It means almost all legal restrictions on social contact will be removed. Read more about what changes look like here
The peak of the current wave is not expected before mid-August and could lead to between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions per day, according to government scientific advisers
Nightclubs and large event organisers are being asked to require proof that people have had a Covid vaccination, negative test or natural immunity from a recent infection before letting them in
Pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and vocational exams in England next year are likely to get advance notice of topics, to ensure they are not disadvantaged by Covid disruption
'Having long Covid has taken away the spontaneity of life'
Athmaja ThottungalCopyright: Athmaja Thottungal
Dr
Athmaja Thottungal is a 50-year-old consultant anaesthetist from Rochester. Here's how long Covid has impacted her life:
I woke up today with a splitting headache. It was such a relief to know I don’t need to worry about
getting my son ready for school.
It's been almost 18 months since I had my personal and
professional encounter with Covid-19.
Personally, it has changed my life upside down twice now
and I’m still struggling to find my own feet.
I have been on the receiving end of healthcare many times in my
life - including having my two babies - but this was nothing that is comparable
to any of it.
Long Covid has taken away many things from me, especially the
spontaneity of my life.
I am functionally, physically, and professionally getting better
very slowly. I would say I am around 50-60% better than what I was after
the long Covid symptoms developed.
I am more appreciative of
even the smallest happiness of life and do not take anything for granted. The
priorities of life are clearer than ever.
WHO head urges rich nations to prioritise vaccine distribution
AFPCopyright: AFP
The head of the World Health Organization has urged wealthy nations to focus on providing coronavirus vaccines to poorer countries, rather than booster shots for their own populations.
Tedros Adhanom Ghrebreyesus said the distribution of vaccines was still "hugely uneven", at a time when the Delta variant was threatening to cause health systems to collapse.
Dr Mike Ryan, WHO director of health emergencies, complained that rich countries were behaving selfishly - wanting to "have our cake and eat it, then make some more cake and eat that as well".
'I thought I beat Covid when I left intensive care - that was 13 months ago'
Susie FarrellyCopyright: Susie Farrelly
We've been shining a spotlight on long Covid today, hearing from those who have been suffering with the condition.
One of those is Susie Farrelly, a 59-year-old nurse from Southampton:
I went
swimming yesterday and felt stronger than I had done for a while. However, this morning I was straight back
into the fatigue and brain fog.
Previously, I had been working in a busy hospital environment dealing with outpatients.
My working day used to be from 08:00 to
17:30 - now I struggle to do five hours work from home.
Today, I started at 07:30 and was
totally wiped out by 12:30.
Mentally and physically I
struggle with how unpredictable the onset of fatigue and brain fog - and many
other long Covid symptoms - can be.
I remember when I was being wheeled out of ICU [an intensive care unit] I thought I'd beaten Covid. The
reality is 13 months later I'm still battling with long Covid.
Nightclubs advised to ask for vaccine passports
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
As we reported earlier, nightclubs and large event organisers are being advised they should ask for proof that people have had their jabs.
Confirming that most Covid rules in England will be lifted on 19 July, Health Secretary Sajid Javid encouraged organisers to require attendees to show so-called vaccine passports.
Available through the NHS app, they show a person has natural immunity after contracting Covid, is double-jabbed or has tested negative.
However, the government's guidance is not mandatory, meaning organisers would not be legally required to follow it.
The move has received push-back from bar and club owners.
Michael Kill, who runs the Night Time Industries Association, said: "We have consistently opposed the use of Covid passports for access to industry events and venues - logistically it presents many issues."
Dutch PM apologises for easing restrictions too soon
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has apologised for "an error of judgement" in scrapping most coronavirus restrictions.
The easing three weeks ago led to infection levels surging to their highest this year. Curbs on bars, restaurants and nightclubs were reimposed on Friday.
Previously Mr Rutte had refused to take any blame for the opening up, describing it as a "logical step".
On Saturday, the country’s public health institute reported more than 10,000 new Covid cases, the most in a single day since December.
It comes as countries across Europe face rising Delta variant case numbers.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to address the problem when he speaks to the nation on Monday evening.
Reality Check
Will fewer people wear masks if not legally obliged to?
PA MediaCopyright: PA Media
While the government has confirmed legal coronavirus restrictions will end next Monday, that doesn’t mean the end of all precautions.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the government would “expect and recommend” the wearing of face coverings in enclosed and crowded spaces, despite it no longer being mandatory.
