League Two: University of Reading experts predict how table would have looked

League Two clubs formally voted to end their season on Tuesday after previously indicating they were willing to do so last month.

Stevenage are currently bottom of the table and facing relegation to the National League but could be reprieved if Macclesfield Town are deducted points after being handed a fresh EFL misconduct charge on 1 June.

The Silkmen, who are three points above Stevenage, have already had 11 points deducted for previous rule breaches this season and have a further suspended two-point penalty hanging over them if they transgress again.

But what would have happened if the season had never been halted by the coronavirus pandemic?

The short answer is, of course, that we don't know, but - with the help of Professor James Reade and Dr Carl Singleton from the Economics Department at the University of Reading - BBC Sport has had a go at trying to predict how the final table might have looked.

• League One and League Two clubs vote to end season early

Predicting the future

What the points-per-game method cannot take into account is how the unplayed matches would have turned out.

Crewe still had to play three sides in the play-off race - Northampton, Port Vale and Colchester - while Swindon had a game in hand and only had fifth-placed Cheltenham to play of the sides chasing promotion.

In fact, Cheltenham may have had a big say in what might have happened - they had a game in hand on the sides around them and also still had to face fourth-placed Exeter and Gloucestershire rivals Forest Green.

This is where the University of Reading has been able to help.

Prof Reade and his team employed the same methods they use to forecast things like inflation or gross domestic product (GDP) to predict the results of each of the remaining games left in League Two.

The economists used 10,000 repetitions of their model - which predicts average goals scored for each side in a game - to work out the percentage chance of each team finishing in each position. The percentage drops as you go towards the middle of the division, as there are more chances that a side could finish in a higher or lower position than the one they are predicted.

• Where could your side have finished? Full predictions

The Devon dilemma

A huge match was due to take place on 23 March - not long after the league was halted - with third-placed Plymouth hosting their fourth-placed Devon rivals Exeter in one of the most significant derby games between the sides in years.

"You'd see a giant movement in Plymouth and Exeter depending upon the outcome of that match," Prof Reade told BBC Sport.

If Plymouth won then Prof Reade predicted they would have an 80% chance of promotion. A loss and it dropped to 45%.

For Exeter the odds were even more stark - victory gave them at a 53% chance of going up, whereas a loss slashed their chances of automatic promotion to just 18%.

"Given that match was taking place straight away, there are still then a remaining six or so games after that and you can imagine different trajectories from there," said Prof Reade.

"Plymouth might be discouraged by losing that match and could fade away very badly, but equally their efforts might be redoubled by losing that match and still turn it around, so you have both of those probabilities still happening in some proportion."

How it would have finished - with a twist

Prof Reade's predicted table was not significantly different to what we have ended up with via the points-per-game method, with Swindon winning the title and Cheltenham leapfrogging Exeter. There was one twist, however.

While Port Vale have missed out on a place in the play-offs by just a single point - with owner Carol Shanahan describing the decision to end the season early as "the hardest thing I've ever done" - our table has them finishing seventh.

Can Northampton count themselves slightly fortunate to be holding on to that final spot?

Would Stevenage have survived anyway?

Stevenage are currently bottom of the table using the points-per-game method, but although owner Phil Wallace had suggested to BBC Sport that his preference was to finish the season so they could "play our way out of trouble" - would they have managed to do so?

While the University of Reading model does still have Stevenage finishing bottom, the chances of them ending up in 24th place have lowered.

"Stevenage remain favourites for the drop, but their probability falls from 85.5% to 62.7%, which is nothing to be sneezed at," said Prof Reade after factoring in Macclesfield's latest points deduction.

"Macclesfield go from 6.4% for the drop to 34.2% - the two shifts in probabilities don't equal out as Morecambe are still down there. Their chances fall with this deduction from 8% to 3.1%."