Monthly Outlook

Generally it's going to stay rather changeable across the UK but temperatures should remain above average. Drier and calmer interludes are likely in parts at times.

By the middle of the week high pressure will remain over Scandinavia and extend into the eastern North Atlantic, with a deepening low over the North Sea slowly moving across parts of the UK. The latter may lead to heavy and persistent rainfall across much of England and Wales and parts of Scotland, accompanied by brisk winds, while it will be more showery over Northern Ireland. Temperatures will fall to around seasonal average across the UK.

Over the weekend high pressure will persist over much of Scandinavia and extend to the Greenland Sea, with an area of low pressure forming on its flanks. The low-pressure systems and its fronts may move north-eastwards across the UK, with a more south-westerly flow developing on Saturday and Sunday. This could lead to changeable and windier conditions with spells of rain or heavier showers, some of which may be thundery. Temperatures may rise particularly in eastern and southern areas.

The rather changeable conditions may continue at the start of next week, with above-average temperatures, especially in the south and south-east of England. Drier weather could temporarily set in from the west with a transient high-pressure influence. The weather models have ruled out the recent possible colder variants towards the end of May.

The tendency is for the UK to remain generally warmer over the next week. However, slightly different solutions are on the table, with some of them tending to keep areas of low pressure close to or south of the UK, extending into south-west continental Europe. It is then more likely that the high pressure will be over or near Scandinavia and extend at least temporarily, to the northern and eastern parts of the UK. This could bring slightly drier and calmer conditions at times particularly in the northern and eastern areas.

In the other option low pressure systems move north or north-west of the UK which could bring wetter and windier conditions particularly in northern and western areas. This would lead to slightly drier and calmer conditions in the southern and perhaps eastern areas. In general more changeable conditions are more likely to prevail across much of the UK over the next week, with a south-west to westerly flow on average.

In the second week of June the low-pressure systems could remain near Iceland and extend towards the UK, with the renewed build-up of high pressure over Scandinavia or north-eastern Europe. This would signal a continuation of the rather changeable but warmer conditions and a more south-westerly flow dominating. However, there is a possibility that it could become drier and calmer at times as the Azores or Scandinavian high extends towards the UK.

In the third week of June conditions could continue to be generally quite changeable as low-pressure systems near Iceland move towards the UK at times. There is also a chance of low-pressure systems generally moving well north of the UK, allowing the high pressure of the Azores High to spread across the UK and parts of western continental Europe. This would mean warmer, calmer and drier weather on average.

To summarize we can expect more changeable and windy conditions in the north and drier and calmer conditions in the south. Although it could be slightly cooler in the north, temperatures are likely to be above average, while the south and south-east of the UK will be on the warmer side.

Can summer-like warm and dry conditions persist for longer later in June?