But the evidence around whether people do in fact wear masks if they are free to choose is sparse. When they were made to by law, the numbers of people wearing masks in England increased dramatically – although it had been rising slightly before that. That pattern has been seen in lots of other countries including Germany and the US.
That suggests moving from voluntary to mandatory mask-wearing leads – perhaps unsurprisingly – to more people wearing masks. Whether the reverse would happen now many people are accustomed to wearing face coverings is untested.
One review of the evidence found making it a legal requirement did not necessarily increase mask-wearing – but it varied from country to country.
Modelling published today by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggested an 80% reduction in all protective measures including mask-wearing and distancing could lead to 46,000 deaths by the end of the year, compared with 27,000 deaths if there was a 20% reduction.
But the researchers didn’t look at what would happen if you removed the legal requirement to wear masks in particular.
Cases remain high in Russia
Vitaliy Shevchenko
BBC Monitoring
The Russian government has reported more than 25,000 daily
new Covid-19 cases and more than 700 deaths for the fourth day in a row.
The capital, Moscow, is worst affected, with 5,403 new cases
and 107 deaths reported on 12
July.
However, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin told state TV he thought
the worst of the third wave might be over. "Thank God, we have overcome the
peak values, and now there is some stabilisation," he told Rossiya 1 TV on Sunday.
There are fears the actual number of Russians affected
by coronavirus may be much higher, with the authorities accused of
under-reporting the statistics.
Elsewhere in Russia, the far-eastern territory of Kamchatka
has ordered all bars, restaurants and cafes to close at 11pm local time
starting from 15 July.
In Siberia, the Republic of Buryatia has
emerged from a two-week lockdown. The ban on mass events is still in place, but
all shops, restaurants, hairdressers and other public spaces such as libraries
and museums will reopen, TASS news agency says.
Buryatia is the only Russian region to have
imposed such tight restrictions after Covid-19 numbers skyrocketed in June.
BBCCopyright: BBC
We don't know what will happen after reopening - scientist
Radio 4 PM
“We don’t really understand what will happen" when Covid restrictions are lifted, a leading government adviser has warned, adding that there is a “mixed message” from Downing Street.
Prof John Edmunds, a member of the government's Sage advisory group, told Radio 4's PM programme: "If you lift restrictions now then that will fuel this wave to some extent… at the same time, we have a countervailing force of closing schools.”
Having more infections over summer means more will be immune by autumn, however.
Prof Edmunds – who sits on the SPI-M modelling group of scientists – also urged people to remain cautious.
Speaker announces changes to Parliament as restrictions eased
The Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, has written to MPs about what the easing of lockdown restrictions will mean for Parliament.
He says the hybrid system of some MPs in the chamber and others taking part remotely will continue until the summer recess on 22 July.
There will be a return to fully physical proceedings in September, assuming there are no changes to the government's roadmap.
From 19 July, pass-holders will be able to use the public gallery again and barriers will be removed from the end of aisles in the chamber.
Ticks and crosses that were used to mark some seats out of bounds will no longer apply.
Tunisia calls for diaspora help amid Covid surge
Ahmed Rouaba
BBC News
Tunisia's government has appealed for help from citizens abroad after the authorities declared the country’s health
system had "collapsed", amid a rapid surge of the Delta variant which has led to an increase in hospitalisations.
"Donate money, medical and paramedical equipment," the Tunisian embassy in France said in a post on Facebook.
A spokesperson for the Tunisian ministry of health described the situation in hospitals as "catastrophic" - with medical staff exhausted and an acute shortage of hospital beds and oxygen.
The army has been deployed to enforce a new lockdown in some parts of the country - which has vaccinated only 12% of its population.
Tunisians based in Canada gathered last week in front of the parliament in Ottawa to urge the government
to send coronavirus vaccines to Tunisia.
PM's plan still reckless - Starmer
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says he thinks the plan outlined by the government to remove restrictions is "still reckless".
He said: "Don't just say to us, it's up to you to produce and follow guidance, tell us what the way forward is," adding: "Throwing off all the protections at the same time is still reckless."
"Let's do this in a safe way. What we would do is keep key protections in place, and by that I mean mandatory masks. by that I mean keep work at home rules as they are."
He adds that at the moment risk is "being outsourced" to businesses and the government's plan is like "putting a country in a car without a seatbelt".
Why is social distancing coming to an end in England?
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
People in England will no longer have to maintain social distancing from 19 July.
