Champions Cup: Leinster face challenge from Racing & Saracens for 2019 title

Last updated on 13 October 2018.From the section Rugby Union259

Leinster celebrate Champions Cup victory — Leinster's 2018 triumph followed successes in 2009, 2011 and 2012

After finishing bottom of their pool two seasons previously, Leinster completed a remarkable turnaround by lifting the Champions Cup for a record-equalling fourth time in Bilbao in May.

Their defence started impressively on Friday with an eight-try 52-3 demolition of Wasps in this season's tournament opener.

English champions Saracens, who won the Champions Cup in 2016 and 2017, clearly have the pedigree to challenge for European rugby's biggest prize again.

Racing 92, defeated finalists last year, now have British and Irish Lions Finn Russell and Simon Zebo among their ranks.

And Exeter and big-spending Montpellier also have big aspirations.

But do any of them have what it takes to wrest the title away from the Pro14 champions?

Jamie Heaslip, who called time on a hugely successful career as Leinster and Ireland number eight in February, joined former Lions, England and Harlequins wing Ugo Monye and BBC rugby union reporter Chris Jones to run the rule over the champions, challengers and ones to watch in this season's competition.

Listen: 5 live Rugby Weekly's European prediction podcast with Jamie Heaslip

Who is going to win?

Jamie: Leinster - The way senior coach Stuart Lancaster has the team playing is a way ahead of some of their rivals. They go up against some teams that are a lot bigger than them physically but move the ball so quickly from the point of contact that the big teams are not able to set their defensive line.

They play and train at such a fast pace, I don't know if anyone else is doing that. It will be tough but the guys are quite used to that and they will relish it. They will not get cocky or arrogant, they are a really good group with an even better culture.

Ugo: Leinster - They will win their pool and, with a home quarter-final, they are only a couple of games away from being back in the final.

It is a slightly different experience this year with everyone chasing them, but they have too much experience and strength in depth, especially with so many of their players peaking to fight for a place in the Ireland World Cup squad.

Chris: Exeter - Rob Baxter's men have a tricky pool, but I think they will win it and march on from there. Do they have the firepower and class to conquer Europe for the first time?

Who else are contenders for the title?

Finn Russell — A reported wage of £700,000-a-year was part of the package to lure Russell to Racing from Glasgow

Jamie: I am scared of Racing 92. The additions they have made in the summer are strong and they also have Jordan Joseph, who is just 18 and was a monster number eight in France's World Under-20 Championship win. What they are developing there is exciting.

Ugo: The big question around Saracens is are they able to juggle the Premiership and Champions Cup? After doing the double in 2016, something has given on either the continental or domestic front in each of their last two campaigns.

They have an incredible squad, though, and they've made history at the start of the season, becoming the first team to start a Premiership campaign with five straight bonus-point wins.

Racing 92 have started the season well, chalking up some big wins against Castres, Stade Francais and Toulon in the Top 14, and have added to an already decent squad. Simon Zebo is enjoying life in Paris and has scored six tries already.

And Montpellier, with the backing of their owner Mohed Altrad, will be zeroing in on the one trophy they really want. They have always got a chance with Fijian Nemani Nadolo on the wing. They have consistently threatened and, after disappointing pool-stage exits in each of the last two seasons, you feel they might have extra focus this season.

Nemani Nadolo — Nadolo finished top of the statistics for metres made (553), defenders beaten (38) and clean breaks (16) in last year's competition. He and Ospreys' Dan Evans topped the try-scoring charts with six each

Chris: Given the depth of their squad and their winning experience, Leinster should be clear favourites to repeat last year's success. Same can be said of Saracens. Both have a high-class playing and coaching staff and will surely progress into the latter stages.

Last year's beaten finalists Racing 92 will head the French challenge, with previous giants such as Toulon struggling and Clermont not even qualified. Elsewhere, Vern Cotter's Montpellier have the tools to go all the way.

Ugo's prediction

Chris' prediction

Five players to watch

James Lowe (Leinster)

Jamie: Lowe had a long season after making the switch from the southern hemisphere, but he is coming in fresh and firing this campaign. He will thrive in the free-flowing environment that coach Lancaster is encouraging. He is a big man who can finish. Give him a metre of space and he is going to run straight over you, but he also has the skill to go round you or get the offload away instead.

