of the question
• rules on campaign financing
• other rules for the conduct of the referendum

Only three limits were placed on the Scottish Parliament by the UK government:

• the date of the referendum couldn’t take place on another election date
• it had to be held no later than 31 December 2014
• the referendum question could only offer two options for voters to choose between

Next week the Scottish Parliament is likely to vote, once again, for the government to give them the power to hold the independence referendum under a Section 30 order.

If Theresa May refuses to do that, any referendum would not have legal or statutory backing under UK Law.

Potentially, this has significant constitutional implications.Despite the rhetoric, in practice since devolution, the Scottish and UK governments have worked generally on the basis of consent. 

A significant constitutional breakdown between the two governments hasn’t yet been road tested in the era of devolution.

Duncan Hothershall, a blogger and No campaigner, told BBC Radio Scotland's Newsdrive programme: "For me, and I think a lot of people, it's a pox on both their houses. Both of these leaders are basically whipping up different types of nationalism against each other. 

"What struck me about Theresa May today was she set out an argument against a country leaving a union that has been successful and upon which it relies for trade and it struck me that what she was arguing against was her own criminal Brexit plans.

"But the argument is right about both Brexit and independence. What worries me is that people are painting independence as a way out of Brexit. For me it just doubles down on all of the disaster that Brexit is about to bring. 

"Independence would just double it. We would be leaving another market, we would be going into another period of upheaval. I just think this is nationalism gone mad."

Michael Gray, who campaigned for a Yes vote in 2014, told BBC Radio Scotland's Newsdrive programme: "A lot has changed in Scotland since 2014. 

"People in Scotland didn't vote for the current Tory government, they didn't vote for Brexit, and no-one in the United Kingdom voted to exit the single market yet all these things are being imposed on Scotland, with a threat to our economy and our society.

"I think the majority in the Scottish Parliament support a fresh referendum after the terms of Brexit are clear and I think it is the right of the people in Scotland to decide, given these changing circumstances, what they make of both a fresh proposition for independence and the real threats that come from Brexit as well."

Today Theresa May pulled the rug out from underneath Nicola Sturgeon, after Nicola Sturgeon pulled the rug out from underneath her feet on Monday in her Bute House statement. 

The prime minister's interview in Downing Street was done at about 12:00. It was a pooled interview - that's why Robert Peston the political editor of ITV news was doing it - and it was played out to everyone at 12:45.

And what was happening at 12:45 in Scotland? Well, that was the moment the first minister had sat down immediately after First Minister's Questions.

So another extraordinary development in quite an extraordinary week which leaves us really at a political impasse with Theresa May now raising the stakes.