The requirement to maintain 1m-plus social distancing will end and there will be no capacity limits at sporting and entertainment venues.
The review says the success of the vaccination programme means fewer people are likely to be transmitting the virus.
Here’s a round-up of the key points from the Downing Street briefing:
The PM confirms the plan to lift legal restrictions
and social distancing on 19 July but says the country cannot just go back to
life before Covid
He warns the pandemic "is not
over" and mask use will still be advised in crowded and enclosed spaces
He says a "gradual return to work over the
summer" is expected rather than a rush back to the office en masse
The PM urges nightclubs and other venues to make use of
Covid passports as a means of entry
There will be new guidance for the
clinically extremely vulnerable on how to keep themselves safe
The existing border policy will continue to apply after 19
July, including quarantine for those coming back from red list countries
He says 19 July is the right time to ease coronavirus
restrictions because of the "natural firebreak" of the school
holidays
The PM says he hopes the roadmap is
irreversible but that it has to be a cautious approach
England’s chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty says the
rates of hospitalisation are "not trivial" and are rising but they are "way below" those of autumn and spring of both last year and this year
And Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, says vaccinations are reducing the overall chances of someone transmitting the virus by about 75%
Hospital admissions could peak at 2,000 a day - scientific advisers
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
The peak of the third wave of Covid infection across England is not expected before mid-August and could lead to 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions per day, according to the government's scientific advisers.
Modellers advising the government estimate that step 4 of the roadmap for England, along with the wave of infections, could be associated with 1,000 or more hospital admissions per day at the peak (with an estimate of 1,000 to 2,000 per day).
Deaths are expected to be between 100 and 200 per day at the peak of the wave, though there is a large amount of uncertainty in the modelling.
Papers newly released from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), conclude that "all modelled scenarios show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August".
Experts are urging the public to "go slow" once restrictions lift on 19 July, in order to curb infections and cut the number of people who will go on to die from Covid-19.
They recommend that workers do not all head back to the office from mid-July, continue to wear masks in crowded spaces and stay at home when infected or contacted by the NHS app or NHS Test and Trace.
Watch: Pandemic not over, warns Johnson
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has outlined the end of England's social distancing rules on 19 July, but has warned that the "pandemic is not over".
In a Downing Street news conference, Mr Johnson said that more deaths and hospitalisations from Covid would be seen, but that "now is the right time to proceed".
PM: Lockdown easing will only work if cautious
Esther Webber from Politico asks if there is a danger of mixed messaging from the government when it comes to easing restrictions.
She wants to know how advice to go slowly squares with talk of "freedom day".
The PM says yes this is a big package of measures and it will "only work if people are cautious".
He says in order for this to be irreversible it has to be cautious and everyone who is offered a vaccine should take it up.
What measures might be needed in autumn and winter?
Dan Bloom of The Mirror says he understands there could be up to 100 to 200 deaths a day, according to the modelling - is that a price the government is willing to pay for freedom, he wants to know?
The PM says the reality is that both deaths and hospitalisations are sadly going to rise, whenever you decide to unlock. "We simply have to recognise that", he adds.
Bloom also asks the scientists what measures might be needed this autumn and winter.
Chris Whitty says it has already been said there is likely to be an increase in flu and other respiratory diseases this winter - and now there would be Covid on top of this.
This would probably lead to people taking "sensible precautions" but that is different to there being restrictions, which is an issue for ministers, he adds.
It is not an inevitability that because of a surge, there will be anything ministers have to do, he adds.
The reality is that it is going to come in winter and possibly other winters, says the chief medical officer.