Leone Nakarawa (Racing 92)

Ugo: Nakarawa was named third in a rundown of the world's 100 best players by Rugby World magazine in February and it was fully deserved. The Fiji lock does things that no other second row on earth can do, improvising basketball-style offloads out of the tackle to keep the defence guessing. He clocked up 22 offloads in last season's competition, nearly double what anyone else managed. He is an all-round athlete as well, as proved by his gold medal in the Olympic sevens in Rio.

Dan Leavy (Leinster)

Chris: Leinster's relentless accuracy in contact and at the breakdown was central to their success domestically and in Europe last season, with the likes of Leavy and James Ryan leading the way despite their inexperience. Even though they have numerous options in the back row, Leavy will play a huge part in the defence of Leinster's title.

Romain Ntamack (Toulouse)

Chris: The 19-year-old Toulouse fly-half is the son of former France star Emile and is part of a crop of insanely talented French youngsters who powered past England on the way to winning the World Under-20 Championship in the summer.

Hadleigh Parkes (Scarlets)

Chris: Fresh from a breakthrough year, uber-reliable centre Parkes is critical to the Scarlets' chances of repeating last season's success, when they reached the semi-finals.

New season, new fans?

New Zealand v Tonga at Rugby World Cup — Eventual champions New Zealand played Tonga at St James' Park in the 2015 World Cup

Ugo: The decision to take the final to St James' Park is brilliant. It was an experiment to go to Bilbao for last year's and that worked really well.

St James' Park hosted three games during the Rugby World Cup with more than 50,000 at each, the Falcons played Northampton there in March in front of more than 30,000 and England are heading up there to play Italy in September 2019 as well.

It is an iconic stadium in England and the ticket sales speak volumes, with more than 30,000 already sold. It is great to see rugby broadening its horizons and going to new territories.

Chris: Channel 4's move into the rugby market means a handful of Champions Cup matches will be broadcast on free-to-air TV this season. This is highly significant given how long the European Cup has been subscription only. The aim is to force the club game - so often in international rugby's shadow - into the sporting mainstream.

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259 comments

Comment posted by kraken, at 08:59 11 Oct 2018
As a Welshman, I am sorry to say that non of our teams will be in contention. Having watched Saracens on BT sport, find them very effective at winning games. It may just boil down to which team can keep their players injury free, Autumn International, league games, Six Nations, The Cup itself. The players will be burnt out by the end of the season, then the World cup, too much rugby
Comment posted by tightheadprop, at 09:01 11 Oct 2018
After English clubs did so poorly last year in this competition it is going to take some effort to get further this year. They have a a worse schedule than pro14 clubs but better than the French clubs. The best two games last year were Exe v Gla and then the reverse fixture. Glasgow running tires in from their own try line and Exeter with their mauling power play was great to watch.
Comment posted by LD Rob, at 11:10 11 Oct 2018
Stupid making predictions this early. All Rugby competitions depend on how each club deal with the inevitable injuries and international absences. Both Leinster and Sarries would be in serious trouble if England or Ireland have a serious injury crisis.

Dark horses:
Scarlets
Glasgow
Comment posted by manofkent, at 22:16 11 Oct 2018
Hard to see past another Leinster win. No complaints, but some jealousy I'll admit of the Irish system. They bring through lots of home grown talent and credit to IRFU and the model they have. England have let the money men take control of rugby and can't see that getting reversed. Good to see France reaping the benefits of picking only French players for national team though.
Comment posted by User0886662822, at 12:03 11 Oct 2018
@9

The Scottish and Irish back rows ran rings around England and were the main reason England lost. It’s a fault in selection, not of the player.