Live Reporting
Edited by Alex Kleiderman and Martha Buckley
All times stated are UK
Get involved
ReutersCopyright: Reuters -
England will move to the final stage of easing Covid restrictions on 19 July, the prime minister confirmed
-
It means almost all legal restrictions on social contact will be removed. Read more about what changes look like here
-
The peak of the current wave is not expected before mid-August and could lead to between 1,000 and 2,000 hospital admissions per day, according to government scientific advisers
-
Nightclubs and large event organisers are being asked to require proof that people have had a Covid vaccination, negative test or natural immunity from a recent infection before letting them in
-
Passengers complained of "total chaos" at Heathrow Airport, caused by more than 100 staff members off work or self-isolating
-
Pupils taking GCSEs, A-levels and vocational exams in England next year are likely to get advance notice of topics, to ensure they are not disadvantaged by Covid disruption
-
Scientists say they have detected irregularities in the blood of long Covid patients that could one day pave the way for a test for the condition
Athmaja ThottungalCopyright: Athmaja Thottungal AFPCopyright: AFP Susie FarrellyCopyright: Susie Farrelly Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images PA MediaCopyright: PA Media BBCCopyright: BBC Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images -
The PM confirms the plan to lift legal restrictions
and social distancing on 19 July but says the country cannot just go back to
life before Covid
-
He warns the pandemic "is not
over" and mask use will still be advised in crowded and enclosed spaces
-
He says a "gradual return to work over the
summer" is expected rather than a rush back to the office en masse
-
The PM urges nightclubs and other venues to make use of
Covid passports as a means of entry
-
There will be new guidance for the
clinically extremely vulnerable on how to keep themselves safe
-
The existing border policy will continue to apply after 19
July, including quarantine for those coming back from red list countries
-
He says 19 July is the right time to ease coronavirus
restrictions because of the "natural firebreak" of the school
holidays
-
The PM says he hopes the roadmap is
irreversible but that it has to be a cautious approach
-
England’s chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty says the
rates of hospitalisation are "not trivial" and are rising but they are "way below" those of autumn and spring of both last year and this year
-
And Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, says vaccinations are reducing the overall chances of someone transmitting the virus by about 75%
Getty ImagesCopyright: Getty Images
Latest PostThanks for joining us
Many thanks for joining us on our live page coronavirus coverage this Monday.
Today's writers have been: Dulcie Lee, Jennifer Meierhans, Lauren Turner, Sinead Wilson and Katie Wright.
The editors were Martha Buckley and Alex Kleiderman.
What happened in the UK today?
We're going to leave our live coverage of the coronavirus pandemic here for today.
Head over to BBC One in half an hour's time to watch BBC Panorama's Long Covid: Will I Ever Get Better? - or catch up later on BBC iPlayer (UK only)
Here's a recap of what happened today:
'Having long Covid has taken away the spontaneity of life'
Dr Athmaja Thottungal is a 50-year-old consultant anaesthetist from Rochester. Here's how long Covid has impacted her life:
I woke up today with a splitting headache. It was such a relief to know I don’t need to worry about getting my son ready for school.
It's been almost 18 months since I had my personal and professional encounter with Covid-19.
Personally, it has changed my life upside down twice now and I’m still struggling to find my own feet.
I have been on the receiving end of healthcare many times in my life - including having my two babies - but this was nothing that is comparable to any of it.
Long Covid has taken away many things from me, especially the spontaneity of my life.
I am functionally, physically, and professionally getting better very slowly. I would say I am around 50-60% better than what I was after the long Covid symptoms developed.
I am more appreciative of even the smallest happiness of life and do not take anything for granted. The priorities of life are clearer than ever.
WHO head urges rich nations to prioritise vaccine distribution
The head of the World Health Organization has urged wealthy nations to focus on providing coronavirus vaccines to poorer countries, rather than booster shots for their own populations.
Tedros Adhanom Ghrebreyesus said the distribution of vaccines was still "hugely uneven", at a time when the Delta variant was threatening to cause health systems to collapse.
Dr Mike Ryan, WHO director of health emergencies, complained that rich countries were behaving selfishly - wanting to "have our cake and eat it, then make some more cake and eat that as well".
'I thought I beat Covid when I left intensive care - that was 13 months ago'
We've been shining a spotlight on long Covid today, hearing from those who have been suffering with the condition.
One of those is Susie Farrelly, a 59-year-old nurse from Southampton:
I went swimming yesterday and felt stronger than I had done for a while. However, this morning I was straight back into the fatigue and brain fog.
Previously, I had been working in a busy hospital environment dealing with outpatients.
My working day used to be from 08:00 to 17:30 - now I struggle to do five hours work from home.
Today, I started at 07:30 and was totally wiped out by 12:30.
Mentally and physically I struggle with how unpredictable the onset of fatigue and brain fog - and many other long Covid symptoms - can be. I remember when I was being wheeled out of ICU [an intensive care unit] I thought I'd beaten Covid. The reality is 13 months later I'm still battling with long Covid.
Nightclubs advised to ask for vaccine passports
As we reported earlier, nightclubs and large event organisers are being advised they should ask for proof that people have had their jabs.
Confirming that most Covid rules in England will be lifted on 19 July, Health Secretary Sajid Javid encouraged organisers to require attendees to show so-called vaccine passports.
Available through the NHS app, they show a person has natural immunity after contracting Covid, is double-jabbed or has tested negative.
However, the government's guidance is not mandatory, meaning organisers would not be legally required to follow it.
The move has received push-back from bar and club owners.
Michael Kill, who runs the Night Time Industries Association, said: "We have consistently opposed the use of Covid passports for access to industry events and venues - logistically it presents many issues."
Read the full story. And find out more about vaccine passports here.
I've had long Covid for more than a year - will I ever recover?
BBC Panorama
BBC correspondent Lucy Adams first caught Covid last March.
But 16 months on she’s still suffering from fatigue, headaches, and vertigo.
Watch Lucy as she tries to find out what’s behind her symptoms - and whether she’ll ever feel well again:
Watch the full programme, Long Covid: Will I Ever Get Better? at 19:35 BST on BBC One or later on BBC iPlayer.
Dutch PM apologises for easing restrictions too soon
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has apologised for "an error of judgement" in scrapping most coronavirus restrictions.
The easing three weeks ago led to infection levels surging to their highest this year. Curbs on bars, restaurants and nightclubs were reimposed on Friday.
Previously Mr Rutte had refused to take any blame for the opening up, describing it as a "logical step".
On Saturday, the country’s public health institute reported more than 10,000 new Covid cases, the most in a single day since December.
It comes as countries across Europe face rising Delta variant case numbers.
French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to address the problem when he speaks to the nation on Monday evening.
Reality Check
Will fewer people wear masks if not legally obliged to?
While the government has confirmed legal coronavirus restrictions will end next Monday, that doesn’t mean the end of all precautions.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the government would “expect and recommend” the wearing of face coverings in enclosed and crowded spaces, despite it no longer being mandatory.
But the evidence around whether people do in fact wear masks if they are free to choose is sparse. When they were made to by law, the numbers of people wearing masks in England increased dramatically – although it had been rising slightly before that. That pattern has been seen in lots of other countries including Germany and the US.
That suggests moving from voluntary to mandatory mask-wearing leads – perhaps unsurprisingly – to more people wearing masks. Whether the reverse would happen now many people are accustomed to wearing face coverings is untested.
One review of the evidence found making it a legal requirement did not necessarily increase mask-wearing – but it varied from country to country.
Modelling published today by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggested an 80% reduction in all protective measures including mask-wearing and distancing could lead to 46,000 deaths by the end of the year, compared with 27,000 deaths if there was a 20% reduction.
But the researchers didn’t look at what would happen if you removed the legal requirement to wear masks in particular.
Cases remain high in Russia
Vitaliy Shevchenko
BBC Monitoring
The Russian government has reported more than 25,000 daily new Covid-19 cases and more than 700 deaths for the fourth day in a row.
The capital, Moscow, is worst affected, with 5,403 new cases and 107 deaths reported on 12 July.
However, Mayor Sergei Sobyanin told state TV he thought the worst of the third wave might be over. "Thank God, we have overcome the peak values, and now there is some stabilisation," he told Rossiya 1 TV on Sunday.
There are fears the actual number of Russians affected by coronavirus may be much higher, with the authorities accused of under-reporting the statistics.
Elsewhere in Russia, the far-eastern territory of Kamchatka has ordered all bars, restaurants and cafes to close at 11pm local time starting from 15 July.
In Siberia, the Republic of Buryatia has emerged from a two-week lockdown. The ban on mass events is still in place, but all shops, restaurants, hairdressers and other public spaces such as libraries and museums will reopen, TASS news agency says.
Buryatia is the only Russian region to have imposed such tight restrictions after Covid-19 numbers skyrocketed in June.
We don't know what will happen after reopening - scientist
Radio 4 PM
“We don’t really understand what will happen" when Covid restrictions are lifted, a leading government adviser has warned, adding that there is a “mixed message” from Downing Street.
Prof John Edmunds, a member of the government's Sage advisory group, told Radio 4's PM programme: "If you lift restrictions now then that will fuel this wave to some extent… at the same time, we have a countervailing force of closing schools.”
Having more infections over summer means more will be immune by autumn, however.
Prof Edmunds – who sits on the SPI-M modelling group of scientists – also urged people to remain cautious.
Speaker announces changes to Parliament as restrictions eased
The Speaker of the House of Commons, Sir Lindsay Hoyle, has written to MPs about what the easing of lockdown restrictions will mean for Parliament.