Citing Saracens back row selection to support your argument does not hold up. What works in the increasingly collision based Premiership does not work at International level where players are running into spaces, not other players.
Comment posted by D1710786368930, at 10:26 11 Oct 2018
I fancy Glasgow to have a decent run this year. The worry was over the loss of Finn Russell but Adam Hastings has been in outstanding form this season, and they are scoring tries for fun. Still worried over their forwards but they have stood up well this season so far, and the addition this week to the pack will bolster. Glasgow for QF.
Comment posted by OriginalTEQUILASURFER, at 13:58 11 Oct 2018
Cannae see past Leinster, however I think Sarries & Exeter will be there or thereabouts, wouldn't be shocked if either lift the trophy. Quite surprised no-one has mentioned the Scarlets, the only unfortunate thing is they will likely meet Leinster in the last 8 however if Halfpenny, Patchell, Foxy Davies and Parkes are fully fit that's enough to put any side to the sword given the opportunity
Comment posted by User0060062053, at 21:41 12 Oct 2018
Wasps just got hosed by the Pro14 big guns, going to be a long campaign for the Coventry lads! Still fail to see the outdated attraction with relegation when it’s possible to have a franchise that protects players and helps the national team. It works in France because they have a good quality and viable 2nd flight, but not in England where all the money is at the top and the Union don’t engage.
Comment posted by mundo, at 07:21 12 Oct 2018
@114 hmmm prem better than pro14? Last years semis young man. 3 pro14 , 1 French . Smell the coffee
Comment posted by Woodworker, at 09:33 11 Oct 2018
@9. Sarries played a big slow back row against a big slow Exeter back row in prem final, it proves nothing. Neither could succeed against a Leinster back row in the same way England can’t cope with Ireland back row. Lawes is good at lock, like Itoje and they can cover 6 in Prem because they’re athletes but I wouldn’t start them there by choice at International level. Breakdown is key at top level.
Comment posted by Ivor Rorke, at 18:10 11 Oct 2018
Can't see past Leinster. Effectively an Irish national side playing as a club. The players are managed effectively and coached by an unfaily maligned coach who has raised his standards. The Irish national and provincial game seem to be the template for success.
Comment posted by footyfan94, at 13:57 11 Oct 2018
8. It's more to do with how the respective unions behave than the schedules as Pro14 teams play more games than prem teams.

The SRU ban their clubs from playing any Scottish player more than 4 games in a row and the Irish + Welsh unions have regulations of how many games their top players can play. Whereas the RFU just let these greedy Prem teams rule the roost making their players exhausted.
Comment posted by Casper, at 08:48 11 Oct 2018
England have a few quick speedy backrowers but if we continue to select Lawes there then my interest with the England team is done.

Staying on topic I fancy an outsider to win this year. Maybe Chiefs

Glad to see SL re-gain respect within the rugby world as he was made a scapegoat for the RFU pressuring him to select Rugby League flops.
Comment posted by User0302385138, at 10:47 12 Oct 2018
142 Munster

I don't think there's any issue with the quality of rugby. Personally (and I didn't "up vote") I think the Pro14 lacks jeopardy...everyone wins in the end because it's a closed shop with the punters paying up win lose or draw.

I think that promotion/relegation is a necessary part of sport. After all, using the Pro14 model, Exeter would have stayed in the Championship for ever!
Comment posted by Woodworker, at 09:20 11 Oct 2018
@1 Agreed. With Sam Simmonds side-lined, can’t see Exeter dealing with Leinster any better than last season. As good as Don Armand is, he isn’t a natural 7 at European level. Exeter’s heavy dominant set piece pack works in the Prem but they need a different breakdown strategy to succeed in Europe. Interesting to see if they can adapt where they failed last year. An opportunity for Kvesic to shine?
Comment posted by D1679649878258, at 10:39 11 Oct 2018
I'm a Chiefs fan, but you just can't look past Leinster in my opinion, class everywhere and real strength in depth. You only need to look at player management over the Irish Sea to see how much this tournament means to them. Cannot wait for the away match at Thomond in January...could be the decider in our pool, so I'm hoping the Munster Magic goes missing for a night!
Comment posted by WarriorFaction, at 14:00 11 Oct 2018
68. A bit of a difficult statement to justify surely, given the Pro14 success in Europe, and the international successes too. There's arguments as to why that is, but noddy league is a bit arrogant and rude.
Comment posted by Cardiffian, at 21:44 12 Oct 2018
Humiliated... How can a supposed top English side, ship 52 points and not even fire a single shot!! Extraordinary... Hardly a phase put together... Humiliating and embarrassing..
Comment posted by Big Mick, at 10:25 11 Oct 2018
I doubt they will get out of the group but it's great to see Newcastle Falcons on the big stage.
Comment posted by givetherefabreak, at 19:50 11 Oct 2018
@109
Every league team in every league can rest players, the fact that in The Top 14 and The Pro 14 they do is just good practice the fact that they don't in the GP is silly & short sighted.
It is called player management for a reason, you don't need to win every match by a cricket score like Sarries & Exeter regularly do especially against teams that are no where near their class.