He says the hybrid system of some MPs in the chamber and others taking part remotely will continue until the summer recess on 22 July.
There will be a return to fully physical proceedings in September, assuming there are no changes to the government's roadmap.
From 19 July, pass-holders will be able to use the public gallery again and barriers will be removed from the end of aisles in the chamber.
Ticks and crosses that were used to mark some seats out of bounds will no longer apply.
Tunisia calls for diaspora help amid Covid surge
Ahmed Rouaba
BBC News
Tunisia's government has appealed for help from citizens abroad after the authorities declared the country’s health system had "collapsed", amid a rapid surge of the Delta variant which has led to an increase in hospitalisations.
"Donate money, medical and paramedical equipment," the Tunisian embassy in France said in a post on Facebook.
A spokesperson for the Tunisian ministry of health described the situation in hospitals as "catastrophic" - with medical staff exhausted and an acute shortage of hospital beds and oxygen.
The army has been deployed to enforce a new lockdown in some parts of the country - which has vaccinated only 12% of its population.
Tunisians based in Canada gathered last week in front of the parliament in Ottawa to urge the government to send coronavirus vaccines to Tunisia.
PM's plan still reckless - Starmer
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer says he thinks the plan outlined by the government to remove restrictions is "still reckless".
He said: "Don't just say to us, it's up to you to produce and follow guidance, tell us what the way forward is," adding: "Throwing off all the protections at the same time is still reckless."
"Let's do this in a safe way. What we would do is keep key protections in place, and by that I mean mandatory masks. by that I mean keep work at home rules as they are."
He adds that at the moment risk is "being outsourced" to businesses and the government's plan is like "putting a country in a car without a seatbelt".
Why is social distancing coming to an end in England?
People in England will no longer have to maintain social distancing from 19 July.
The requirement to maintain 1m-plus social distancing will end and there will be no capacity limits at sporting and entertainment venues.
The review says the success of the vaccination programme means fewer people are likely to be transmitting the virus.
So what else is changing?
Read our updated explainer to find out.
What did the PM announce?
Here’s a round-up of the key points from the Downing Street briefing:
Hospital admissions could peak at 2,000 a day - scientific advisers
The peak of the third wave of Covid infection across England is not expected before mid-August and could lead to 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions per day, according to the government's scientific advisers.
Modellers advising the government estimate that step 4 of the roadmap for England, along with the wave of infections, could be associated with 1,000 or more hospital admissions per day at the peak (with an estimate of 1,000 to 2,000 per day).
Deaths are expected to be between 100 and 200 per day at the peak of the wave, though there is a large amount of uncertainty in the modelling.
Papers newly released from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), conclude that "all modelled scenarios show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August".
Experts are urging the public to "go slow" once restrictions lift on 19 July, in order to curb infections and cut the number of people who will go on to die from Covid-19.
They recommend that workers do not all head back to the office from mid-July, continue to wear masks in crowded spaces and stay at home when infected or contacted by the NHS app or NHS Test and Trace.
Watch: Pandemic not over, warns Johnson
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has outlined the end of England's social distancing rules on 19 July, but has warned that the "pandemic is not over".
In a Downing Street news conference, Mr Johnson said that more deaths and hospitalisations from Covid would be seen, but that "now is the right time to proceed".
PM: Lockdown easing will only work if cautious
Esther Webber from Politico asks if there is a danger of mixed messaging from the government when it comes to easing restrictions.
She wants to know how advice to go slowly squares with talk of "freedom day".
The PM says yes this is a big package of measures and it will "only work if people are cautious".
He says in order for this to be irreversible it has to be cautious and everyone who is offered a vaccine should take it up.
What measures might be needed in autumn and winter?
Dan Bloom of The Mirror says he understands there could be up to 100 to 200 deaths a day, according to the modelling - is that a price the government is willing to pay for freedom, he wants to know?
The PM says the reality is that both deaths and hospitalisations are sadly going to rise, whenever you decide to unlock. "We simply have to recognise that", he adds.
Bloom also asks the scientists what measures might be needed this autumn and winter.
Chris Whitty says it has already been said there is likely to be an increase in flu and other respiratory diseases this winter - and now there would be Covid on top of this.
This would probably lead to people taking "sensible precautions" but that is different to there being restrictions, which is an issue for ministers, he adds.
It is not an inevitability that because of a surge, there will be anything ministers have to do, he adds.
The reality is that it is going to come in winter and possibly other winters, says the chief medical officer.